Decision 2016

[vegietarian18]

I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things. I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.

[dok]

Originally Posted by vegietarian18

I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things.

I'm not sure why you're so resistant to believing what the polling trends and exit poll data pretty clearly suggests, but OK

Originally Posted by vegietarian18

I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.

No, I think that's actually a large part of the answer, but not like the primaries. Rather, much more expanded early voting makes it much harder for transient news to influence the election so heavily.

The other thing that would be nice would be for the media coverage to become more inoculated against sensationalist stories and more issue focused. That would be a tough change to make.

[wriggz]

Originally Posted by vegietarian18

I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things. I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.

How far are we off from "Media Assassins" next election (if we are not there now). The Access Hollywood thing was worrying enough, but the timing of the Email this was very questionable.


The fact that someone didn't manufacture a real criminal case against trump is actually pretty amazing. Would anyone have really doubted a few of women coming forward in the same way they did with Cosbey? Sure it could all be baloney but at that point in the game it would not matter. Hell with photoshop it would not be hard to show that Trump was a Clansman, and again it is very believable. Again the offending Journalist could just say "Oops" at the end of it all and it is all forgiven.


What is really worrying (to me at least) is that this means people are deciding on Personality not platform. That is terrifying. Logically I know many people go with the person that has the simplest message they agree with "Lower Taxes" regardless of how crazy (or Missing) the full platform is. But for some reason I keep subscripting higher thought and reasoning to peoples decision making.


It seems if you can't put it into 120 character it is not worth listening to, and that is a scary place to be.

[Rich10]

Originally Posted by vegietarian18

I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories.

There's nothing new with respect to managing the timing of stories. The Trump tape was released on the date it was expected to do the most damage. The Wikileaks release of information was timed to do the most damage.

The Comey letter came about as a result of information from an investigation into Anthony Weiner. If there was any attempt to time this, I haven't heard it. Yes, there was a real question as to whether the letter should have happened, but the rebuttal is that leaks would have been as bad or worse. Of course, if Clinton had released everything up front, the Comey letter would not have happened. I have no idea if it would have changed the outcome of the election.

[Dad_Scaper]

There is literally nothing that Clinton could have released that would have prevented the FBI from finding out that Weiner's wife sometimes used her appropriately-named husband's laptop. And apparently there was nothing on it to find. And we don't know what the state of the investigation was at the time of the first Comey letter; I suspect the investigation had been dormant for quite some time.

Comey specifically said it was something people should know, which I find - after a career in the criminal justice system - incredibly offensive. The whole point of not releasing information during the pendency of an investigation is that outsiders do not have enough information to put it in context, and will misinterpret it, which happened with both Comey contributions.

It's all water under the bridge, vis a vis the election, but it truly bugged me, as a guy who cares about system integrity.

[Swamper]

Protests are still going strong.

Regardless of whether you think they're justified or not, protesting is not the way to convince Trump voters that their choice was wrong. If anything, seeing the liberal, PC crowd out pitching a fit will just make Trump supporters even more stubborn and sure they made the right choice.

That's the view I'm getting from SC, anyway. Can't hardly walk through Wal-Mart without seeing several "Make America Great" caps and hearing discussions about "crybaby" liberals. I'm hearing a lot of talk about a double standard, too. Like of Trump supporters were protesting, a lot of people I've heard think he and his supporters would be ripped apart in the media.

That's how things are looking down South, anyway.

[Dad_Scaper]

I don't think they're trying to persuade anyone of anything. They're just outraged and expressing themselves.

Their demonstrations are principled, in the time-honored way all such protests are principled. His divisive rhetoric left many people on the outside looking in.

Is it principled to mock them, and call them names? I'm not saying you are, I'm just asking. I'm also much more troubled by the kkk parades than I am these protests. Ideally the President Elect would repudiate the parades in his name. Time will tell.

[Hahma]

Originally Posted by dok

This is true, but the atmosphere has changed. At the school where my wife works, there were three separate incidents today where minority students were harassed ("go back where you came from" and the like).

Kids will be kids, and this isn't the same level as swastikas, but we shouldn't discount the reality here. Trump's election has validated a certain flavor of nativism that makes this sort of behavior a lot closer to the mainstream than it was before.

On Thursday, the 10th, when I came home from work, my 13 year-old twin daughters told me about some boys at school that formed a wall around some Hispanic kids and shouted "Build that wall, Build that wall".

I believe this was the first time that the Superintendent in her tenure had to visit any school (their middle-school) and talk to students about this kind of behavior. One of my daughter's social studies teachers tore one of those boys a new asshole in his class (I love that teacher). He's not afraid to yell and straighten kids out that misbehave with substitutes, or that talk in class when they are not supposed to. So he really let this kid have it and stood over the kid as he apologized to one of the kids (a girl), who he taunted with "build that wall" crap.

There was another thing that came up earlier in the week. My daughters told us about a girl leaving school to be home schooled because of bullying. She's considered Emo and likes to change the color of her hair a lot, maybe is a "cutter" (though there are others at the school that are), but is a nice kid that may be dealing with depression issues. Anyway, the girls showed us an Instagram thread where someone came on there with a made up name and started tormenting the girl. Telling her that she's ugly, that she should kill herself, and that she's a dirty transgender (she's not, but either way, it's wrong to say). She had some friends stick up for her in that thread, and I was enlightened to the "language" these 8th grade girls were using.

If my kids ever treated anyone like the above two examples (or in any other imaginable nasty scenario), I would kick their ass from here to the moon. My wife and I have always taught our kids to be tolerant and accept differences and to never treat others badly, nor be friends with those that do. It's totally unacceptable behavior and will never be tolerated by me.

It's funny how Trump and his supporters are bothered by these protests (though I think the destruction of property is wrong in protests), when they said they'd protest if Hillary won.

Some people think that the protests are simply because their candidate didn't win, but it's really about people being afraid about what's going to happen to the real marginalized people. People are worried about families being broken apart, LGBT people losing rights (for people not from Indiana, Pence is an evil PoS and hates LGBT community), Muslims have to be worried about being tormented, etc.

The same is true for the schools that offer counseling to students. Now my first instinct was that this was liberal coddling at it's worst, for counseling students because their candidate didn't win. And I still think that if it is for those students. But, if it's for students that have actual fears as I mentioned above with regards to the protests, then I understand it. This is unprecedented territory, when a Presidential candidate stirred up so much hate towards certain groups of people. No, most people that voted for Trump aren't hate filled, but there are some that are, enough that legitimizes the fear and uncertainty that many have now.

I believe that what Comey did certainly did have a big enough impact to help Trump win the election. That was totally irresponsible IMO. There was nothing there, and no reason to announce an issue if you don't know there is an issue, and I have a difficult time believing that his staff went through hundreds of thousands of emails in that time before he announced it was all for nothing. Well too late now folks, the horse has left the barn so to speak. Keep in mind, that there was a lot of early voting going on, so during the time between the first and second announcement by Comey, there were a lot of people that voted.

As for the Democrats, while Hillary was quite qualified, though with some flaws, her time in service and link to Bill gave a lot more ammunition for the Trump campaign to bring to light. So that was one thing that hurt. But I don't think she was very inspiring either. When a candidate's best strategy is to lay low and let the other candidate implode, that's not saying too much to me. It became more about voting "against" Trump and not "for" Clinton. Certainly the same is true for the people voting "against" Clinton, but as much as a jagoff that Trump is, he brought out passion and a sense of change for those that really wanted to see some change. Some people just wanted a change in the same old crap in Washington and that, and the mistrust of Clinton were enough to get a vote for Trump. Though it's funny in a sense in that there are so many lobbyists in the Trump camp, so the voters that were tired of lobbyists and big business running Washington, nothing is changed.

I think that BLM didn't help either. I get the core concept and I agree that there needs to be something done about the way the judicial system has worked for some people, but I don't think they went about it the best of ways. For one thing, when you name your movement Black Lives Matter, it really sends mixed messages to many people. For one thing, it can appear to mean that other lives don't matter. It can make people question why they aren't protesting black on black crime etc. They also generalized all police and people in the legal system as being racist and that the whole system was rigged to work against blacks. This generalization caused a lot of divisiveness, as while there are some bad elements in the police and legal system for sure, there are also a lot more good people just trying to do the best job they can, and of course the families of those people that took issue with damning generalization. That said, part of why BLM and other movements came about is because of the same generalizations that blacks are criminals, thugs, gangbangers, welfare frauds etc. Not only were those perceptions out there, but the system seemed to actually act on those perceptions in many cases. So the middle-class white people and justice system pretty much got a taste of what it feels like to be generalized in a bad light. Sure there are plenty of racists, just like there are plenty of black criminals, thugs, etc, but in both cases, most of the people aren't this and get fed up when they are lumped in with the dregs of society.

Kapernick certainly did his part in bringing people to Trump's side IMO. I know of so many people that are so pissed off about his kneeling and generalizing the entire country as being bad, that not only that strengthen their resolve for Trump, but also got them to boycott the NFL. People should not dismiss the power of social media and the patriot movement.

Another thing that hurt Clinton, is Obamacare. While there are some great things about it, such as not being turned away for existing conditions and the extension of coverage for children until they are 26, there are some not so good things that affected those that ended up voting for Trump. I talked to a nurse practitioner at work the other day and she was self-insured until recently when becoming an employee with the hospital I work at. She said that over the past 8 years, her insurance had gone up from $200/month, to $2,200/month and that she was pissed that she's paying for people that are too lazy to work. Well for one thing, I don't know the entirety of truth to her claim of insurance costs, though it may be truth. But I believe there is still Medicaid for people that aren't working for certain reasons. Also, whenever I hear about "lazy people not willing to work" comments, while I agree that there are some that fit that bill for sure, I wonder if these people making these comments actually believe there are good jobs out there for every working age person in this country that would be willing and able to work? Say that everyone that can, wants to work, are there jobs for all those people? Are there jobs that are such that they can have insurance through those employers and afford a place to live, childcare, a vehicle etc.? I don't think so. But there are a lot of people that don't think that much into it, they just react because their insurance costs skyrocketed and get the feeling that it's that way to be able to support lazy people.

The other thing about Obamacare is that a lot of jobs had to be cut down to fewer hours per week, because otherwise the employer would have to pay insurance. Small businesses often can't all of a sudden bring in more money to cover the added costs of providing insurance. Heck, I know it affected the school system in Indiana in that they had to cut jobs and reduce hours of some people because otherwise they would by law have to provide insurance. There isn't any room in the budgets for that (thanks Pence for hating public school system and using tax money for charter schools that are not held to the same standards as public schools and don't produce better students, but the money is good for the private sector businesses behind them).

So while Obamacare has some good qualities, there are some things that pissed off enough people to vote for Trump, because with Clinton, it would be more of the same.

Sorry for such a long post. I came late to this party and have been thinking about things and having many discussions about this campaign and results.

[Hahma]

Originally Posted by Swamper

Protests are still going strong.

Regardless of whether you think they're justified or not, protesting is not the way to convince Trump voters that their choice was wrong. If anything, seeing the liberal, PC crowd out pitching a fit will just make Trump supporters even more stubborn and sure they made the right choice.

That's the view I'm getting from SC, anyway. Can't hardly walk through Wal-Mart without seeing several "Make America Great" caps and hearing discussions about "crybaby" liberals. I'm hearing a lot of talk about a double standard, too. Like of Trump supporters were protesting, a lot of people I've heard think he and his supporters would be ripped apart in the media.

That's how things are looking down South, anyway.

The Trump people said they would have protested had Clinton won. So they are hypocrites, and yes, would have been ripped in the media.

The difference is that for many, the people protesting now, are protesting because of legitimate fears based on the divisive nature of the Trump campaign and the way the haters will be emboldened by the Trump Presidency. "If Trump can say it, so can we", "Our President can grab women, wants Mexicans out, hates Muslims etc., so we can do the same and help get them out." People that have hate in their heart will see Trump's win as a green light to legitimize their hate (I'm not saying it's rational though).

If Clinton would have won, how many people are in fear that their family would be torn apart, their children would be bullied, attacked and maybe killed? How many people would fear for their daughters being assaulted more than they already likely do because of sick bastards?

[dok]

Regretting my recent rep to you because it means I can't rep this post. Anyway, a few scattered responses:

Originally Posted by Hahma

I have a difficult time believing that his staff went through hundreds of thousands of emails in that time before he announced it was all for nothing.

Not actually that hard when you think about it.

Yes, there were hundreds of thousands of e-mails total on the e-mail account, but all that matters is how many of those are among the 33,000 "missing" e-mails that Clinton didn't hand over. For the purposes of the election, nobody cares about e-mails not involving Clinton. So:

1. Compile a table of unique identifiers of all the e-mails you already have from the server (I assume this had already been done, but not a hard task even if for some amazing reason it hadn't)
2. Filter out all e-mails in the new set not sent to or from Clinton's e-mail server.
3. Compile a table of unique identifiers for all the remaining e-mails in the new set
4. Cross-reference and throw out all the e-mails that are dupes of ones you've already reviewed.
5. Take the remaining set (maybe 1000 e-mails? Even that sounds high to me, but say 2000, high end?) and have some staffers go through them by hand and flag any that arguably contain State Department work-related content.
6. Take the flagged (few dozen?) e-mails and have the higher-ups review them to see if they merit further action.

Given the expertise available at the FBI, the coding tasks (1-4) should take NO MORE than a day. Going through the remaining e-mails is just a manpower problem; you could make it take a few hours if you put enough people on it.

Honestly, it shouldn't have taken a full week.

Originally Posted by Hahma

For one thing, when you name your movement Black Lives Matter, it really sends mixed messages to many people. For one thing, it can appear to mean that other lives don't matter.

I don't disagree that it's poor branding. But to me, the "all lives matter" response has always sounded like someone running around at race for the cure screaming "all cures matter". I mean, you're not wrong, but shouldn't it be obvious that you're missing the point?

Originally Posted by Hahma

Kapernick certainly did his part in bringing people to Trump's side IMO. I know of so many people that are so pissed off about his kneeling and generalizing the entire country as being bad, that not only that strengthen their resolve for Trump, but also got them to boycott the NFL. People should not dismiss the power of social media and the patriot movement.

I disagree here; I really doubt more than a tiny number of people were actually convinced to vote for Trump by Kaepernick's protest. It's more that it was red meat for already-strong supporters.

(I was never offended by Kaepernick, but I did take some issue with Megan Rapinoe following suit. The right to a nonviolent, non-disruptive protest is important in a free society, but Rapinoe was choosing to represent the USA and to protest it at the same time, which is at least somewhat inconsistent.)

I'm not going to go point by point on the Obamacare stuff but I have addressed some of the health care cost inflation numbers in an earlier post.

[Dysole]

As I was reading Hahma's post, I'm reminded of what I posted on facebook on Thursday coalescing my thoughts and fears and plans going forward (some things have shifted slightly but I'm still in wait and see mode). It's probably easier for me to just post it here than reiterating everything.

Spoiler Alert!

I told myself to wait some and allow myself to process the election. I'm not quite sure I'm finished processing, but I've done enough to feel I need to share what I am thinking. Bear with me as much of it is still raw, but in some ways I think I need to capture that rawness before it fades.

Donald Trump is my new president. I don't know what that will look like. As a Christian, I feel I shall have to balance my respect for the civil authority placed over me and my call to bring good into the world. I hope that I won't have to pick between those. God is sovereign. I believe this and I even had some people tell me something to that effect while I was still reeling. That hasn't sunk in because it's currently covered by a mountain of other feelings, but I want to stand by that.

I had a bad gut feeling all of the last week that Trump was going to win and I discussed this many times over with friends and my therapist, but I had convinced myself it wasn't going to happen. As Trump continued to do well on election night, my anxiety levels shot through the roof. I shared the image of Mabel Pines from Gravity Falls deciding to go to Sweater Town all over the place as it encapsulated everything I was feeling. In the episode, Mabel had what seemed to be a promising event turn into a living nightmare and she didn't know how to cope. I felt something I had never felt before in an election. Fear. I had felt disappointment before (2008 when I was rooting for McCain), but never fear. The only time I can remember feeling this scared was a little over two years ago when I pulled over to the side of the road and called my mom in tears telling her I was contemplating suicide. In my conversations with friends as things were unfolding, my tone became more and more panicked. One of my friends legitimately worried for me and I actually even starting swearing. I have never dropped an f bomb before that evening, but I dropped several. I called my mom in a frenzy and ended up waking her up from sleep (she had decided to wait until the next morning to see what happened). We talked and she calmed me down, but it was all still there. I didn't fall asleep until sometime between 3 or 4 that night and woke up at 7 and last night wasn't that much better for sleep.

Are my fears overblown? I don't know. Here is what I am aware of are likely tangible differences for me personally in a Trump presidency as opposed to a Clinton presidency. Some of these things are still what ifs, but I'm going off of what I've seen as proposed policies and answers to these things are stuff that kept me up that night and what are the source of my fears going forward.

1. I have no idea if I'm going to get kicked off of health insurance for my "preexisting condition" of being transgender, something which is currently guaranteed by the ACA. Without health insurance, I am in a very rough spot to take care of any medical needs that may arise from my transition or even just things like a doctor's visit. I am currently on hormones to assist with the transition and after having been on them, I can safely say that removing them would be equivalent to taking away my glasses and contacts. I can function without them, but the difference in my quality of life is stark. I'm not sure how it will shake out in Oregon, but I'm likely to be better off than trans people in other states.

2. Any hope I had of adding non discrimination laws for sexual orientation or gender identity on a federal level are dead for the near future. I am currently looking for a job and when my mom sent me a potential opportunity in Arizona, I had to say "I can't risk that. Arizona still allows me to get fired for being lesbian or transgender." Under a Clinton presidency, I knew it would be a priority so I could look into this position without that worry. In a tough job market, my options got much thinner as I have to stick to places where my job, my housing, and my applications for credit can't be halted because someone has an objection to my being gay or trans. If Trump also repeals the executive order protecting federal contractors from discrimination, I'm in a rough spot potentially accepting government jobs. Oregon currently provides these protections, which is nice since it's where I live. I can only imagine if I lived elsewhere.

3. If Trump repeals the current executive order regarding transgender people and passports, I'm not sure what I'm going to have to do to update my passport. I put it off because it wasn't something I thought I needed to rush, but I currently don't have the discretionary income to pay for a new passport and unless things change after January 20th, I'll be stuck with a passport that doesn't match my issued state license which could cause all sorts of problems if I have to go to another country. Other legal documentation may be more difficult.

4. I am not currently in a relationship or married, but when I do end up married, I now have to worry about a bunch of other issues regarding my future marriage. While I don't think it's likely Obergefell gets reversed anytime soon (see what's happened with challenges to Roe v. Wade with conservative courts), it's possible. If so, that means that I am again limited to places that would recognize that marriage. It's also uncertain to me whether or not I will have access to spousal benefits from Social Security unless the state I'm in recognizes that.

5. I feel like a large chunk of this country has basically said they don't want me or don't care enough regarding those who really don't. Let me explain myself. After I had realized I was trans, but before I came out, both Caitlin Jenner and the North Carolina HB2 law among others filled the newsfeed which allowed me to see how people who were unaware of my situation reacted. Some of those reactions made me feel unpleasant. I also got to witness the Republican party in the primaries have candidate after candidate attack my self worth and defend the laws which seemed like they were wanting me to just stay in the closet. I watched after I came out as in the wake of Orlando, a non discrimination bill for LGBT people was shot down by the GOP. It felt like they were sending a message to me loud and clear. "WE DON'T WANT YOU." I have reservations about the Democratic Party and its relationship with the LGBT community, but they seemed to actually be trying to listen to what LGBT people wanted, so I felt I was basically forced into voting Democrat to survive. Not much of Trump's campaign was focused on the LGBT community, but Mike Pence is a completely different story. His past words and actions reinforce that "You don't belong here and it'd be better if you didn't exist." feeling. I wonder if this presidency will embolden people who are awful people to harass me and potentially hurt me. I'm white, Oregonian, and apparently pass decently well as female so maybe I'll be safe, but I don't know that. And if someone does assault me and finds out I'm trans and continues to assault me further or even kills me, the trans panic defense is not illegal in any state but California. (the person was so distraught at discovering this person was trans that they entered a state of temporary insanity) Either way, this presidency on an immediate gut level felt like everyone validating all of this stuff and saying "Yes, this is something we approve of." I know that there are many of my friends who lean Republican who do not feel this way and who support me. It just feels hard to agree when it feels like a straight rejection of who you are from the party they support. I apologize if this sounds unfair, but I'm not really sure how else I'm supposed to take it.

All of those uncertainties and unknowns freaked me out and continue to freak me out. I'm not the only one. I have heard in the past 24 hours, people of so many different minority groups afraid for their future and/or sharing stories of people who've already gone after them. I'm not Muslim, Hispanic, or any of the other groups who feel like targets right now so I can't speak to those fears on a personal level (although in some way it is similar to the "voting for Trump feels very much like validating all of the stuff that was said") but I remain worried. I remain worried about our future economy with the tax plan I have seen. I remain worried about what we will do to reduce our energy footprint. I remain worried about how our foreign relations will play out. I remain worried for the people of our country as we move to a more service based economy, many positions becoming automated with the march of technology, and the growing mountain of student debt from people trying to better their opportunities.

I don't know if my gut feelings on all of this will come to pass. There's things Trump wants to accomplish that I think are good ideas. I want to be wrong about Trump. I want to be wrong about the GOP. I want to be wrong about all of this. I am skeptical it happens, but until my fears are realized it is all speculation. We need to work together. We need to listen to each other. A lot more. I've been bad about this. To my friends who lean conservative and to the right, I want to work with you.There are plenty of things I agree with on the right side of the aisle. Please try to work with me as well. To my friends who lean liberal, we will have to work on a personal level to get things we care about politically done since the majority on a federal level is not liberal.

This election was very close. The popular vote went to Clinton. The electoral vote went to Trump. There were many close victories for Trump. Clinton did not win the popular vote by a whole lot. Shift things around and we could've been looking at a narrow Clinton victory. That tells me that we make a grave error if we try to leave behind one side or the other. I'm going to try to do my part. To continue to find common ground. To look the person in the eye who disagrees with me, but is hurting and ask them what I can do. To listen. To hear what everyone is saying. Those who are like me, those who aren't like me, those I agree with, and those I don't. I'll probably be imperfect at it, but I'd rather try. I'm asking you to join me in this. There's been a lot of bad things thrown about this election and I want to be better than that.

~Dysole, building a plan for her future

[Dad_Scaper]

So, the White House has its first staffer. Stephen Bannon, chief strategist for the President of the United States. One of the most powerful people on earth, a notorious racist, anti-Semite, corrupt, vile man.

Here we go!