Sports: NFL

[Kinseth]

Originally Posted by Aldin

This.

Not sure what's going on with the Niners and the Rams, but that's an old, old grudge match and has a history of the bad team beating the good one in any given year. Niners seem to have an edge vs. the Seahawks recently. We'll see how it plays out, but I suspect the biggest drama for the Niners is whether they'll be a 2 or 3 seed.

~Aldin, who thinks Smith gives them the best chance at finishing the season well but that Kaepernick gives them the best shot at winning the whole enchilada

It reminds me of Brady taking over for Bledsoe. Not saying Kaepernick is Brady... just has that feeling to it.

[Cyborgs Gaming]

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

Seahawks won't go 4-0 to end the season. They're good, but they're not that good. (Could happen, but I'd be very surprised).

3 of the 4 upcoming games for the Seahawks are home games. The only away game is vs the Bills. The chances of them winning all 4 are very likely. I'd say 50% chance of winning all 4 and 45% chance of winning all 3, only 5% chance of two or less.

The 49ers on the other hand have 2 home and 2 away. I think the 49ers have the two home games in the bag but I can't see them winning either of the away games. One is against the Patriots and the other is in Seattle. I guess they have a chance at winning either of those but remember this is in Seattle. On neutral field I'd say the 49ers have the edge but the 12th pony man has proven to be a very powerful weapon. You know darn well that on Christmas eve on the biggest game of the year for Seahawks fans that it is going to sell out and be louder than normal.

So yeah I guess everything has to go just right for the Seahawks to win the division, but the chances of it going just right are fairly high. I'd have to say that the Seahawks have at least a 35% chance of winning the division. Yes it is more likely to go to the 9ers but it is far from set.

AFC on the other hand, well, they may as well call it an early end to the season, nothing much exciting going on over there. Glad I'm an NFC pony man.

[IAmBatman]

Originally Posted by lafleurhero

3 of the 4 upcoming games for the Seahawks are home games. The only away game is vs the Bills. The chances of them winning all 4 are very likely. I'd say 50% chance of winning all 4 and 45% chance of winning all 3, only 5% chance of two or less.

So 50% is now "very likely"? And here I thought it basically meant you only have half a chance. The casinos must love you.

4 of the 4 upcoming games for the Seahawks are NFL games. NFL games aren't gimmes. Not at home and not on the road (though the Seahawks are notably worse on the road). Any given Sunday, anybody can beat anybody. So I certainly wouldn't just assume 4-0 is going to happen. In fact, I'd say the odds are against it.

Now it's certainly possible. But likely? Not unless you're wearing rose colored glasses.

[Cyborgs Gaming]

May as well put this post to good use.

I guess very likely isn't the proper term but a very good chance is. Anyway I think a 50% chance of winning all 4 upcoming games is a fair assessment given the situation. Granted underdogs win games all the time. I mean the Seahawks should have lost to the Bears, but they didn't. I don't claim that the Seahawks are the best in the NFC or even the NFC west, but they are a great team and are capable of beating the 49ers. That probably is going to be the hardest, and certainly most important, of the upcoming games.

[scorpiusx]

Being a fairly big Patriots fan, I'm not sure how confident I am about us going against the 49ers. I think that we match up well against them, but the Patriots haven't had many good teams to contend with so far this year, and they are pretty crippled.

I'm definitely rooting for my Pats and hoping that they can win every game from here on out, but I don't want to get overly optomistic. The 49ers have a ceiling that is in the stratosphere.

-scorp

[IAmBatman]

Giants and Niners have been odd this year. They both can dominate anyone with their A game, but both have brought their B and C game on many occasions this year.

Same with the Bears and Packers, actually, but I think injuries might have more to do with their inconsistency.

[Dignan]

Originally Posted by lafleurhero

3 of the 4 upcoming games for the Seahawks are home games. The only away game is vs the Bills. The chances of them winning all 4 are very likely. I'd say 50% chance of winning all 4 and 45% chance of winning all 3, only 5% chance of two or less.

Hmmm... really? I think that number is a little high. It's certainly possible that Seattle could win out, but I wouldn't put the number at 50%. The math alone seems unlikely to pan out in that direction. Look at the upcoming schedule:

vs. Cardinals - 75% chance of winning. That's being pretty generous. Any team in the NFL can beat any time on a given Sunday. I'd bet that Seattle wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals found a way to win.

at Buffalo - 60% chance of winning. Buffalo has been getting better this year. They had some real ugly loses to start the season, but have come around a little. They'll put up a fight. Plus, Seattle is pretty bad on the road. I probably shouldn't favor them at all.

vs. San Francisco - 50% chance of winning. I think San Fran is the better team, but Seattle plays great at home. It should be a real close game.

vs. St. Louis - 55% chance of winning. They already beat Seattle earlier in the year and they've won the season against the 49ers. They've been real up and down this year. This should be another close one, but I'll give the edge to Seattle due to the home field advantage.

I think those odds are pretty fair. Most NFL games are nearly 50/50 affairs as it is. If you think those odds are reasonable (or just in the ball park) then Seattle only has a 12% chance of winning all 4 games. That's still a decent shot, but I don't know if I'd call it "likely". I definitely wouldn't say they have a 50% chance of going 4-0.

P.S. For them to have a 50% chance of winning the next 4, you would have to believe that they have an average chance of winning each game of 85%. I don't think that's the case.

[nyys]

Predicting any team to go 4-0 down the stretch is pretty iffy at best IMO. One could argue the Pats can go 4-0 to finish the season, but as Bats said, any given Sunday (and that includes the Dolphins coming to play in cold weather).

Over any four game stretch I think the best one can reasonably hope for is 3-1 with 2-2 being the worst case scenario.

[Tornado]

Anyone see that Barry Sanders special on the NFL network?
Freakin' sick. That guy was amazing. The OSU footage was incredible. That poor guy. Stupid Lions never did anything to help him out. Terrible line, single back offense.
What they did not show was incredible runs for no gain when he should have been tackled for a 3 yard loss. What a waste of greatness.

[IAmBatman]

That they never gave him a legitimate franchise QB to go with him was the biggest crime. The one season Scott Mitchell was a good passer, that offense set the world on fire. Imagine if they had a Pro Bowl QB with Barry for any significant stretch of his career.

[ZBeeblebrox]

Originally Posted by Tornado

Anyone see that Barry Sanders special on the NFL network?
Freakin' sick. That guy was amazing. The OSU footage was incredible. That poor guy. Stupid Lions never did anything to help him out. Terrible line, single back offense.
What they did not show was incredible runs for no gain when he should have been tackled for a 3 yard loss. What a waste of greatness.

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

That they never gave him a legitimate franchise QB to go with him was the biggest crime. The one season Scott Mitchell was a good passer, that offense set the world on fire. Imagine if they had a Pro Bowl QB with Barry for any significant stretch of his career.

x50

[Cyborgs Gaming]

Dignans quotes in red

Well I'm not the best with stats so I guess 50% is a bit high, but I still think it is better than 12%. The Seahawks have the edge on each game I think. I'll post what I think on each game after yours.

vs. Cardinals - 75% chance of winning.
Seems about right but I'd go 80% . Close enough to an agreement for me

at Buffalo - 60% chance of winning.
I agree with this

vs. San Francisco - 50% chance of winning.
This one I don't agree with. I'd say 65% chance of Seahawk victory. Early in the year no doubt the 49ers were the better team. Seahawks have gotten better, 49ers not so much and the 12th man factor will be even bigger.

vs. St. Louis - 55% chance of winning.
Once again I have to say 65% chance. The Seahawks are the better team and the Rams have exhausted their luck.


Well that brings the average game to about 2 in 3 chance, same amount as not rolling shields on a d6. This is like rolling 4 dice for defence, chances are a shield will come up. After looking things over I will say that you are right, I was overestimating the Seahawks chances because everything has to come out just right. My revised odds of Seahawks going 4-0 for the rest of the season are now 35%. Still a pretty fair shot. I guess then I'd also say that the chances of them winning the west are 30%. I'll base that on that if the 49ers win 3 games it doesn't matter what the Seahawks do, while at the same time if the 49ers only win 1 game then the Seahawks only need to win 3