Sports: NFL

[XDVincent]

Originally Posted by happyjosiah

What a boring week we are in for. The AFC is locked up and the NFC only has a game or two that matter.

Philidelphia @ NY Giants
Min @ GB
Dal @ Was
Det @ Chi
St L @ Sea

Five games.

Plus
Mia @ NE
KC @ Den
Hou @ Ind
Bal @ Cin

9/16 games effect the playoffs. Thats a pretty interesting week.

[Ranior]

I think there are quite a few teams that can win the super bowl, although I think in the NFC the 6th seed and the NFC East winner don't stand too much of a chance. I'm not seeing the Vikings or Bears really being able to be super, and I don't see Washington or Dallas winning the NFC title game.

In the AFC, I don't really think either of the wildcards has what it takes to win the super bowl. The Colts are a great story and all, but I'm not actually convinced Luck is a great QB yet. He may very well go on to be one, but he throws a lot, which is why he is breaking records. He has made some nice comebacks, but overall I don't think that team has shown they can beat other good teams with any regularity.


Still should be interesting to see how it goes down. I'm still sitting here wondering if the Packers are better off playing for that 2 seed, but then having that debacle like they did last year, and wondering if the momentum is what matters, or if it was more so they were playing the Giants, a team they don't matchup well with at all (primarily due to a good pass rush)

[IAmBatman]

If any of those teams gets hot going into the playoffs and gets a few breaks with turnovers and big plays, they could run the table. We've seen too many unexpected 6th seeds win it all in recent years to think otherwise.

[Ranior]

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

If any of those teams gets hot going into the playoffs and gets a few breaks with turnovers and big plays, they could run the table. We've seen too many unexpected 6th seeds win it all in recent years to think otherwise.

I suppose.

I guess I still think that the more recent wild cards are more of an abberation in the overall picture, and that those top seeds are the better teams, and more likely to win the super bowl.

I guess I'm not set to believe that the recent events is really a trend and a difference in the game, but more of an outlier in the data, and a much less likely chance of that occuring.

Heck a few pages back we ran the numbers on each game for the Seahawks. If we do that for the teams that have a first round bye compared to the wildcards, we see a much different picture as well. Assuming all the teams have a fifty fifty shot in each game, the top two seeds have as much chance of making the playoffs as the other four seeds.

I tend to think that those top teams have better than fifty percent odds though, and therefore even higher chances of getting in...


Therefore I'm still willing to say that some of those lower seeds have much worse chances of making it in, some of them to the point of basically discounting them. While they surely have some form of a chance, I'm thinking it is pretty dang low, for a variety of reasons.

[IAmBatman]

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the lower seeds have the odds in their favor - I'm just not ready to count anyone out. Any team out there could get hot and win it all, especially if they have a competent QB (so Minny's probably got the weakest chance, followed by Baltimore).

[Dignan]

Originally Posted by Ranior

I suppose.

I guess I still think that the more recent wild cards are more of an abberation in the overall picture, and that those top seeds are the better teams, and more likely to win the super bowl.

I guess I'm not set to believe that the recent events is really a trend and a difference in the game, but more of an outlier in the data, and a much less likely chance of that occuring.

Data time

Since 2000 (13 samples):
- Only twice has a #1 seed failed to make it to the Super Bowl from either side.
- Only three times has a wild card team made the Super Bowl.
- Appearances based on seed:
#1 - 12
#2 - 5
#3 - 2
#4 - 4
#5 - 1
#6 - 2

Just based on that small sample data, it looks like the recent trend of lower seeded teams doing well is more likely just an aberration. I'd bet on the higher seeds.

[dok]

The biggest advantage, by far, in the current format is to get the first round bye. One less chance to lose a game, and you get the benefit of a week to recover from injuries and avoid getting new ones.

[IAmBatman]

The game has evolved so much in recent years though, that it's hard to go with precedent for so many years back. Also, past results aren't necessarily good indicators of future results, especially in a game like football.

[Ranior]

Past results are pretty telling usually in sports. Heck, 70 percent of NFL champions since like 1940 have been in the top 3 in terms of passer rating differential (Offensive passer rating - defensive passer rating).

Stats can tell important things. I'm not here to say that the lower seeds have zero chance, but I guess I'm here to say that their chances are really poor. The sixth seed in the NFC is looking at pretty poor chances due to a variety of factors. (Starting with 6 seeds are rarely good spots to get to the super bowl from)


Finally, I'm not sure how much the game has really evolved. But that's partly because I'm a young guy and have only been able to witness more of the recent times. But even then it seems we celebrate great QB's on offense, and the best defensive players are typically those who are remembered as being a terror on opposing QB's. The game, at least for the past few decades, seems to have been a league won by passing the ball effectively, whether or not the pundits were saying it at the time or not.

[IAmBatman]

The game is muuuch more slanted in favor of passing offenses than it was even five years ago, IMO, with some of the rules about how receivers can be defended and how QBs can be rushed and hit. This leads to a much greater chance of come from behind wins and a much great emphasis on QBs who get hot in the playoffs and go on runs. Teams with consistently quality QBs tend to be the higher seeds and will always have a good chance as a result, but one off game is all it takes (as Peyton showed for years as a disappointing high seed before he broke through with Superbowl success).

[Swamper]

I don't like byes. They kill the momentum, IMO.

[clancampbell]

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

Any team out there could get hot and win it all, especially if they have a competent QB (so Minny's probably got the weakest chance, followed by Baltimore).

So are you saying Flacco is an incompetent QB? There are times where his pocket presence leaves a little to be desired. However, he is a good QB. Is he Peyton or Brady, no but who is?

This is his fifth year in the league. In those years he's never had a losing season, including this one. He's gone to the playoffs in every year, including this one. He's got a winning record in the playoffs 5-4, and has appeared in 2 AFC championship games.

Of the playoff team's QBs (or potential playoff teams) I'll take Flacco over most. Outside of Manning, Brady, Rodgers, I'm taking Flacco.

Could the Ravens be that team that gets hot and runs the table? Maybe. However I'll venture to say that if they don't it will be because of a weak offensive line, and an aging and injured defense. Not the QB.

I'll step off my soapbox now.