12 Leaving Engagement Attacks? - Page 4

dok · #37 January 14th, 2009, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killercactus

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

Nilfheim, Su-Bak-Na, or Braxas (i.e. a 2-hex figure with a height of at least 12) is standing on a 4 high pedestal, surrounded by Knights of Weston. Around the edge of those hexes are ladders, and there are two more "stories" of knights, at heights of 6 and 11.

So the dragon/hivelord is adjacent to 24 knights. Flying away, the dragon takes 48 dice of leaving engagement attacks.

I seemed to have missed my own point, since using Nilf/SBN/Braxas lets you have FOUR tiers of knights, not just 3. So that's 32 knights, doubled to 64 dice.

If we "uncap" the end and have them walk away in stead of fly away, then there's "only" 28 adjacent initially. The first three moves only cause disengagement from those 28, but each additional move disengages another 8. If we give Braxas/SBN/Nilf Eldgrim's spirit, and put them on a road, and give them the glyph of Valda, they can move 9 additional spaces, for 72 additional knights. That makes a grand total of 100 disengagements, for 200 total dice.

Could you still get 4 tiers of Knights with Jotun? Then you could give him Valda, a Road, Eldgrim's Spirit AND Ullar's Amulet......

Nope. You need at least a height of 12, hence only those three. You have the figure standing on a pedestal 4 spaces high, so it looks like this (forgive the ascii diagram):

20: K4
19: K4
18: K4
17: K4
16: K4 Nilfheim
15: K3 Nilfheim
14: K3 Nilfheim
13: K3 Nilfheim
12: K3 Nilfheim
11: K3 Nilfheim
10: K2 Nilfheim
09: K2 Nilfheim
08: K2 Nilfheim
07: K2 Nilfheim
06: K2 Nilfheim
05: K1 Nilfheim
04: K1
03: K1
02: K1
01: K1

Elf_Archer · #38 January 16th, 2009, 12:54 AM

It is 1 over 2 to the 200th power so..........

2.695994666715063979466701508702e+67.

Is that scietntific notation? If it isn't, I can't understand what it is. Is it saying 2.695994666715063979466701508702*10 to the 67th? I just put what my calculator came up with.

My arm is still sore, 200 clicks...

If someone could help me interpret the calculator, my thanks go to them.

Xn F M · #39 January 16th, 2009, 11:43 AM

Elf Archer, I think you may have made an error entering information into your calculator somwhere. I'm assuming you're calculating the chances that Braxy will survive, but what you've got there is a very large number.

Try doing the calculation again. If you don't have a calculator where you can easily enter .5^200, try using the calculator on your computer. It'll save alot of wear and tear on your arm.

dok · #40 January 16th, 2009, 01:57 PM

It's not the right answer anyway; that would be the probability of Braxas receiving zero wounds. Since Braxas has 8 wounds, that drastically underestimates her chances of survival.

The number of wounds follows a binomial distribution. Since the number of trials here is large, we can safely apply the law of large numbers and say that wounds are a normal distribution with mean 100 and variance 50. The standard deviation is therefore roughly 7.07. This means that 8 lies roughly (cough) 13 sigma out from the mean. Unfortunately, even so-called "far right tail probability" tables don't go past 9.5 sigma. So, it's brute force time.

The sum of 200C7 through 200C1 is 2.369 E 12. That gives us the number of possible permutation of wounds and no-wounds that is totals less than 8 total wounds.
The probability of any given outcome is .5^200, or 6.22 E -61.

Multiply the two together, and the probability of survuval is 1.47 E -48.

In layman's terms, that's one in about .67 million million million million million million million million.

Revdyer · #41 January 16th, 2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

In layman's terms, that's one in about .67 million million million million million million million million.

In "real layman's terms" isn't that just about "bupkus"?

Ranior · #42 January 16th, 2009, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elf_Archer

It is 1 over 2 to the 200th power so..........

2.695994666715063979466701508702e+67.

Is that scietntific notation? If it isn't, I can't understand what it is. Is it saying 2.695994666715063979466701508702*10 to the 67th? I just put what my calculator came up with.

My arm is still sore, 200 clicks...

If someone could help me interpret the calculator, my thanks go to them.

Yep, you got it perfectly right. When a calculator has E that means take the number before it and multiply if by 10 to the number after it.
And as for what Revdyer said, you're exactly right. Braxas, or any other figure, could not survive that.

fomox · #43 January 16th, 2009, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

The sum of 200C7 through 200C1 is 2.369 E 12. That gives us the number of possible permutation of wounds and no-wounds that is totals less than 8 total wounds.
The probability of any given outcome is .5^200, or 6.22 E -61.

Multiply the two together, and the probability of survuval is 1.47 E -48.

In layman's terms, that's one in about .67 million million million million million million million million.

Correct. And mentioned 2 pages ago by a very handsome (and humble) poster.

(Nice to have corroboration, though!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by fomox

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

. . . . for 200 total dice.

The chance of a full-health Braxas surviving this ridiculous scenario: 1.47417E-48

(Or about 1 in .678 quinquadecillion.

)

And yes, "Bupkus" is probably the best way to put it.

(I'm waiting for someone to take this even farther and post a picture of this...I'm not sure the figures will even fit...)

Granite-M · #44 January 16th, 2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ranior

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elf_Archer

It is 1 over 2 to the 200th power so..........

2.695994666715063979466701508702e+67.

Is that scietntific notation? If it isn't, I can't understand what it is. Is it saying 2.695994666715063979466701508702*10 to the 67th? I just put what my calculator came up with.

My arm is still sore, 200 clicks...

If someone could help me interpret the calculator, my thanks go to them.

Yep, you got it perfectly right. When a calculator has E that means take the number before it and multiply if by 10 to the number after it.
And as for what Revdyer said, you're exactly right. Braxas, or any other figure, could not survive that.

Be careful about your vocabulary! "Could not" is not the same as "amost certainly would not."

There is a chance, no matter how infitesimally small, that it could happen.

dok · #45 January 16th, 2009, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fomox

(I'm waiting for someone to take this even farther and post a picture of this...I'm not sure the figures will even fit...)

Does anybody out there even have 25 packs of knights?

Simpsons Scaper · #46 January 16th, 2009, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dok

Quote:

Originally Posted by fomox

(I'm waiting for someone to take this even farther and post a picture of this...I'm not sure the figures will even fit...)

Does anybody out there even have 25 packs of knights?

No. I don't think anybody has that many knights.

Creationist · #47 January 16th, 2009, 05:36 PM

What about Dr. Weirdscaper?

Simpsons Scaper · #48 January 16th, 2009, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Creationist

What about Dr. Weirdscaper?

I don't think even he has that many (and that's saying something).

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