"Z rating" - worth considering on a map?

[dok]

Over on the tournament-worthy asymmetric map workshop thread, we were having a discussion of whether having the start zones too close is an issue. It can cause problems when one side can start atttacking before the other side has a chance to maneuver.

With this in mind, I took a quick look through the figures with the highest "threat range"; that is, range+move. Deadeye Dan can hit with his pea-shooter at a "threat range" of 15 spaces, not that this is a major concern. Mimring, Me-Burq-Sa, and Syvarris can all attack at a range of 14. There's also some exotic combinations like Ulginesh+Emirroon+Jorhdawn, or Ornak+Brunak+medium Utgar hero, which can reach great distances.

But the field really opens up once you put the start zones within 13 hexes of one another. That puts Zetacron and several Vydar figures in range. Obviously the biggest concern, however, is Zelrig, as he can deliver a Majestic Fires attack that can devastate a common squad-heavy army. With this in mind, I came up with a measure that nyys termed "Z Rating", which denotes the number of figures that Zelrig can hit if he wins initiative in turn 1, assuming a start zone filled with single spacers*. The worst case is 7, which would happen if Zelrig can hit a figure surrounded by other figures.

By that measure, by my calculation, the Z rating of the BOV maps are:

Arctic Divide, Ember Canyon Road, Fire Isles: 7

Ruins of Pine Tree Marsh, Flash Fire, Badru Valley, Ticala Sunrise: 5

The other 10 BoV maps: 0

Please double-check if you like, as I'm probably off on at least one of these.

So, is this a reasonable measure of how well-separated the start zones are? Is there still potential concern that the start zones are too close if the Z rating is zero? Can the start zones be considered "well-separated" if the Z rating is 7? (I'm not saying that a Z rating of 7 makes a map bad - I'm just questioning whether we can consider the start zones well separated in that case.)

*obviously Zelrig could hit more figures in some extreme cases, like a bunch of figures surrounding an active hive. The point here is not to play numbers games (not that I'm opposed to that in principle) but to get a sense of start zone separation.

[Grungebob]

Just going to point out that I don't think that a 7 "Z" rating is "bad". Consider that Zelrig was invented to have this very effect. Squadscape becomes more of a gamble since Zelrig appeared. There is no reason to change anything we do. Rating the maps is fine, but I am not personally overconcerned about start zone distances. That said I would consider a 7 to be closer than a zero obviously, but that doesn't mean that a 7 is not well spaced.

[ollie]

Moved from the asymmetric map thread, because it makes more sense here:

Nice. If we were to get especially nerdy---not something that I'd condone, obviously---we could extend this idea further. A second criterion could be how many figures you need to reduce your army by to reduce the Z-number. So if a map has a Z-number of 7 but an army with 23 figures would only be susceptible to a Zelrig blast at 6 figures, the second Z-number would be 1. If you had to get down to 18 before Zelrig couldn't be guaranteed a strike at 7 figures, the second Z-number would be 6. And so on.

With start zone separation it's not actually Zelrig that I worry about. A large fraction of Zelrig's cost is built into his ability to quickly blast apart clumped commons. It's the other units that have reasonably long threat ranges but that "usually" would not be able to strike on the first order marker that I think we need to be wary of---the Krav Maga Agents, Syvarris, DW9K, etc.---and I'm particularly apprehensive of any map that allows melee attackers (apart from frenzying/bezerkering) to get there on the first marker---the Kozuke are the obvious worry.

[dok]

Originally Posted by ollie

With start zone separation it's not actually Zelrig that I worry about. A large fraction of Zelrig's cost is built into his ability to quickly blast apart clumped commons.

I guess; this was Grungebob's argument after all and I presume he speaks from inside knowledge. And looking at the scenarios in the rulebooks (granted, most made before Zelrig came out), many of them have very close start zones.

Still, I think it's worth considering how different the Zelrig effect is on a "7" map versus a "0" map. On a "0" map, a smart player is generally going to try to keep Zelrig alive for a while, and use the mere threat of majestic fires to keep their opponent's figures spread out, particularly if they are common. Even if he fails to "kill his points", Zelrig changes the way your opponent plays just by being on the map. This, to me, seems like what he is meant for.

On a "7" map, though, a player who wins initiative against a commons-based army is almost surely going to use Zelrig as a kamikaze fighter, charging in a taking out a chunk of the opponents' figures, hoping to kill his points immediately.

Moreover, this places an absurd amount of importance in that initial initiative roll, as it decides whether the commons player gets a chance to send some figures out to prevent the "fried in the start zone" effect. To me, this is the single biggest strike against maps with a Z rating of 6 or 7 - they make the initial initiative roll incredibly important in certain matchups. That sort of effect, which drastically increases the role of luck in a game's outcome, should be avoided IMO.

Originally Posted by ollie

It's the other units that have reasonably long threat ranges but that "usually" would not be able to strike on the first order marker that I think we need to be wary of---the Krav Maga Agents, Syvarris, DW9K, etc.

Syvarris is actually the longest hitter of any note - two attacks of 3 at a threat range of 14. KMA, along with the Majors, Skahen, and Zetacron all have a threat range of 13. DW9k is in the very large group of figures that have a threat range of 12. Almost any map with a Z rating of 7 can get hit by any figure in this large group. (I say "almost" because Zelrig flies and those figures don't. On Ember Canyon Road, for instance, the enemy start zone is only in Zelrig range because he can fly over the trees.)

Originally Posted by ollie

I'm particularly apprehensive of any map that allows melee attackers (apart from frenzying/bezerkering) to get there on the first marker---the Kozuke are the obvious worry.

Kozuke, Templar Cavalry, Sujoah, and Cyprien all have a threat range of 9. Vipers, even without frenzy, have a threat range of 10 if Mittens is around. I'm pretty sure every BoV map has enough separation to avoid melee contact.

[ollie]

Originally Posted by dok

On a "7" map, though, a player who wins initiative against a commons-based army is almost surely going to use Zelrig as a kamikaze fighter, charging in a taking out a chunk of the opponents' figures, hoping to kill his points immediately.

Moreover, this places an absurd amount of importance in that initial initiative roll, as it decides whether the commons player gets a chance to send some figures out to prevent the "fried in the start zone" effect. To me, this is the single biggest strike against maps with a Z rating of 6 or 7 - they make the initial initiative roll incredibly important in certain matchups. That sort of effect, which drastically increases the role of luck in a game's outcome, should be avoided IMO.

Someone commented a while ago that people seem either too scared of Zelrig or not scared enough. I guess I'm in the second camp.

This is partly why I suggested the second Z number that tells you how easy it is to avoid Zelrig by having only moderately large armies. If I'm using close to 24 hexes then my average figure price is about 20, and so I probably have figures that are cheaper than that too. By putting the most expendable figures in the Zelrig-attackable spots, even if I lose initiative I always feel that a Zelrig charge is not going to lose the game for me even if it puts me slightly behind.

[Bengi]

Originally Posted by ollie

By putting the most expendable figures in the Zelrig-attackable spots, even if I lose initiative I always feel that a Zelrig charge is not going to lose the game for me even if it puts me slightly behind.

I feel the same way. A lot of things have to happen for a Zelrig disaster to strike.

#1. The army build has to have a lot of common squads
#2. The army build has to have ~24 spaces filled
#3. Deployment of the army must cluster many commons in the Zelrig Susceptible Zone (henceforth known as the Z-Zone )
#4. Map must have a high Z-rating
#5. Zelrig player must win initiative.
#6. Zelrig player must roll 2 or 3 skulls.
#7. Defenders must not have Raelin in the army.
#8. Defenders must whiff or not have enough defense

If I'm playing on a map with a high Z-rating against Zelrig, I'm going to put my heroes in the Z-Zone and scatter commons as best as possible. If I have Raelin, she'll be placed to negate the roll as much as possible.

I think that often times a Zelrig onslaught of the starting zone will not work out very well, but sometimes it will. It's a risk/reward kind of thing. As with all the dragons, I think that there are situations where they can really shine, and I think that's ok. They're dragons after all.

[GameBear]

I briefly explored this topic here. Z Rating is interesting, but I would probably choose other measures. Continuing to use Zelrig as the measuring stick, I would focus on the number of hexes Zelrig can attack directly, and perhaps the total number of hexes Zelrig can attack, directly or indirectly (e.g. on Badru Valley those number would be 4 and 9). These numbers give a better indication of the defender's vulnerability, but still ignore at least one important factor: the attacker's vulnerability. A map that allows Zelrig to attack any starting zone hex, but always from lower ground, may be less of a concern than a map that allows Zelrig to attack half of the starting zone hexes, all from height.

[Elstree]

Judging BOV maps was a lot easier when there was just Mimring to deal with. I was willing to tolerate shots on up to three start zone spaces (though four made me wince). What was more important was the proportion of the opponent's start zone that could be hit like this. Mimring being able to hit four spaces in one location isn't as bad as him being able to hit three space at a time in lots of different places.

Zelrig really changed things. As pointed out, several BOV maps that were approved before Zelrig came out have serious Zelrig problems. There's just no way to anticipate how future figures may affect a particular map. I've since reconsidered my own position on figures like Mimring and Zelrig. As Grungebob points out, part of what these figures are meant to do is provide a deterrent to squads. Because of this I have more tolerance now for closer start zones than I did in the past.