Diplomacy

[All Your Pie]

Alrighty, let's see if I can get this down in a reasonable enough manner. Again, I was France.

I went into this game blind and I more or less stayed that way. My intuition was that France was a pretty good power to start out as, with basically unrestricted access to the Spanish Peninsula. In the first year I was happy to make whatever concessions to my neighbors that would allow me to secure those two points. On the diplomacy side of things, my initial thoughts were that an alliance with Austria would be beneficial. This, I think, was a miscalculation--Austria has too many pressing concerns to gain much from working with a power that doesn't border them, and as a result of my talks I somewhat neglected my more immediate neighbors. In 1902, both Germany and England violated our pre-established neutral zones, though thanks to warnings from Russia I was able to anticipate this.

I knew fighting both of my fellow western powers at once was going to be a losing battle. Since I had managed to position a fleet behind England's lines, I decided to side with Germany--I could promise them some concrete results that would quickly gain ground against England if we worked together. Fall 1903 was the turning point here--Germany took Sweden, and an unexpected offer of support from Russia allowed me to take Norway. At that point, defeating England was a matter of inevitability.

While I was finishing them off, however, Italy began to move against me. With Turkey focusing on Russia and the Italy-Turkey border seeming free of conflict, an alliance there became fairly clear to me. At that point, Russia and I agreed that only two things could happen--an alliance of Russia, France, and Germany against them, or a Turkish and Italian victory. Unfortunately, in defending against Italy's naval assault, I didn't have the forces to guard the mainland, and Italy was able to convince Germany to attack me. At that point, any hope of a resistance was lost.

D_S, I noticed at several points during the game you mentioning that the results seemed unusual. Having never played before, I'm curious about what exactly you meant. Are there certain ways that these games normally go and certain events that didn't occur here?

[Dad_Scaper]

There were little things here and there that were, in fact, unusual. Repeated bounces in TRI were pretty rare, for instance. No Italian builds in '01 are very rare, and can doom the little green pieces pretty easily. As I recall, the opening in the West was pretty standard.

Don't regret trying to work with Austria. Normally, the best-informed players will benefit from their intelligence-gathering efforts. By working, for instance, with Austria, you could have learned valuable information about Italy's intentions, and by working with Russia you could have learned about England, and so on. Little clues.

The big mystery to me is why Kinseth did not take the solo when it was dangling in front of him. I hope he addresses that point. I think there were two factors: (1) the possibility of an IT 2 way draw was so appealing to him, aesthetically, that he would forego the solo. Two-way draws are rare beasts in competitive Dip, so *any* 2WD is a feat, but an IT 2WD is surely one of the rarest of all. So I suspect that had some appeal to him.

I also think he was partly motivated by a desire not to have to do the mental gymnastics required in a solo push. I think he was worried it would backfire somehow, and he knew that he was in the driver's seat so that Italy would have no chance to try to steal it from *him*. So I think he also was content with the proverbial bird in the hand.

I am curious for his own thoughts on the point. Kevindola's strategy of trying for that draw paid dividends, but it was brave to the point of reckless. Of course, I am here in the cheap seats and benefiting from hindsight, so it's easy for me to say. Perhaps KD felt like he didn't have any better options, and that may be true.

[kevindola]

Originally Posted by Dad_Scaper

There were little things here and there that were, in fact, unusual. Repeated bounces in TRI were pretty rare, for instance.

I think you made this up about the occurrence frequency of bounces in TRI

and btw, if we are doing another game I'm in. And I know @vegietarian18 expressed interest in participating as a first timer as well.

[kevindola]

Kinseth just has a very trusting face

[Dad_Scaper]

Erm, I don't accept that. Though I do think you were both very deft correspondents.

[Kinseth]

EGS - Part 1.

For this game, I decided to just allow my country to be given to me at random. But of all the countries, I dislike Turkey the most. Many like Turkey because of the defensive position it offers from the get go. My biggest worry is that I will be railroaded, limited options. I often thrive in the central powers, and sputter out as the outside powers.

I've played 20-30 games of online diplomacy since 2003. Mostly over at Dip2000.com (Which has just shut its doors.) I've never played a Face to Face Diploamcy game, oddly enough.

You can find my record here http://www.psamtek.co.uk/D2k/ look up Brian Koon.

Record in 21 games(Dip2000)
------------------
4 Solo Wins
4 2-way draws(AR, AI, FR, EF)
2 3-way draws
2 4-way draws
1 7-way draws
8 Eliminations

So first think I will note, that my philosophy when playing Diplomacy isn't always "Win" at all costs. I find the most enjoyable part is working as a team with a partner and dominating the board together. Most of the time when I have grabbed a solo, it is due to mistrust of my ally and the feeling that he will not live up to the end of his bargain and go for the solo himself. This is due to how negotiations are going over the course of several seasons. As Dad_scaper has mentioned, going for 2 way draws is a feat on its own, it is hard to build that level of trust as you both are nearing 14+ Supply centers. One bad move away, one player who decides he wants to play King Maker, and you are toast.

I try to make note of my history of being able to pull off 2 way draws, and how I value playing as an alliance over Solos. I feel over time, it is better way of playing and is going to get you more success. I am use to playing in a game where all players are known to eachother, so I can draw on my past games as evidence of my commitment to 2-way draws.

1901

This start of this game, I had some very good communications with Italy, Austria and Russia. Thinking this was a "newbies" game, I think all the experience players were on my side of the board. Russia was very insistent that we bounce in the black. I was wanting to work a Juggernaut with him, but he wanted to "Tip Toe" around at the beginning. I will make mention early, that I like decisive action from the onstart, and am looking for a partner that is willing to commit. I opened to Arm, because I just didn't see me working with Russia and his style. It also shows the board there is no fear of a Juggernaut and that you can work with Turkey. When people see the Juggernaut show up, they figure they have to do their best to stop it. Which I am fine with, but if it isn't there, must as well make sure people understand that.

Italy/Austria/Russia all have bounces with eachother. I start talking to Italy about offering him a convoy into Greece as an alliance opener. I was worried about the Italy/Austria alliance, especially with Russia being an issue for me. I decided to bounce Italy out of Greece. Blamed it on miscommunication I think, I don't remember how I played that one off.

But the Net Result, Italy didn't get a build.



1902

I am in the corner, all alone. THIS is why I dislike playing Turkey. If you don't make a friend, you are in trouble. Somehow, Austria has both Italy and Russia doing his dirty work. I spoke with Italy, and he referenced that he has read/heard much about Italy and Turkey cannot work together. I said that is a bunch of Hogwash, any country can work with any country. (I think this is part of what Dad_Scaper was mentioning in his EGS comments.) Here is some of our discussions...

Italy/Turkish Exchanges

Italy to Turkey

Spoiler Alert!

Uh huh, excuse you until after the deadline...
Greetings Turkey,

I am currently weighing my options. Do you have any plan proposals
that I should mull over?

If I were to throw my lot with the failing Turkish empire, what exactly
would you propose? I will be taking Tunis for sure this fall. I don't
see a grand reason not to take that 5th supply center. The only reason
not to is if you are going to sell me on an Austrian betrayal at
Greece, but I'm not sure that's something I should expect right now.

Unfortunately for you, I am having trouble seeing how the Papal States
and the Turkish Empire can coexist long term. However I am a
reasonable man, and but God's humble servant.

I am willing to listen.

Me(Turkey) to Italy

Spoiler Alert!

Listen, I've played diplomacy since 2003, every country can work with
any other country. There isn't a "X cannot ally with Y." I know you
are new to the game. It is simple, Turkey would commit to building
Armies while leaving the fleets for Italy to handle.

There are ways to "Get out of eachothers ways."

If we continued as allies(That is a big "IF", I don't think you have
given me a fair shake from the get go, for obvious reasons.), we have a
real natural way of working together. As we gobble up Austria between
us, you move north and west, while I move north.

If you continue as Austria's ally, and you are somehow convinced he
turns on Russia, since Austria has both of you on his pocket, he will
attack one or the other.

You have to move an attack me, at the farthest end of the board, and
likely you won't even get many of the spoils. What 1 build at Smyrna?
Is that worth moving all your units and then having to turn them all
around and face france? Meanwhile Austria will be sitting in perfect
position to stab you as you are focused on france.

The Tide is turning...

As we approach the deadline for 1902A, I am resigned to the fact that Italy and Russia are the pawns of Austria, I have little hope... Then a bird calls out, and it is Austria messaging me. He feels like Italy and Russia are closing in on him and they are poised to pinch him as I am destroyed. He wants to offer a chance to turn this around, an Olive Branch! I am eager, eager, to side with him.

His communication

Message from Austria to Turkey in agentcarr:

Spoiler Alert!

Indeed the deadline quickly approaches. The weekend is a difficult time
for me to communicate.

As for the situation, you are undoubtedly keenly aware that Austria,
Italy, and Russia are allied together to destroy you. It seemed a great
way to pick up some supply centers and remove a long term threat. (In
my eyes, if you gain lots of strength, your easiest path for supply
centers is to take Austrian ones).

However, Italy is balking at the current plan and Russia is not happy
with me occupying GAL. (Which I consider a neccessary defense, as a
Russian army in GAL poses serious threats on my well being).

The plan was to have italy move Gre-Bul while grabbing Tunis. I would
move me fleet to GRE and Russia would support Italy into Bul. That way
you would lose a center, my fleet could help get to the AEG and we
could finally crack you.

However italy now is refusing the plan to move to BUL because Italy
thinks it puts me in too controlling of a position where his army is
too stranded.

I obviously do not like this. Italy will grow to a 5th overall center
while I will remain at 4, after having just been nice enough to let
Italy into Greece?

Yeah that won't stand with me. Not when I have things to say about it.

Beyond that Russia is going to lose Sweden according to everything I
know, and has to be concerned about defending StPete long term. That
leaves him losing a unit (probably the northern fleet) while having
only A WAR and A UKR left to defend his homeland.

So I think it may be time to stop working with my former allies as they
are doing nothing for me anymore. My suggestion: We ally.

I have concerns of course about this, namely once again long term
looking forward, you have an easier time stabbing into me than I will
with you. Therefore we will need to constantly vigilant about where we
each are placed to foster long term mutually beneficial growth.

But for the next few seasons? Such growth seems easy. This phase I can
take GRE and RUM. You can take AEG or BLA. Then during the next year I
help you into SEV and maybe MOS even if we get lucky. My fleet in
Greece can hopefully aid you into the ION or beyond in time.

Now, I do get that these moves would enrage Russia and Italy and ensure
they are both against us. However I know Germany is open to working
with me, as is England and France. I was supposed to work closely with
the Italians but as I've said they no longer seem like suitable friends
now that they are not reciprocating and helping me realize growth while
they still get to grow.

Let me know what your thoughts are soon and if you are amenable to
working with me against both Italy and Russia, and what exact moves you
would be willing to consider this phase.

Message from Turkey to Austria in agentcarr:

Spoiler Alert!

I understand your position, and can understand you wanting Greece for
your own.

Since time is short, I can offer the following.

BUL S ALB - GRE
ARM - SEV
CON s ANK - BLA
ANK - BLA

You would have Ser, Bud, Gal to attack Rum with.

This would ensure he has Rum with no place to retreat too, and given he
will lose Swe, he will have to choose what to disband.

While I would like a build, I certainly understand I am in no positions
to have any kind of demands.

I have successfully run a A-T alliance , and what I know works best is
if we stay out of eachothers way as we work together. Turkey focuses on
Fleet builds while Austria focuses on Armies.

Are my moves acceptable?


End of message.

I have a meeting I have to run too, I am glad we were able to come to
an agreement, and I totally understand the position of Austria and his
views of Turkey from the start of the game.

Your long-term views line up with my thinking on how we should proceed.
I like your long term thinking, that has been lacking with
communications with Russia and Italy.

I am very very excited for this coming season, and thank you for
putting your trust into me. You won't regret it!(Whoops, he ended up regretting it... Does this make me a Liar??? )

Okay I must go, work calls (ARGH!)

Thanks,
Sultan

So the adjudication comes out, and the stab on Italy and Russia works almost perfectly, there was one issue with Ser giving too much support to attacking RUM and it should have helped attack Gre. Italy kept Greece. What I wouldn't have given to see the look on Italy and Russia's faces after that adjudication came out.

1903

Austria , who I can tell is a very very good player, is in great position. I am a pawn at this point. We start discussing things more indepth, and it realy becomes clear to me how well Austria is setup in this game. He has hooks into all the powers, England/France/Germany. As the negotiations start to unfold, I think Austria has a really strong chance to solo. I don't want to play a game to be the 2nd place loser. I decide I have to act now, and look to Italy about working together again. If I know anything in diplomacy, when someone is stabbed, they are hellbent on making the stabber pay. (hell hath no fury like a woman scorned!)

I start working with Italy on a masterful plan to stab Austria. I know all of Austria's moves, and we can gut him easily. My requirements were that I was allowed to continue to attack Russia(While leading Russia to believe I was sincere in working with him.)

The Plan
Austria's moves were going to be the following.
Tri - Ven, Alb - ADR, Ser S Rum, Gal S Rum

Italy would "pull" the rug out from underneath Austria, by allowing austria into ADR. Italy agreed to support me into Ser while Russia would move Sev to Rum. In the fall I would move Sev to Rum while supporting Russia to Bud. (That was the lie part, I never intended to vacate SEV and used my own fleet to take Rumania, netting myself a +3 build season of +Ser, +Rum, +Sev and seeing my enemies crippled)

Message to Austria after the stab.

Spoiler Alert!

Message from Turkey to Austria in agentcarr:

Yes, this game of diplomacy is a fickle beast!

Italy was working with you, I had tried to sway him to my side, but I
knew the double bounce from S01 with Ven/Tri was pre-arranged. I had
asked him to to do something different, and he gave me some strange
response.

I was offering to support his convoy into Gre in A01, but I suggested
otherwise to hide our alliance. But when he took it with your support,
he gave me a smug response of "Italy likes to keep his options open,
and honestly, from all I have read, Italy and Turkey never work well
together, and one must go."

I made an attempt to work with Russia by DMZ black, but he took it on
me anyways. I was down and out, your stab on both brought me back from
the brink.

What caused me to stab you, was how well you had the mid to late game
planned with your alliances and information. Honestly, you were much
better prepared for that part of the game than I was. I felt as Italy
and Russia would have been taken apart, you would shift your alliance
to E or G and take me out. I didn't have the influence with them like
you have/had.

So I took the chance to knock you down now, because I just felt that
inevitably we would have clashed. I didn't get the impression we would
be solid allies the whole way, the second we had disagreements as to
who would get what, I would be very worried you would cut me out as
quickly as Russia and Italy were crossed out last season. You are a
darn good player, and very good at diplomacy, can you fault me for
taking the opportunity that I did?

I never say never in diplomacy, things shift and turn on a whim from
season to season. I have to go onsite to a clients, I shall ponder if
there is a way we can work together.

Part 2 later...

[Dad_Scaper]

I think Kevindola's decision to stay in Galicia, over fierce and reasonable Russian objections, changed the course of the game. Maybe more than any one thing, as this excellent timeline demonstrates, from the Turkish perspective.

[quozl]

I'll try to post my thoughts when I get time. I was more abrasive in this game than in any other I've played and I was wondering how it came across to everyone.

~Russia

[quozl]

OK, I have some time. I've been playing Diplomacy a long time. As a kid, I played with family and friends face to face and then after growing up, played quite a bit online. I haven't played for about a decade or so though so I decided I was just going to be blunt this go-around and see where it got me.

I got Russia randomly. I started off individually asking all of my neighbors if they wanted to ally with me and everyone else if they wanted to exchange information. I usually make my long term plans depending on how people respond.

England responded by saying they wanted Norway. To me, this just seemed oppotunistic and I didn't see much potential here in a long-term ally. But maybe... so I left options open.

France readily agreed to an exchange of information, which seemed promising.

Austria gave a very long response detailing many thoughts. It was a little intimidating but seemed very workable. I had been in some very successful A-R alliances before and saw real potential here. At this time, we agreed to bounce in GAL.

Turkey responded favorably but also as vague as possible. I was disappointed that no orders were mentioned as I had talked about DMZing BLA and ARM and dividing BUL and RUM. So I asked that we bounce in BLA.

Italy responded favorably to exchanging information, then proposed an alliance against Austria and Turkey. I told Austria I was getting mixed signals from Italy and then Italy told me that Austria had relayed that information to him.

Germany agreed to an alliance but was even more vague than Turkey.

And then I see Turkey move to ARM and Germany got to BAL. Well, I guess I don't have an alliance with either of them. I did keep talking with Turkey but Germany pretty much brushed me off from then on after telling me he did it because I moved to GAL against the wishes of his ally Austria.

So, in desperation, I tried to rally Italy and Austria against Turkey saying there was an EFG alliance and we need to quickly take Turkey and the Balkans in order to combat this threat. They seemed to agree.

Fall orders came in and Austria supported me into Rum but also moved into GAL. Talk about mixed signals! And Italy was still attacking Austria.

There was tons of press being sent between me, Turkey, Austria, and Italy after that and alliances seemed to change with every press sent. It seems none of us trusted anybody. I took the Black Sea and Italy took Greece in the Spring and things looked good. Then Austria took RUM and Turkey took BLA in the Fall. and Turkey tried to support an Austrian attack on Italy, which I cut saving Greece for him. Also, England went incommunicado at this point and decided to help Germany attack my fleet in Sweden. At this point, I knew I was sunk and was just going to try eke out as much entertainment out of the situation as possible before I was eliminated.

I hit Austria the next year and Turkey the year after that. I supported France into Norway. I was just trying to do the most damage possible. It seems to have worked pretty well. I believe I was quite the thorn for the rest of the game. Sadly, Germany and England never did respond or we might have had a game going allying against the I-T alliance. But sometimes that's how it goes and so I did what I could to have fun.

[Dad_Scaper]

Q, I wonder if you agree with my thought that Austria's insistence on staying in GAL had a singularly powerful affect on the shape of the game from then on.

[quozl]

Well, I did give Austria an ultimatum that if he wanted my help, he needed to move out of GAL. Of course, I did the same with Turkey and ARM. Either one could have changed the game for me.

[Ranior]

Well I will admit that in hindsight I really missed out on an opportunity to work with Russia. This stemmed from my early feeling that a juggernaut was occuring. Reveiwing some of my correspondence it seems I believe my most compelling reason for doing so was how Russia was saying so little and didn't really seem to want my help--with hindsight it seems that was his general style he was going for this game, but it did make me fear the Juggernaut greatly in the early game, which is what lead me to try to work with Italy where I was getting good vibes from.

Given I was never feeling great about Russia, and I was putting too much faith in Italy early, I figured holding GAL would be very beneficial for the long term. I was alos still fearing if I told Russia I was leaving GAL that he would just move in--and I may just be too paranoid of that since I have in the past been burned fast as Austria with a Russian in GAl. (As that is a good quick way to die as Austria).

By the time I swapped to working with Turkey, I once again didn't think I would be needing or wanting Russian aid, so I just didn't try hard to make it happen. By the time then I was betrayed and the IT alliance was going, it was practically too late for Russia and I to amount to much, especially since France couldn't help offer much aid given what was happening in that section of the map.

I do wonder if I had just left GAL sooner if I wouldn't have had a willing ally in Russia in that Fall of 1902 who would have just helped me into Bulgaria and all would have continued on fine. In hindsight it liikely would have worked as only Italy was working with Russia at that time and the three of us could have gotten along fine for awhile. Then again perhaps that path would have led to an Italy Russia alliance that I feared who would have quickly taken me out anyhow--such is the plight of Austria though for the early game is deadly, but they are one of the stronger nations if they get a chance to grow as they have some of the shortest distance to travel to grow centers for much of the midgame.

Thanks all for submitting some post game thoughts. Always fun to dissect games and plans especially when the game takes months to play!