Feeling lucky? D20 by percentage.

[Aldin]

First I need to say that this is NOT a definitive list. It is more of an attempt to understand how hard it is to make your own luck. Therefore, I won’t include things like Isamu’s chance to dodge or Sudema’s chance to stone squad figures because I never really worry about the luck factor of those abilities. I also won’t include much in the way of lesser effects – cases where there’s a five percent chance of a great result and a ten/fifteen/twenty percent chance of a similar, but lesser result – like two wounds on Cyprien’s Chilling Touch

5% requires fourteen attempts for a >50% chance of activation
Sir Hawthorne – Stab in the Back
Kelda – Healing Touch (Cause Wounds)
Deathwalker 7000 - Self Destruct (Eight Wounds)
Runa – Helm of Mitonsoul
Sujoah – Poison Sting (Autodeath)
Morsbane – Rod of Negation (Autodeath)
Anubian Wolves – Unleashed Fury (Wolf Death) – Eliminated by Khosumet
Anubian Wolves – Unleashed Fury (Attack +8 ) – Boosted to 10% by Khosumet
Ne Gok Sa – Mindshackle – Boosted to 10% by Su Bak Na
Cyprien Esenwein – Chilling Touch (Six Wounds) – Boosted to 15% by Sonya Esenwein

Runa’s Helm of Mitonsoul is the only one of these (unboosted) that may actually be likely to function at least once in a typical game. The others are going to happen in some games and in others not all. This is luck you cannot make – though you can certainly be prepared to take advantage of it when it does show up.

10% requires seven attempts for a >50% chance of activation
Anubian Wolves Boosted Unleashed Fury (Attack +8 )
Ne Gok Sa – Boosted Mindshackle
Deadeye Dan – Sharpshooter
Shades of Bleakewood – Soul Devour
Kee Mo Shi – Mindshackle – Boosted to 15% by Su Bak Na

Now we’re getting into the area where we can make this kind of luck happen. Not with Dan or Kee Mo Shi, due to the prohibitively high cost in Order Markers, but with multiple squads of Shades rolling many D20s on a single OM and with NeGokSa bonded to the Grok Riders or the Roman Legion taking advantage of their OMs. The Wolves are a bit in between, in that you need seven OMs over more than two rounds and they or Khosumet simply may not survive long enough. In all three cases you would at a minimum need to focus about half the cost of a 500 point army on this effect to put yourself in a position to make your own luck (3xShades / 3xLegion+NGS / 3xAnubians+Khosumet).

15% requires five attempts for a >50% chance of activation
Cyprien Esenwein – Boosted Chilling Touch (Six Wounds)
Kee Mo Shi – Boosted Mindshackle
Mohicans – Concealment (Range = 2)
Marrden Hounds – Wild Pack Movement (Move+1) – Reduced to 10% by Su Bak Na

Making your luck happen doesn’t apply much here except with Cyprien. Five OMs on Kee Mo Shi is difficult to fathom, though possible. And given that you’ve spent 160 on Su Bak Na to get here, you only have 200 points to spend on supporting two relatively gimmicky figures. With Cyrpien, it simply reveals that choosing targets with lots of life to attempt Chilling makes perfect sense and will likely be rewarded as long as you keep him fed with a steady diet of OMs. Beyond that, you will almost certainly have the Marrdens pull up lame at least once per game. Even at range two some Mohicans will be probably saved each game. Outside of the Vampire, it’s not a terribly exciting area to explore.

20% requires four attempts for a >50% chance of activation
Morsbane – Rod of Negation (Negate)
Sudema – Stare of Stone (Heroes)
Braxas – Poisonous Acid Breath (Heroes)
Kee Mo Shi – Toxic Skin – Boosted to 25% by Su Bak Na
Marro Drones – Hive Swarm (Use 9) – Boosted to 25% by Su Bak Na
Marro Dividers – Cell Divide – Boosted to 25 % by Su Bak Na
Mohicans – Concealment (Range = 3)

This is an area where you start gaining some serious ability to make your own luck. A mere four attempts yields good results more often than not. For the Dividers and even fairly close Mohicans it simply shows up as a solid defensive boost. For the Drones, it just asks that you put OMs on them. In an Elf Wizard army, using Negation as half of an OM gives Morsbane an excellent chance to make things happen – especially when you include his unlikely chance at autodeath. Braxas, by focusing on heroes rather than squads can make her own luck rather quickly. It is still hard to give Kee Mo Shi, and now Sudema, enough OMs to take advantage – but in the right type of army and against the right type of foe it is a possibility.

25% requires three attempts for a >50% chance of activation
Grimnak – Chomp (Hero)
Me Burq Sa – Paralyzing State – Boosted to 30% by Su Bak Na
Venoc Vipers – Frenzy – Boosted to 30% by the Venoc Warlord
Elite Onyx Vipers – Frenzy – Boosted to 30% by the Venoc Warlord
Aubrien Archers – Frenzy – Boosted to 30% by the Venoc Warlord
Marrden Hounds – Marrden Plague - Boosted to 30% by Su Bak Na
Fyorlag Spiders – Entangling Web
Kee Mo Shi – Boosted Toxic Skin
Marro Drones – Boosted Hive Swarm (Use 9)
Marro Dividers – Boosted Cell Divide
Mohicans – Concealment (Range = 4)

Any of these abilities have at least a better than average chance of hitting every single round in the right situation. What does that mean for generating luck? It means that:

Grimnak, Me Burq Sa and the Spiders all benefit a great deal from bonding and in Grimnak’s case from attempting to chomp heroes instead of squads. Would you rather kill Raelin or the three Knights defending her? Crixus… or three of the Capuans?

For the Frenzied units and the Drones, it means making sure there aren’t many places for OMs. That way they get their maximum opportunity. The EOV suffer here a bit because they can’t replace losses and so Frenzy is less valuable to them over the course of a game.

For the Marrdens and Kee Mo Shi it argues for placement adjacent to the maximum number of opposing units – potentially giving up other advantages to maximize their D20 advantages.

Dividers do their thing regardless, but for the Mohicans we see that keeping a range of four or more is very important to getting good results from concealment.

Anything 30+% has a >50% chance of activation within two attempts and is more or less reliable as an ability. Even if it is attempted infrequently you will probably see it activate in any given game. Challenging units with EMP or Engagement Strike, among others, will very likely result in those units “getting lucky”

In a way, I just spent a lot of time saying “put a lot of Order Markers on your units with non-defensive D20 abilities”. But just as it can be insightful for some people to engage in the process of taking a couple of pages to say “2+2=4”, I hope also that this D20 breakdown may through it’s focus offer insight to some.

~Aldin, out of luck

[Einar's_Strategist]

Alteration for me: only 1-5% chance on any given roll will I ever get what I want/need... and I automaticly boost my opponent's luck 50%. It's in the games I play. I always get at least one unit mindshackled when able, if only a single attempt is made in the game. I got my units in a game mindshackled by Ne-Gok-Sa (un-boosted) 3 times out of four once in a game. (Succeeded twice, failed, succeeded third time). what are the chances of that? (oh, but I did win that game my opponent was a first time player)

[killercactus]

Originally Posted by The Heroscape Reputation Deity

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Aldin again.

This is a great post, Aldin. If you want D20 abilities to activate, use them.

I talked about the same type of thing with Sonlen back a little ways. I suggested that he works great in a cleanup scenario, because the Order Markers would be focused on him, giving him the most chances to use his two D20 specials.

That makes me want to try out some other D20 units in a cleanup capacity. I could see Aubrien Archers x3 working as an effective cleanup squad. Kee-Mo-Shi would even be OK if you could eliminate some range first. Even Venoc Vipers could really do well if they got a lot of Order Markers late in the game once the field has been thinned out.

[ChilliDog]

Great stuff Aldin, I'm bookmarking this to reread later. +Rep

[Menchy]

Great Post. +Rep

[arp12]

Nice analysis, Aldin.

[Dragonmaster384]

Nice. This is helpful for deciding which powers are reliable to use, and which ones are just a nice surprise when they actually work. I'll have to show this to some of the other guys I play with.... It might help them use they're d20 powers more efficiently.

Oh, and +Rep.

[Aldin]

Thanks for all the positive responses. I’ve been mulling over our new units and wanted to update the idea of making your own luck to include what you need in order to make your own luck in attacking the Repulsors with Soulborgs. I have leaned heavily on Sisyphus’ Probability Tables here. They are an excellent resource.

Lucky Addendums:

So you want to shoot a Repulsor?

Given the Repulsors defense of three, the first question is “how likely am I to miss and become subject to an EMP roll?” Soulborg attacks range from the Rats measly one to eight or more with a Glad/Blast army. But wait, there’s more – the Repulsors can certainly have defensive boosts as much as doubling their defense to six or even higher. I want to list four thresholds: 1/2; 1/3; 1/4; 1/10. In other words, when will they block about half, one in three, one in four or one in ten. I’ll list it as “3D:3A” meaning “to achieve this ratio when the Repulsors are throwing three defense dice, you must have three attack dice.”

Half
3D:3A, 4D:4A, 5D:5A, 6D:5A

One in Three
3D:4A, 4D:5A, 5D:6A, 6D:7A

One in Four
3D:5A, 4D:6A, 5D:7A, 6D:8A

One in Ten
3D:7A, 4D:8A

Now let’s combine that with the EMP rate. Simplistically, the EMP rate says that you can expect EMP to hit once for every three misses with a better than 50% chance of it hitting you on one of the first two. Because it removes ALL OMs from the card, if you are likely to trigger EMP on a give OM, then you should only make the attack when there are no remaining unrevealed OMs on the card. Let’s talk about some typical units:

1-2: Rats, Glads, Q10’s Machine Pistol:
Don’t bother. Even unenhanced Repulsors are likely to block you and EMP is probable in two, much less four attacks. On a final OM with no one else to attack? Go for it. Otherwise take a pass.

3: Deathstalkers, 8k, 9k Explosion, Q9 Queeglix, Blast w/2xGlad adjacent:
Against unenhanced Repulsors you might risk this with a single unrevealed OM. Out of roughly six attacks, one is going to EMP you, so it’s a gut check. If the Repulsors are enhanced in any way you’ll likely want to skip these attacks.

4: Q10 Wrist Rocket, Blast w/height+2xGlad:
There are other Soulborgs that can get four attack dice and it’s probably the mimimum you want to be throwing if you’re planning on using Soulborgs to hunt Repulsors. Against unenhanced Repulsors you’re only going to EMP about one time in ten – happening more often than not within the first six attacks. So on any unit with only two OMs this is pretty decent. If they have all three, you may want to use the first on something else. Against Repulsors with height or some other +1 boost, it’s still a gut check like 3:3, but not quite as risky.

5+: Blast w/Lots of Glads:
At what point do you comfortably start blasting away on the first OM with another potential eleven attacks that could be cancelled by EMP? I’d say you need probability firmly in your court for that one. For my tastes that point is somewhere around One in Four at a bare minimum. With One in Four you’ll lose that final OM more often than not, but you will be blasting more than a squad of Repulsors each round. Since the Overloading herd desperately needs to be thinned, this seems to be roughly the tipping point at which the chance needs to be taken. To make it happen, you need to be throwing two more dice than the Repulsors are. If you’re throwing 3+ extra you might even survive…

It isn’t hopeless for Soulborgs, but they really need to be sensitive to anything that boosts the Repulsors defense. The small hop from three to four really makes them poison for most of the borgs. Q10 is surprisingly good against them with his wrist rocket, too bad it is only two attacks. In any case, if you have as many attack dice as the Repulsors have defense dice and no unrevealed OMs it’s always worth it to try to crush some mini-mecha.

~Aldin, analytically

[cmgames]

Aldin,

I know I can go to my d20 and figure out which numbers map to your percentages, but it might be handy if you included the numbers on the OP. For instance, 5% = 20+, 10% = 19+, 15% = 18+, etc.

~Z

[Aldin]

Originally Posted by cmgames

Aldin,

I know I can go to my d20 and figure out which numbers map to your percentages, but it might be handy if you included the numbers on the OP. For instance, 5% = 20+, 10% = 19+, 15% = 18+, etc.

~Z

I appreaciate the feedback, Z. Unfortunately, there are several exceptions to that scheme. On the list are: Kelda causing wounds, Sir Hawthorne Backstabbing, Anubian Wolves dying and Morsbane's Rod of Negation (where he needs a 16-19 to negate). Off the list are all sorts of abilities that have a range (18-19 for Cyprien's three wound Chilling Touch, for example). In the end, I just went with the idea that everyone would make the conversion back to the range on the dice that they needed.

~Aldin, numerically

[ekoxe1]

I dont understand what maths this is. 5% (1 in 20) how does that require 14 attempts for more than 50% chance? Surely its 11. Where did you get 14?

similarly 10% (2 in 20) should require only 6 attempts to go over the 50% mark

no hang on, of course you're right, you are just multiplying 19/20 together (odds of not hitting) until the odds break 50%, sorry, it must have been late when I posted, move along!