Mathscape: The Raelin Effect

[Lightning-X]

Craig VanNess has said she's probably the most powerful figure in the game. Doesn't +2 defense to your opponents entire army (or most of it) seem unbeatable? Do 9D Q9, 6D Nilfheim, and 5D Braxas just seem unreal? Although Craig's statement is probably true, let's do some math to see that in one-on-one confrontations, she's actually quite comparable to one of the other extremely efficient units in the game: the Marro Stingers.

Let's take a look at how Nilfheim performs with and without the esteemed angel.

Duel: Nilfheim backed by Raelin vs the Stingers
- For simplicity's sake, we'll assume that the Stingers get 3 attacks per turn, 2 with 3A and 1 with 4A.
- (I don't know if they really have height at an average ratio of ||2 no height : 1 height|| but i think its pretty accurate)
- Also, Stinger Drain in this case gives you about an average of +.2 wounds per turn, but has a 20% chance to kill a stinger. Since that's a fairly even 1/5 1/5 trade, we'll just assume the player with the Stingers has no stones, and thus never tries his luck on the D20.

So how long does Nilfheim last without Raelin?
Average damage 3A vs 4D = .58
Average damage 4A vs 4D = .92

so per turn, the Stingers do .58*2 + .92 = 2.08 wounds/turn on average

6 life / 2.08 wounds/turn = 3 turns to kill

But what about with his Kyrie supporter?
Average damage 3A vs 6D = .34
Average damage 4A vs 6D = .59

so per turn, the Stingers do .34*2 + .59 = 1.27 wounds/turn on average

6 life / 1.27 wounds/turn = 5 turns to kill

So what's the difference? 2 turns. And if Nilf is firing away at the stingers with his 4A special, he gets an extra 6 attacks in those 2 turns.

These 6 attacks, assuming he attacks the low ground stingers, come in at 4A vs 3D with a 66% chance to kill. In 6 extra attacks, Nilf will kill 4 extra stingers.

And how much do four stingers cost?... 80 Points.
What a familiar number

So is Raelin overpowered? Of course. But she also may be a little overrated. I think most scape players would expect she would drastically effect the outcome of a duel like this, and far outmatch her 80pt value. Now obviously, in your army she's backing a lot more than just 185pt Nilfheim, but it's still interesting to find a reasonable scenario in which she seems just as fairly priced as the other top units, and not a significant level above them. (which was actually my opinion until i did this analysis)

Anyone feel free to correct me on:
- My assumptions
- My math
- My conclusion

Criticism and comments welcome!

[MegaSilver]

Interesting, but may I point you out to the Heroscape Power Rankings?

Raelin is undercosted, but I don't believe she's overrated. There are situations when it's just best to ignore attacking Raelin and take out the figures under her aura though.

[Heroscaper Guy]

The thing is Raelin doesn't take away from order marker efficiency, (In fact she boosts it by helping your figs stay alive longer). She can boost all figures within her radius in two ways, either as a big "shoot me" target letting your figures attack freely, or by boosting your figures defense letting them survive more attacks. I personally believe Raelin is undercosted, and want you to consider this in your math, (not to be condescending to your mathematics). What about when Nilfheim dies and other figures step up into Raelin's aura and attack figures? Would those be adding to her point total similar to what Nilfheim did in your math above? Raelin was still alive as the Stingers weren't focusing on her, so she's still boosting after Nilfheim dies.

[Serenity]

Why not try to factor instances of Nilfheim having height into the calculations? Being able to fly and a ranged attack, she's going to have height advantage on defense a decent amount of the time provided there's a perch for her.

[Lightning-X]

Originally Posted by Heroscaper Guy

I personally believe Raelin is undercosted, and want you to consider this in your math

How? My goal is to compare her actual cost to what she seems to do on the battlefield. In this simplified scenario I found she helped 80 points.

Originally Posted by Heroscaper Guy

What about when Nilfheim dies and other figures step up into Raelin's aura and attack figures? Would those be adding to her point total similar to what Nilfheim did in your math above?

Yeah this is exactly right, and I knew going in someone would probably bring this point up. For example, if Braxas (who is remarkably similar in survivability and attack power odds as Nilf) steps into her aura and starts beating up stingers after Nilf goes down, she too will kill an extra 4 Stingers, meaning Raelin has indirectly killed 8 for 160pts through the Nilf/Braxas combo.

I was still surprised though, to see that +2D on Nilf in this scenario is only worth 80 points. I would have thought it would have been more, but you are very correct in saying Raelin is much more powerful than +2D on one figure.

[Lightning-X]

Originally Posted by Serenity

Why not try to factor instances of Nilfheim having height into the calculations?

Hmm... yeah you're right. It's a bit ridiculous that the stingers always have one on height and Nilf never is.

And from my initial looks at similar scenario's involving Q9, it seems, counter-intuitively, that figures with more starting defense benefit more from Raelin... (in the same scenario Q9 lasts an extra 3 turns instead of 2)

So maybe Raelin buffing a Nilf on height makes her perform even better.

[Lightning-X]

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

Interesting, but may I point you out to the Heroscape Power Rankings?

Yeah I know Raelin is actually not even listed as the top unit, but I think a lot of people see it that way.

Quick question actually, are the most recently updated rankings the PDF or the ones in the actual thread? They're different.

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

Raelin is undercosted, but I don't believe she's overrated.

Gotta disagree. She is definately a very powerful figure, but I think she gets even more of a reputation than she deserves. Maybe not though, she is very versatile, an attribute my simplistic simulation obviously ignored.

[MegaSilver]

Originally Posted by Lightning-X

Yeah I know Raelin is actually not even listed as the top unit, but I think a lot of people see it that way.

Quick question actually, are the most recently updated rankings the PDF or the ones in the actual thread? They're different.

Gotta disagree. She is definately a very powerful figure, but I think she gets even more of a reputation than she deserves. Maybe not though, she is very versatile, an attribute my simplistic simulation obviously ignored.

You're misreading the OP. The units are listed alphabetically. She's third on the list of A+ because R comes after D and M in the alphabet.

The ones ranked in the thread I linked is the most up to date.

Nearly every army benefits having Raelin in their army. (Venoc Vipers move too fast to benefit from her, though.) That's why she is so good. And she only needs a few OMs all game on her to move her to a good spot to give her defense bonus. Thus the rest of the OMs can go to other figures, which is great.

[TheSparkleInYourWater]

Originally Posted by Lightning-X

{snip} In this simplified scenario I found she helped 80 points.

Thanks for sharing this info, I like seeing these types of test. But you've overlooked point C as listed below in determining her worth

A. Nilf killed an extra 80pts. worth of stingers thanks to Raelin.
B. Raelin cost 80 pts., meaning her Def. Aura boost to Nilfhiem was worth exactly her cost.
C. However, you still have a 5 life, 3A 3D fast moving flying figure. In your example above she would have been worth her points if at the start of the battle she was auto-killed and placed on Nilf like a Viking Spirit giving him +2 defense.

[Lightning-X]

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

You're misreading the OP. The units are listed alphabetically. She's third on the list of A+ because R comes after D and M in the alphabet.

The ones ranked in the thread I linked is the most up to date.

Huh. See that's what I thought originally, then I looked at the PDF and saw Major, Raelin, Marros (non alphabetical) and so I figure they must b in order. Also thought I read that somewhere but maybe that was in an older version of the rankings. Thanks for clearing it up!

[Lightning-X]

Originally Posted by TheSparkleInYourWater

C. However, you still have a 5 life, 3A 3D fast moving flying figure. In your example above she would have been worth her points if at the start of the battle she was auto-killed and placed on Nilf like a Viking Spirit giving him +2 defense.

True, although that's probably only a 1 or 2 difference, about 30 points, although I guess that's still pretty substantial.

Even assuming ur OMs were perfect and Raelin was activated the turn after Nilfh died, she'd still only get an average of 2 or 3 attacks in before going down (6 3 on 3s deals 4.5 wounds). Assuming Rae gets a 4 on 3 and 2 3 on 3s that's about 1.6 stingers down with 3 attacks.

[Aldin]

Originally Posted by TheSparkleInYourWater

Thanks for sharing this info, I like seeing these types of test. But you've overlooked point C as listed below in determining her worth

A. Nilf killed an extra 80pts. worth of stingers thanks to Raelin.
B. Raelin cost 80 pts., meaning her Def. Aura boost to Nilfhiem was worth exactly her cost.
C. However, you still have a 5 life, 3A 3D fast moving flying figure. In your example above she would have been worth her points if at the start of the battle she was auto-killed and placed on Nilf like a Viking Spirit giving him +2 defense.

And "D" as well:
D. Nilf is a figure with >1 life which means that he can take more than 1 wound in a single attack. This means she is less efficient in protecting him than she is in protecting squads.

Look at two 3D 5L situations against attacks of 3:

1) A hero with 5 life. 3A v. 3D causes an average of .75 wounds and 3A v. 5D causes an average of .444 wounds. For simplicity, we'll say all wounds count, meaning that it averages 7 attacks to fell the 3D and 12 to fell the 5D. Significant, but we can do better.

2) A squad of 5 members. Now instead of looking at the average number of wounds inflicted, we're ignoring "overkill" (times when an attack causes 2+ wounds) and only looking at the chance of causing at least one wound. 3A v. 3D inflicts a wound 50.9% of the time and 3A v. 5D inflicts a wound 32.1% of the time. So it takes 10 attacks to fell the 3D squaddies and 16 to fell the 5D.

So, Raelin is even better enhancing squads than she is at enhancing heroes. If I recall correctly, 4 defense is a "sweet spot" against an attack of 3, so 2D and 3D squads in particular are the perfect figures to use her with.

~Aldin, going to run the 2D->4D numbers really quick...

3A v. 2D 62.5% hit, 8 attacks to eliminate 5
3A v. 4D 40.7% hit, 13 attacks to eliminate 5