The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

[twilkerson]

This argument is one that my group gets into a lot. It usually escalates when point values are thrown into the conversation. I tend to gravitate toward d20 attacks as a center hub of my armies.

This is why I use Cyprien and Sonya so much... My odds are 1/2 chance to do at least 1 damage and there is nothing the other player can do about it. (unless they are soulborgs)

[bee]

That's certainly one reason the d20 holds such fascination for so many. "Ha, I hit you and you can't dodge it!"

Then again, good luck avoiding Anubians' skulls on a twent... d'oh!

[GreenLanturn]

Originally Posted by Kroc

Brilliant! I was wrong all along.

Right or wrong, I enjoyed reading the debate, and being enlightened by other minds in the community.

+rep is in order for a few people I think.

[GreyOwl]

If you want to play around with this interactively, go to the Customizing Tools in my signature and download the Probability Calculator spreadsheet. You can type in the number of dice you want to roll on either side and the minimum # of wounds you want to cause and it will show you the probability. You can even play around with auto skulls/shields or each skull/shield counting as 2, or whatever.

Playing around with it, you'll see Eclipse is right. For 1/1, the probability of causing a wound is 33.33%, at 2/2 it is 44.44%, but at 3/3 the odds tip over to the attacker at 50.93%.

[padlock]

If you gave me a figure with 4 attack and 4 defense, and then let me boost either attack or defense by 1, I think that I'd go for the extra defense.

My reasoning is that 4 attacks are often enough to land a hit on most units, whereas 4 defense is often not enough to protect you. And really, what good are all those shiny attack dice going to do for you if you aren't alive long enough to take advantage of them.

Of course, if higher defense figures ever became the norm, then I'd begin valuing higher attack again. I guess what I'm saying is that it is because the game is more attack oriented that I value the higher defense. Does that make any sense?

[GreyOwl]

That makes sense. I think the reason most figures have a higher attack is not because of the relative balance, but because the designere intentionally wanted to skew it that way in order to keep the game moving. Otherwise, you might have to spend 5 rounds trying to kill the same figure with no results. Like I did last night against Major Q9. I swear, I don't think I rolled a single skull in at least 3 rounds...

[goaliescaper]

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

There is also a way to skew the roll of a single dice: by rolling the dice instead of dropping it. The odds of a certain symbol to show then depend on what side it is rolling on.

The chance of skulls could jump to 75% on one side. (I do this when I have one attack die to roll.) Or, on another side shields could show 50% of the time, with a skull to show 25%.

The way you roll the dice can change outcomes, too.

MegaSilver

in other words cheating to increase your chances
TBH I've thought of doing that but Because it is technically cheating we have made rules against it in my group, but as long as your friends dont notice it go right ahead!



Back to the topic, I think that with the abundance of low A/D squads high defense leads to an advantage, as was stated previously 1v1 and 2v2 are in the defenders favor but 3v3 goes to the attackers 0.93 more, many squads don't have more than 3 attack so if you have more defense than 3 you typically have a statistical advantage over the squads that consist in the meta game, also the more dice the less chance of a blank out, which is what many 4 person squads count on when attacking figures(that they'll slip up just once).

[Just_a_Bill]

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

Thank you for understanding what I said earlier! When I roll the dice, I don't look at what side it is on, which is what some people on here thought. I just roll it.

Really? Here's what you actually said (emphasis mine) ...

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

There is also a way to skew the roll of a single dice: by rolling the dice instead of dropping it. The odds of a certain symbol to show then depend on what side it is rolling on.

The chance of skulls could jump to 75% on one side. (I do this when I have one attack die to roll.) Or, on another side shields could show 50% of the time, with a skull to show 25%.

The way you roll the dice can change outcomes, too.

It sure seems like you flat-out admitted to trying to "beat the odds" and now are backpedaling by claiming you never look at the side you're rolling. If (as you've stated) you did try to keep the die rolling along a single axis, but did not pre-select which axis that was, then what on earth was the point of rolling that way?

Your statements are contradictory. Perhaps you should carefully choose which official position you want to stand by:

• I was definitely cheating but didn't realize it because I thought Heroscape was a dexterity game, but now I know better and will never do that again.
  
  
• I was definitely cheating and realized it, but now that I've inadvertently outed myself I want to reform so people will still play with me.
  
  
• I was trying to cheat but failing, because nobody can throw a cubic solid against a planar surface and expect to keep it rolling perfectly along a single axis, unless they just tip it/plop it onto the table with minimal actual rolling — so the attempted cheating didn't really matter except as unintended entertainment for my opponents.
  
  
• I don't really know what I'm talking about and just wanted to be part of the conversation. I take it all back.

Maybe you should pick the one you can live with, and then live according to your pick.

[goaliescaper]

Originally Posted by loborocket

If it can be done MegaSilver is wasting his time playing Heroscape. he needs to take those skills to the casino and play some craps where he can really break the house.

In Vegas a consistant statistical difference of only a couple of percentage points could earn you a ton of money.

and a couple broken knees if they catch him

[Sherman Davies]

Originally Posted by Just_a_Bill

Your statements are contradictory. Perhaps you should carefully choose which official position you want to stand by:

• I was definitely cheating but didn't realize it because I thought Heroscape was a dexterity game, but now I know better and will never do that again.
  
  
• I was definitely cheating and realized it, but now that I've inadvertently outed myself I want to reform so people will still play with me.
  
  
• I was trying to cheat but failing, because nobody can throw a cubic solid against a planar surface and expect to keep it rolling perfectly along a single axis, unless they just tip it/plop it onto the table with minimal actual rolling — so the attempted cheating didn't really matter except as unintended entertainment for my opponents.
  
  
• I don't really know what I'm talking about and just wanted to be part of the conversation. I take it all back.

My vote's for #2.

Seriously, though - I think we can let it drop after Just_a_Bill's post. I'm sure the kid's learned his lesson now, and he's publicly promised not to do it again.

[SuperflyTNT]

Back to the topic at hand, now that we know MegaSilver is a completely bollocksed cheater who is now amending his ways...

Kroc, I've read this thread front to back again and I think people may be missing the point. Let me put it more succinctly:

YES. The odds of rolling a skull is 25% higher than rolling a shield. This is settled law.

Throwing more dice does NOT increase your odds of getting more skulls, it simply gives you a POTENTIAL to roll more skulls. Same with shields - it doesn't increase your odds of rolling a shield, it simply allows you more opportunity to do so.

Here's the part that seems to be missed:

The odds of rolling an EXTRA skull required to cause damage to your oponent is STILL very low, as the odds of rolling multiple skulls precipitously decreases with every additional skull.

So, in short: It is indeed a myth to think that having an exra skull on the die is a huge advantage; You need an EXTRA skull to cause a wound.


Well done, Kroc. Very thought-provoking and this has actually altered the way I think of army builds.

[Just_a_Bill]

Originally Posted by SuperflyTNT

The odds of rolling a skull is 25% higher than rolling a shield. This is settled law.

Whatever country passed that law apparently also has faulty calculators. We can say that a skull is 50 percent more likely than a shield, or we can say that it is 16.7 percentage points more likely. I can't figure out any way to come up with a 25.

Throwing more dice does NOT increase your odds of getting more skulls, it simply gives you a POTENTIAL to roll more skulls. Same with shields - it doesn't increase your odds of rolling a shield, it simply allows you more opportunity to do so.

When I throw more dice it certainly does increase my odds of getting more skulls. Whether you call it odds, chances, or potential, the number of expected skulls always increases with the number of dice. What two things are you trying to draw a distinction between here?

The odds of rolling an EXTRA skull required to cause damage to your oponent is STILL very low, as the odds of rolling multiple skulls precipitously decreases with every additional skull.

Can you explain this precipitous decrease in skull-rolling odds?

So, in short: It is indeed a myth to think that having an exra skull on the die is a huge advantage; You need an EXTRA skull to cause a wound.

Huhwhat? Having an extra skull is no good because you need an extra skull?

Either I must be an idiot, or you must have not waited long enough for the vicadin to wear off before posting, because I am thoroughly baffled by almost everything you wrote. What am I missing?