Situational Strategy: Gut Check

[C$$]

So, you're Heroscape instincts are pretty good huh? Would you say... sharper than a razor? Keener than a hawk's eye? More refined than granulated table sugar, even? Well, why don't we put them to the test?

*Disclaimers:
1. Consider these quizzes like you're sitting at a tournament table: you don't have time to run the calculations. Take a moment, consider the scenario, then listen to your gut.

2. Obviously there are lots of strategic concerns (map positioning, order marker placement, etc etc). For simplicity, ignore all considerations but what's given in the scenario.

So... without further ado:

SCENARIO 1:

You have a Cather Spearman against a Krav Magna Agent. You can either:

1. Move adjacent to the Krav and attack, negating his stealth dodge, but giving him height and losing your extra attack die from impale (2 attack on 4 defense).

-OR-

2. Stay one space away from the Krav and attack at level height. This gives your spearman an extra attack die with impale and one less defense die for the Krav, but it brings stealth dodge into play (3 attack on 3 defense with stealth dodge).

Which choice has a higher chance of killing that pesky Krav?

The answer is....

Spoiler Alert!

It's really close, but option 2 is slightly better:

1) Wound chance of 2 attack on 4 defense from the probability table: 0.247

2) I didn't find a table for this one, but it's not too tough of a calculation:
(probability of at least 1 skull) * (probability of 0 shields)
(1 - probability of NO skulls) * (probability of 0 shields)
(1 - (1/2)^3) * (2/3)^3 = 0.259

Basically a wash, but sometimes even that 1% matters

Stay tuned for another question next week... or when I feel like it.

[Sir Yeshua]

Move in and attack melee.

[kevindola]

I appreciate the assumptions and external variables we are supposed to ignore, but the relevant figures' other inherent stats lead me to conclude that I would take the 2v4 engaged options with reduced emphasis on the actual probability kill values.

On any given map, the 6 move and 7 range of the Kravs gives them the ability to easily escape the 4 move, 2 range Cathar leading me to say if I can engage them now, I had better do so, because I may never get to attack them again.

Although my official answer would be to engage 3 Kravs with 3 Spearmen, and let a 4th attack from range (Letting his attack be the first and upon a kill attempt a 2nd ranged attack and so on...)

[caps]

Originally Posted by C$$

So, you're Heroscape instincts are pretty good huh? Would you say... sharper than a razor? Keener than a hawk's eye? More refined than granulated table sugar, even? Well, why don't we put them to the test?

*Disclaimers:
1. Consider these quizzes like you're sitting at a tournament table: you don't have time to run the calculations. Take a moment, consider the scenario, then listen to your gut.

2. Obviously there are lots of strategic concerns (map positioning, order marker placement, etc etc). For simplicity, ignore all considerations but what's given in the scenario.

So... without further ado:

SCENARIO 1:

You have a Cather Spearman against a Krav Magna Agent. You can either:

1. Move adjacent to the Krav and attack, negating his stealth dodge, but giving him height and losing your extra attack die from impale (2 attack on 4 defense).

-OR-

2. Stay one space away from the Krav and attack at level height. This gives your spearman an extra attack die with impale and one less defense die for the Krav, but it brings stealth dodge into play (3 attack on 3 defense with stealth dodge).

Which choice has a higher chance of killing that pesky Krav?

The answer is....

Spoiler Alert!

It's really close, but option 2 is slightly better:

1) Wound chance of 2 attack on 4 defense from the probability table: 0.247

2) I didn't find a table for this one, but it's not too tough of a calculation:
(probability of at least 1 skull) * (probability of 0 shields)
(1 - probability of NO skulls) * (probability of 0 shields)
(1 - (1/2)^3) * (2/3)^3 = 0.259

Basically a wash, but sometimes even that 1% matters

Stay tuned for another question next week... or when I feel like it.

Option 1, definitely.

Originally Posted by kevindola

I appreciate the assumptions and external variables we are supposed to ignore, but the relevant figures' other inherent stats lead me to conclude that I would take the 2v4 engaged options with reduced emphasis on the actual probability kill values.

On any given map, the 6 move and 7 range of the Kravs gives them the ability to easily escape the 4 move, 2 range Cathar leading me to say if I can engage them now, I had better do so, because I may never get to attack them again.

Although my official answer would be to engage 3 Kravs with 3 Spearmen, and let a 4th attack from range (Letting his attack be the first and upon a kill attempt a 2nd ranged attack and so on...)

kevindola's answer is the most persuasive, imo.

[Agent Minivann]

That is a tough call. I'd probably go with range because I have a higher probability of getting a skull and my opponent would have a better chance of getting 0 shields. Going engaged is almost more about can my opponent roll 2 shields every time I get that .25 chance of 2 skulls.

It is interesting that the probabilities are that close.

[C$$]

Originally Posted by kevindola

I appreciate the assumptions and external variables we are supposed to ignore, but the relevant figures' other inherent stats lead me to conclude that I would take the 2v4 engaged options with reduced emphasis on the actual probability kill values.

On any given map, the 6 move and 7 range of the Kravs gives them the ability to easily escape the 4 move, 2 range Cathar leading me to say if I can engage them now, I had better do so, because I may never get to attack them again.

Although my official answer would be to engage 3 Kravs with 3 Spearmen, and let a 4th attack from range (Letting his attack be the first and upon a kill attempt a 2nd ranged attack and so on...)

Haha, that's probably my biggest gripe with the Cathar. Even if you brave the spear and engage one, it doesn't mean you've taken away his impale. One of his buddies is just going to run up, poke you at range (more often than not THROUGH the spearman you just engaged), and kill your guy. At which point the tied up spearman is now free to poke someone else, and so on...

In short, with braced spear they are very good at denying your melee squaddies attacks, but reach makes it very easy for them to get most of their attacks at full force. But I digress...

Definitely feel free to explain your choice, but the answer I give is going to be very limited in scope. Please consider these quizzes more as puzzles with some interesting, possibly unintuitive, underlying statistics than anything even remotely resembling a strategy guide or tactical advice.

[Crixus33]

Originally Posted by kevindola

I appreciate the assumptions and external variables we are supposed to ignore, but the relevant figures' other inherent stats lead me to conclude that I would take the 2v4 engaged options with reduced emphasis on the actual probability kill values.

On any given map, the 6 move and 7 range of the Kravs gives them the ability to easily escape the 4 move, 2 range Cathar leading me to say if I can engage them now, I had better do so, because I may never get to attack them again.

Although my official answer would be to engage 3 Kravs with 3 Spearmen, and let a 4th attack from range (Letting his attack be the first and upon a kill attempt a 2nd ranged attack and so on...)

Unless the Cathar has MDG and/or Count Raymond. This give them a threat range of 7 or 8 (depending on how many move boosts you have) which is enough to catch the Krav who has a normal range of 7.

[dok]

Love this thread, good stuff all around.

The most important point I haven't seen considered yet is the probability of the spearman getting killed on the next turn if you miss. This makes the question even more map-dependent, of course. But, ceritus paribus, if you can deny the Krav height in the event of a miss on your attack, that's pretty important.

If the Krav has places where it can run to where you won't be able to attack on the next OM, then that does trump other considerations most of the time. Gotta tie 'em down.

Another important point is where the Krav army's next OM is. As soon as a spearman engages, he loses braced spear, so he becomes a prime target for melee figures. If I thought the next OM was on the Krav, I might engage to hold the agent in place, but if I thought the next OM was on a melee figure, I might stay unengaged, on level ground, and keep braced spear in play.

[SuperflyTNT]

#2. Better odds I think. Rather face the one-shield-block than him throwing extra dice.

[C$$]

Who's up for round 2? This information MAY come in handy if you're playing in Online Season 10 *wink* *wink*

*Disclaimers:
1. Consider these quizzes like you're sitting at a tournament table: you don't have time to run the calculations. Take a moment, consider the scenario, then listen to your gut.

2. Obviously there are lots of strategic concerns (map positioning, order marker placement, etc etc). For simplicity, ignore all considerations but what's given in the scenario.

S2: The Archers that Cried Wolf

You have the Wolves of Badru. You're playing against the Tagawa Samurai Archers. Do you

1. Use your normal attack against the archers and risk the dreaded Samurai Counterstrike? (4A vs 3D down, 3A vs 3D level, 3A vs 4D up)

-OR-

2. Go with the wolves special attack and gamble on Pounce Implosion? (5A vs 3D down, 5A vs 3D level, 5A vs 4D up)

The answer is....

Spoiler Alert!

It depends on what your your goal is. Here is the necessary data from the probability tables:



1) If you want to keep your little doggies alive, you're best off using regular attacks.
2) If you want to kill archers, use the pounce.
3) If you want to get the most out of an attack (i.e. gain the most points on your opponent) you'll want to maximize this formula:

Point Gain = (Prob killing archer) * (Archer point value) - (Prob killing wolf) * (Wolf point value)

Run the numbers, and you get normal attack down, pounce level, pounce up. This is the "correct" answer.

Further thoughts:
What if you have Khosumet?
What if your opponent has Ray Ray?
What if your opponent has Hatamoto "OH NO YOU DIDNT" Taro?

[caps]

Hm... if I have height, it's definitely 1. If they have height, it's definitely 2. If we're on level ground it's tough to decide without knowing the rest of the situation... maybe attack some with Pounce and some with a Normal Attack.

[kolakoski]

Well met!

Live by the Pounce; Die by the Pounce!