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Old February 13th, 2008, 01:08 PM
Sisyphus's Avatar
Sisyphus Sisyphus is offline
 
Join Date: June 15, 2007
Location: FL - Naples
Posts: 528
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Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Here are some handy probability tables for those that are interested. Each table goes from 1 to 10 attack left to right and 0 to 10 defense top to bottom unless otherwise indicated.

Use this information with caution since "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Standard Figures


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.333   0.750   1.208   1.688   2.177   2.672   3.169   3.668   4.167   4.667
2       0.222   0.556   0.958   1.403   1.872   2.354   2.845   3.339   3.837   4.335
3       0.148   0.407   0.750   1.150   1.589   2.052   2.530   3.017   3.510   4.005
4       0.099   0.296   0.580   0.932   1.334   1.770   2.230   2.705   3.189   3.680
5       0.066   0.214   0.444   0.747   1.107   1.511   1.947   2.405   2.878   3.361
6       0.044   0.154   0.337   0.593   0.910   1.278   1.685   2.121   2.579   3.050
7       0.029   0.110   0.254   0.466   0.741   1.071   1.446   1.856   2.294   2.750
8       0.020   0.078   0.190   0.363   0.598   0.889   1.230   1.612   2.026   2.464
9       0.013   0.055   0.141   0.281   0.479   0.733   1.038   1.389   1.776   2.193
10      0.009   0.039   0.105   0.216   0.380   0.599   0.869   1.187   1.546   1.939

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.333   0.583   0.750   0.854   0.917   0.953   0.974   0.986   0.992   0.996
2       0.222   0.444   0.625   0.757   0.847   0.906   0.944   0.967   0.980   0.989
3       0.148   0.333   0.509   0.655   0.766   0.846   0.901   0.938   0.961   0.976
4       0.099   0.247   0.407   0.556   0.679   0.776   0.848   0.899   0.934   0.958
5       0.066   0.181   0.321   0.463   0.592   0.700   0.786   0.851   0.898   0.932
6       0.044   0.132   0.250   0.380   0.507   0.622   0.718   0.795   0.855   0.899
7       0.029   0.095   0.192   0.308   0.429   0.544   0.647   0.734   0.804   0.859
8       0.020   0.068   0.146   0.246   0.358   0.470   0.576   0.670   0.749   0.813
9       0.013   0.049   0.111   0.195   0.295   0.401   0.506   0.603   0.689   0.762
10      0.009   0.035   0.083   0.153   0.241   0.339   0.440   0.538   0.628   0.707



Counter Strike(Samurai, Charos)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average damage inflicted on the attacker due to an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits).  

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.389   0.222   0.125   0.069   0.038   0.021   0.011   0.006   0.003   0.002
3       0.648   0.407   0.250   0.150   0.089   0.052   0.030   0.017   0.010   0.005
4       0.932   0.630   0.414   0.265   0.167   0.103   0.063   0.038   0.023   0.013
5       1.233   0.881   0.611   0.414   0.274   0.178   0.114   0.072   0.045   0.027
6       1.544   1.154   0.837   0.593   0.410   0.278   0.185   0.121   0.079   0.050
7       1.863   1.443   1.088   0.799   0.574   0.404   0.279   0.190   0.127   0.084
8       2.186   1.745   1.357   1.030   0.765   0.556   0.397   0.278   0.192   0.131
9       2.513   2.055   1.641   1.281   0.979   0.733   0.538   0.389   0.276   0.193
10      2.842   2.372   1.938   1.550   1.214   0.932   0.703   0.521   0.380   0.273

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack inflicting at least one wound on the attacker when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.333   0.194   0.111   0.063   0.035   0.019   0.010   0.006   0.003   0.002
3       0.481   0.315   0.199   0.123   0.074   0.044   0.026   0.015   0.009   0.005
4       0.605   0.432   0.296   0.197   0.127   0.081   0.050   0.031   0.019   0.011
5       0.704   0.539   0.395   0.279   0.192   0.128   0.084   0.054   0.034   0.021
6       0.781   0.632   0.490   0.365   0.264   0.186   0.128   0.086   0.057   0.037
7       0.839   0.711   0.577   0.450   0.340   0.250   0.179   0.125   0.086   0.058
8       0.883   0.776   0.654   0.531   0.417   0.318   0.237   0.172   0.123   0.086
9       0.915   0.828   0.720   0.605   0.492   0.389   0.299   0.225   0.166   0.120
10      0.939   0.869   0.777   0.672   0.563   0.459   0.364   0.282   0.214   0.159



Unleashed Fury(Anubian Wolves)


Average Damage:

Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)

This table shows the average damage an Anubian Wolf will cause in an attack before Unleashed Fury is rolled.

                d+      d++     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       1.775   1.975   2.150   2.275   2.475   2.650
1       1.488   1.679   1.850   1.965   2.160   2.333
2       1.236   1.417   1.581   1.680   1.869   2.038
3       1.020   1.188   1.343   1.424   1.604   1.767
4       0.837   0.991   1.136   1.198   1.367   1.522
5       0.683   0.823   0.956   1.000   1.158   1.303
6       0.554   0.681   0.802   0.830   0.975   1.111
7       0.448   0.562   0.671   0.685   0.817   0.942
8       0.362   0.462   0.559   0.563   0.682   0.796
9       0.291   0.379   0.465   0.460   0.567   0.670
10      0.233   0.310   0.385   0.375   0.470   0.562

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)

This table shows the probability that an attack from an Anubian wolf will cause at least one wound before Unleashed Fury is rolled.  For defending squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

                d+      d++     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       0.862   0.887   0.900   0.931   0.944   0.950
1       0.754   0.787   0.807   0.854   0.875   0.887
2       0.648   0.686   0.713   0.768   0.795   0.813
3       0.550   0.591   0.622   0.679   0.711   0.735
4       0.462   0.504   0.538   0.592   0.628   0.655
5       0.385   0.426   0.462   0.510   0.548   0.578
6       0.318   0.358   0.394   0.435   0.473   0.506
7       0.261   0.300   0.335   0.367   0.405   0.439
8       0.213   0.249   0.283   0.308   0.345   0.378
9       0.173   0.207   0.239   0.256   0.292   0.324
10      0.140   0.171   0.201   0.212   0.246   0.277



Stinger Drain(Marro Stingers)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)

This table shows the average damage a Marro Stinger causes in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled.

        N               d+      d++     Na+     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       1.500   1.475   1.575   1.675   2.000   1.875   2.000   2.125
1       1.208   1.230   1.315   1.399   1.688   1.619   1.728   1.837
2       0.958   1.011   1.081   1.151   1.403   1.380   1.474   1.567
3       0.750   0.820   0.878   0.935   1.150   1.162   1.241   1.321
4       0.580   0.658   0.704   0.751   0.932   0.967   1.033   1.100
5       0.444   0.522   0.559   0.597   0.747   0.796   0.851   0.906
6       0.337   0.410   0.440   0.470   0.593   0.649   0.694   0.740
7       0.254   0.320   0.343   0.366   0.466   0.524   0.561   0.598
8       0.190   0.247   0.266   0.284   0.363   0.420   0.450   0.479
9       0.141   0.190   0.204   0.218   0.281   0.334   0.358   0.381
10      0.105   0.145   0.156   0.167   0.216   0.263   0.282   0.301

Wound Chance:
Code:
Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)

This table shows the probability of a Marro Stinger causing at least one wound in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        N               d+      d++     Na+     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       0.875   0.734   0.781   0.828   0.938   0.767   0.816   0.864
1       0.750   0.657   0.700   0.743   0.854   0.718   0.764   0.809
2       0.625   0.573   0.610   0.648   0.757   0.655   0.698   0.740
3       0.509   0.488   0.520   0.553   0.655   0.585   0.623   0.662
4       0.407   0.407   0.435   0.463   0.556   0.513   0.547   0.580
5       0.321   0.335   0.358   0.381   0.463   0.441   0.471   0.500
6       0.250   0.271   0.290   0.309   0.380   0.374   0.399   0.425
7       0.192   0.217   0.233   0.248   0.308   0.313   0.334   0.356
8       0.146   0.172   0.184   0.197   0.246   0.258   0.276   0.294
9       0.111   0.135   0.145   0.154   0.195   0.211   0.226   0.241
10      0.083   0.105   0.113   0.120   0.153   0.171   0.183   0.195



Double Strike(Minions of Utgar, Omnicron Snipers)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       1.000   2.000   3.000   4.000   5.000   6.000   7.000   8.000   9.000   10.000
1       0.833   1.750   2.708   3.688   4.677   5.672   6.669   7.668   8.667   9.667
2       0.667   1.500   2.417   3.375   4.354   5.344   6.339   7.336   8.335   9.334
3       0.519   1.269   2.139   3.072   4.037   5.019   6.010   7.005   8.003   9.001
4       0.395   1.062   1.880   2.781   3.728   4.699   5.684   6.676   7.671   8.669
5       0.296   0.881   1.640   2.504   3.427   4.385   5.361   6.348   7.341   8.338
6       0.219   0.724   1.422   2.242   3.137   4.077   5.043   6.024   7.013   8.007
7       0.161   0.591   1.224   1.996   2.859   3.777   4.729   5.702   6.687   7.678
8       0.117   0.478   1.046   1.767   2.593   3.486   4.422   5.385   6.363   7.350
9       0.085   0.384   0.888   1.556   2.341   3.205   4.122   5.072   6.042   7.024
10      0.061   0.306   0.749   1.362   2.103   2.936   3.830   4.765   5.725   6.701
Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits) causing at least one wound.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
2       0.444   0.694   0.833   0.910   0.951   0.974   0.986   0.993   0.996   0.998
3       0.370   0.620   0.778   0.873   0.928   0.960   0.978   0.988   0.993   0.996
4       0.296   0.543   0.718   0.831   0.901   0.943   0.968   0.982   0.990   0.995
5       0.230   0.469   0.656   0.786   0.870   0.923   0.955   0.974   0.985   0.992
6       0.176   0.401   0.594   0.737   0.836   0.900   0.940   0.965   0.979   0.988
7       0.132   0.338   0.533   0.687   0.797   0.873   0.922   0.953   0.972   0.983
8       0.098   0.283   0.474   0.634   0.756   0.842   0.900   0.938   0.962   0.977
9       0.072   0.234   0.417   0.581   0.712   0.809   0.876   0.922   0.951   0.970
10      0.052   0.192   0.364   0.529   0.667   0.772   0.849   0.902   0.938   0.961



One Shield Defense(Crixus)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack defended by a figure with one shield defense(i.e. Crixus, if the defending figure rolls at least one shield, the most damage it can recieve is one wound).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.333   0.750   1.167   1.563   1.938   2.297   2.646   2.988   3.327   3.663
2       0.222   0.556   0.903   1.229   1.528   1.802   2.058   2.302   2.537   2.767
3       0.148   0.407   0.694   0.970   1.220   1.443   1.644   1.828   1.999   2.162
4       0.099   0.296   0.531   0.765   0.982   1.174   1.343   1.492   1.626   1.748
5       0.066   0.214   0.403   0.603   0.793   0.965   1.116   1.246   1.359   1.459
6       0.044   0.154   0.305   0.473   0.642   0.799   0.938   1.059   1.162   1.250
7       0.029   0.110   0.229   0.370   0.518   0.662   0.794   0.910   1.009   1.093
8       0.020   0.078   0.171   0.288   0.417   0.549   0.674   0.787   0.885   0.969
9       0.013   0.055   0.127   0.223   0.335   0.454   0.571   0.682   0.780   0.866
10      0.009   0.039   0.094   0.172   0.267   0.374   0.483   0.590   0.689   0.776



Gift of the Empress Aura(Einar Imperium/Empress Kiova)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure rerolls all defense die that do not show shields(i.e. Einar Imperium in range of Empress Kiova's aura).   

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.222   0.472   0.667   0.799   0.882   0.932   0.962   0.979   0.988   0.994
2       0.099   0.272   0.458   0.621   0.747   0.837   0.898   0.937   0.962   0.978
3       0.044   0.148   0.293   0.448   0.590   0.709   0.800   0.866   0.913   0.944
4       0.020   0.078   0.177   0.304   0.439   0.567   0.679   0.769   0.838   0.890
5       0.009   0.040   0.103   0.197   0.310   0.432   0.549   0.654   0.742   0.813
6       0.004   0.020   0.058   0.122   0.210   0.314   0.425   0.534   0.633   0.719
7       0.002   0.010   0.032   0.074   0.137   0.220   0.316   0.419   0.520   0.615
8       0.001   0.005   0.017   0.043   0.087   0.149   0.227   0.317   0.413   0.509
9       0.000   0.002   0.009   0.025   0.053   0.097   0.158   0.233   0.318   0.408
10      0.000   0.001   0.005   0.014   0.032   0.062   0.107   0.165   0.237   0.317



Shields of Valor(Sentinels of Jandar)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound in which the defending figure recieves two blocks for every shield rolled(i.e. Seninels of Jandar).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.333   0.500   0.625   0.729   0.813   0.875   0.919   0.949   0.969   0.981
2       0.222   0.333   0.444   0.556   0.656   0.741   0.810   0.863   0.904   0.933
3       0.148   0.222   0.315   0.417   0.516   0.608   0.688   0.757   0.815   0.861
4       0.099   0.148   0.222   0.309   0.398   0.486   0.569   0.646   0.714   0.773
5       0.066   0.099   0.156   0.226   0.302   0.382   0.461   0.538   0.611   0.677
6       0.044   0.066   0.110   0.165   0.227   0.295   0.367   0.440   0.512   0.580
7       0.029   0.044   0.077   0.119   0.169   0.226   0.288   0.354   0.422   0.489
8       0.020   0.029   0.054   0.085   0.124   0.171   0.223   0.281   0.342   0.405
9       0.013   0.020   0.037   0.061   0.091   0.128   0.172   0.221   0.274   0.332
10      0.009   0.013   0.026   0.043   0.066   0.095   0.131   0.171   0.218   0.268



Heroic Defense Aura(Hatamoto Taro with Samurai/Ashigaru)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack when the defending figure recieves Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar symbols count as shields).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.250   0.625   1.063   1.531   2.016   2.508   3.004   3.502   4.001   4.500
2       0.125   0.375   0.719   1.125   1.570   2.039   2.521   3.012   3.506   4.003
3       0.063   0.219   0.469   0.797   1.184   1.611   2.066   2.539   3.023   3.513
4       0.031   0.125   0.297   0.547   0.865   1.238   1.652   2.096   2.559   3.036
5       0.016   0.070   0.184   0.365   0.615   0.927   1.290   1.693   2.126   2.581
6       0.008   0.039   0.111   0.238   0.427   0.677   0.983   1.338   1.732   2.156
7       0.004   0.021   0.066   0.152   0.290   0.483   0.733   1.036   1.384   1.770
8       0.002   0.012   0.039   0.096   0.193   0.338   0.536   0.786   1.085   1.427
9       0.001   0.006   0.023   0.059   0.126   0.232   0.384   0.585   0.835   1.131
10      0.000   0.003   0.013   0.036   0.081   0.156   0.270   0.427   0.631   0.881
Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar Symbols count as shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.250   0.500   0.688   0.813   0.891   0.938   0.965   0.980   0.989   0.994
2       0.125   0.313   0.500   0.656   0.773   0.855   0.910   0.945   0.967   0.981
3       0.063   0.188   0.344   0.500   0.637   0.746   0.828   0.887   0.927   0.954
4       0.031   0.109   0.227   0.363   0.500   0.623   0.726   0.806   0.867   0.910
5       0.016   0.063   0.145   0.254   0.377   0.500   0.613   0.709   0.788   0.849
6       0.008   0.035   0.090   0.172   0.274   0.387   0.500   0.605   0.696   0.773
7       0.004   0.020   0.055   0.113   0.194   0.291   0.395   0.500   0.598   0.685
8       0.002   0.011   0.033   0.073   0.133   0.212   0.304   0.402   0.500   0.593
9       0.001   0.006   0.019   0.046   0.090   0.151   0.227   0.315   0.407   0.500
10      0.000   0.003   0.011   0.029   0.059   0.105   0.166   0.240   0.324   0.412

Tough(Gorillinators)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Tough(when defending figure receives one automatic shield).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
1       0.000   0.167   0.375   0.563   0.708   0.813   0.883   0.928   0.957   0.975
2       0.000   0.111   0.278   0.451   0.604   0.726   0.816   0.880   0.923   0.952
3       0.000   0.074   0.204   0.356   0.506   0.636   0.741   0.821   0.879   0.920
4       0.000   0.049   0.148   0.278   0.417   0.548   0.662   0.755   0.827   0.880

Poison Sting(Sujoah)


Code:
This table shows the average damage caused by Sojoah's Poison Sting Special Attack and the probability that Sojoah's Poison Sting kills a figure by rolling a 20.

        Average Damage Kill Chance
0       2.93750        0.09375
1       2.54167        0.08542
2       2.15972        0.07569
3       1.80556        0.06551
4       1.48765        0.05556
5       1.20988        0.04630
6       0.97257        0.03800
7       0.77366        0.03077
8       0.60966        0.02463
9       0.47635        0.01951
10      0.36932        0.01531


Counter Strike vs. Double Strike


Wound Chance:
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying 

the attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.278   0.139   0.069   0.035   0.017   0.009   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001
3       0.370   0.194   0.102   0.053   0.028   0.014   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001
4       0.457   0.256   0.142   0.078   0.042   0.023   0.012   0.007   0.004   0.002
5       0.539   0.323   0.189   0.108   0.061   0.034   0.019   0.010   0.006   0.003
6       0.616   0.392   0.241   0.144   0.084   0.048   0.028   0.016   0.009   0.005
7       0.685   0.461   0.296   0.183   0.111   0.066   0.038   0.022   0.013   0.007
8       0.746   0.528   0.353   0.227   0.141   0.086   0.052   0.031   0.018   0.010
9       0.798   0.591   0.411   0.273   0.176   0.110   0.068   0.041   0.024   0.014
10      0.842   0.649   0.468   0.321   0.213   0.137   0.086   0.053   0.033   0.020

Wound Chance(with Heroic Defense Aura):
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as 

shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the 

attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.250   0.125   0.063   0.031   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.000
2       0.375   0.188   0.094   0.047   0.023   0.012   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.500   0.281   0.156   0.086   0.047   0.025   0.014   0.007   0.004   0.002
4       0.625   0.391   0.234   0.137   0.078   0.044   0.024   0.013   0.007   0.004
5       0.734   0.500   0.320   0.197   0.118   0.069   0.040   0.023   0.013   0.007
6       0.820   0.602   0.410   0.267   0.167   0.103   0.062   0.036   0.021   0.012
7       0.883   0.691   0.500   0.342   0.225   0.144   0.089   0.055   0.033   0.019
8       0.926   0.768   0.586   0.421   0.289   0.192   0.124   0.078   0.048   0.029
9       0.954   0.830   0.665   0.500   0.358   0.247   0.165   0.107   0.068   0.043
10      0.972   0.878   0.734   0.576   0.429   0.306   0.212   0.142   0.093   0.060
Average Damage:
Code:
This table shows the average damage caused to the attacker with double strike(when each skull rolled counts 

as two hits) on an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable 

hits).  

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.333   0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.519   0.269   0.139   0.072   0.037   0.019   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001
4       0.728   0.395   0.213   0.114   0.061   0.032   0.017   0.009   0.005   0.003
5       0.963   0.547   0.307   0.171   0.094   0.051   0.028   0.015   0.008   0.004
6       1.219   0.724   0.422   0.242   0.137   0.077   0.043   0.024   0.013   0.007
7       1.494   0.924   0.557   0.329   0.192   0.110   0.063   0.035   0.020   0.011
8       1.784   1.145   0.713   0.434   0.259   0.153   0.089   0.051   0.029   0.017
9       2.085   1.384   0.888   0.556   0.341   0.205   0.122   0.072   0.042   0.024
10      2.394   1.639   1.083   0.695   0.437   0.269   0.163   0.098   0.058   0.034
Average Damage(with Heroic Defense Aura):
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as 

shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the 

attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.250   0.125   0.063   0.031   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.000
2       0.375   0.188   0.094   0.047   0.023   0.012   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.500   0.281   0.156   0.086   0.047   0.025   0.014   0.007   0.004   0.002
4       0.625   0.391   0.234   0.137   0.078   0.044   0.024   0.013   0.007   0.004
5       0.734   0.500   0.320   0.197   0.118   0.069   0.040   0.023   0.013   0.007
6       0.820   0.602   0.410   0.267   0.167   0.103   0.062   0.036   0.021   0.012
7       0.883   0.691   0.500   0.342   0.225   0.144   0.089   0.055   0.033   0.019
8       0.926   0.768   0.586   0.421   0.289   0.192   0.124   0.078   0.048   0.029
9       0.954   0.830   0.665   0.500   0.358   0.247   0.165   0.107   0.068   0.043
10      0.972   0.878   0.734   0.576   0.429   0.306   0.212   0.142   0.093   0.060
I have been getting a lot of requests on how these tables were produced so here are some helpful equations. P(w) gives the probability that an attack of A dice will inflict a wound against a figure with D defense(i.e. kill a squad member). The specialized tables in this thread come from this formula with only slight modifications. E(w) gives the expected number of wounds an attack with A dice will inflict on a figure with D defense(i.e. average damage to a hero if the hero has at least A life). The third equation is the definition of a combination which is used in the first two formulas. "n choose m" is the number of ways you can choose n items in a set of m elements. For example if I roll three attack dice, I can get two skulls in three different ways. The skulls can be on the first and second dice, the first and third dice, or the second and third dice.


Last edited by Sisyphus; March 10th, 2009 at 10:12 AM.
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