How often will a Master beat a Novice?

[Kroc]

A Novice is a player who has just learned the basic rules and important special rules—like never putting an order marker on a unit if another unit bonds with it. They have probably played three or four times.

Defining a Master is obviously harder. The simplest definition is someone others fear to play. For a discussion of a better definition you might want to go to “Mastering the Game.” It is still a work in progress. There seems to be a general consensus that spider_poison and NWOjedi are masters, but there is no definitive list.

So what percentage of the time do you expect the Master to beat the Novice? Enter your vote above.

EDIT: You should imagine the two players are in a competitive setting, for example a tournament. Obviously few players (masters or non) would be this mean to a novice.

If you think Heroscape is 100% luck then you want to vote 50% above, because each is equally likely to win. If you think Heroscape is 60% skill and 40% luck you should vote 80% above, because the Master will win 60% of the time because of her skill and half the remaining games.


To explain a little further, this is an offshoot of two very interesting threads: “Is Heroscape more luck or skill?” and “Mastering the Game.” Both are trying to answer the question of whether Heroscape is a skill based game or one that is basically based on luck.

In “Is Heroscape more luck or skill?” Sarpedon pointed out that with two equally skilled opponents the outcome is essentially 100% luck. Since each is as good as the other the only deciding factor must be the randomness of the dice. What this means is that the question in that thread could be read to mean many different things, and I think has inspired many heated arguments there. For example one person held out that Heroscape was 100% luck because when he played with his friends that was the way it was. But thinking about what Sarpedon said, obviously those people always played together and had about the same skill.

The luck versus skill topic also keeps coming up in “Mastering the Game” as well. In fact someone (NWOjedi)said that in pinball 90% of the time a Master (Division A) could beat a Novice (Division B or C), inspiring this poll. NWOjedi thinks that it’s about 50% luck, so I assume he will choose 75% above. (The Master will win half the time due to skill, and half of the remaining games due to luck.) Obviously others think he’s a master because he’s incredibly lucky.

Since this seems to be a hot topic I decided it was worth one more poll to ask the question SVD997 asked in his poll with a different spin, and hopefully wording that will make the answer clearer.

TOTALLY OPIONATED EDIT, READ AT YOUR OWN RISK BEFORE VOTING:

Originally Posted by mccombju

The Raw Data:
Spider_Poison boasts an 83.7% win rate [at tournaments].
Nwojedi boasts an ~82.8% win rate at tournaments
Lonewolf has an 86.2% win rate at tournaments

I thought this was a valuable enough contribution to this discussion that I should link to it in my opening post. Note that the average tournament player is surely better than the Novice as described above.

[Sokol]

I've played a lot of Heroscape against my children over the past year and thought I knew the rules well. I competed in my first tournament at NHSD and lost 3 out of 4 games to players who knew the game better, were more skilled, and had played many more players over their Heroscape lifetime than I had.

I think this will normally be the rule and exceptions will be rare.

[1Mmirg]

Until you see a Master play HS, you don't realize how much skill/strategy is in this game. Blue Dane, who pretty much wins every tournament he is in here is FL, is one of these guys who studies the game carefully and makes moves that the average player just doesn't think of. He is quite good, perhaps not a Master, but quite good. I can only imagine what a player like Spider_Poison is to see in person. (Wish I could afford GenCon...) All I know is that I have a lot to learn, that's for sure...

People sometimes like to say the game is about armies and/or numbers of commons, luck, etc., and those are factors, but a Master takes that into consideration--e.g. choosing armies that, as Rÿchean puts it (roughly), they know well and know how to play well.

However, it is important to realize that there is the chance for a lot of luck to be added into HS. My daughter's roles have allowed her to take some remarkable victories, when all odds were against her. Over 10 games, the Novice will be sorely beaten by the Master, I believe.

Nice thread, Kroc. Thanks!

[boom]

There are definitely opportunities in this game to tip the odds in your favor, negating some of the luck (bad) that could bite you. A master would hold the edge over a novice the vast majority of the time.

[Dualahorn]

The master should win most of the time. The only reason they should lose would be due to bad rolls.

[SuperflyTNT]

75-85% of the time a Master will win - there is no underestimating the luck factor of both "Beginner's Luck" and the "Luck of the Dice".

Furthermore, if neither party has seen the other's figures beforehand and the map is unknown, even a master can select a team that is VERY strong and still lose to "Nilfheim, Stingers x4, MeBurqSa" type squads that are very hard to beat.

[Aldin]

Kroc,

I do not consider myself a Master by any means and yet I would assert that given the intent to win I would defeat a Novice nearly every time we played and indeed, possibly each and every time. I'mnot so sure that a hefty part of that though isn't skill per se so much as it is familiarity. I know Cyprien can't chill touch my Deathreaver, but he can recover life if he successfully attacks the little metal rodent. I also know the Airborne Elite don't need a line of sight for their Grenade attack, roll to drop before OMs are placed and have four attacks of four from height eight hexes away. Those aren't skills, but card knowledge.

Skill enters in when my Novice opponent is well enough versed in the game to know all the terrain effects and all the abilities of the cards both of us are using. Neither of these require any skill, but are essential to eliminate from consideration in truly calculating whether skill or luck is supreme in the game. When my opponent knows Raelin's aura is four hexes and mismanages her placement or OMs then our skill levels are displayed. When my opponent knows Q9 and the Krav's abilities but uses three dice instead of one to attack we can see a skill variance.

Cool concept, but needs one more variable eliminated in my opinion.

~Aldin, teaching novices new card abilities one crushing defeat at a time

[ollie]

I voted 95%. I agree with Aldin's point too, and would still vote 95% with an master against that better novice.

[Dennys]

It's very simple...

A master will beat a novice 100% of the time until the novice gets tired of being black and blue and then decides to master the skill, so he too can go find some new lacky to beat on.















Oh... you meant winning games..

[Agent Minivann]

What makes a master a master is the ability to eliminate or reduce the role luck plays in the game. It is impossible to completely eliminate luck, but it is pretty unlikely that anyone will roll all blanks every time there is a need to roll shield(s) or skull(s). Most of the time if a master is falling to beginner's luck, they are not trying very hard, they are severely handicapped, or they aren't truly a master.

[Jexik]

I kind of jokingly put down 50% because that's roughly my record against those two guys you mentioned. I beat spider_poison the first time I ever played him, which was the day before my first tournament. We were both playing the armies we used the next day. My dice were pretty hot and the map was favorable for my army, but it still happened. He went on to go 6-0 in the actual competition, winning the TTO for the 3rd straight year.

Then I saw the 3-4 games played for the 'novice.' I guess somewhere between 80-90% would make more sense, as those are the records that the best players have in tournaments. But against a true novice, someone who has never played before, and if they're honestly trying? Yeah, up near 95% like Ollie said. But lately when I play new players, I purposely set up the odds in their favor and make moves that are 'bad' but they don't know enough to understand why they are bad. Who wants to lose their first game?

[Kroc]

Originally Posted by Aldin

...I would assert that given the intent to win I would defeat a Novice nearly every time we played ...
Skill enters in when my Novice opponent is well enough versed in the game to know all the terrain effects and all the abilities of the cards both of us are using. ... When my opponent knows Raelin's aura is four hexes and mismanages her placement or OMs then our skill levels are displayed.
...
~Aldin, teaching novices new card abilities one crushing defeat at a time

I definitely get your point, oh great and wise administrator , but I would like to point out that you are asking for more than just knowing the cards.

You want them to also manage the placement of her figs and OMs correctly. I am much less of a master than you, and I am sure you could teach me a thing or two about OM management. In fact you just did about Cyprien's abilities.

So what you think is fair is to compare an "intermediate" player and a master? What value of "intermediate" do you want? You definitely want more than just being familiar with the cards of both players, you want them to be able to use that knowledge properly.

Even knowing the cards is something that many tournament players do not satisfy. Over in the rules section someone asked if the Hive can be teleported. Turns out someone placed in a tournament by teleporting his Hive and then rebirthing Nagrubs (honest mistakes apparently.)

Part of playing HS is making mistakes about the rules. Part of being a master is knowing the rules well enough that you can call your opponent on them. If I include the proviso "knows and understands the rules on both cards" then I am considering a player who is better than me. How much better? I don't know, and neither could anyone answering this poll.