Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?
What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure?
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5.776%, so approximately the chance of rolling a 20 on the D20.
P(I) = Probability of winning initiative = 0.5
P(S) = Probability of summon = 7/20 = 0.35
P(A) = Probability of rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 0.5^ 3 = 0.125
P(~A) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875
P(~B) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts = P(~A)^3 = 0.875^3 = 343/512
P(B) = Probability of not not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts (i.e. probability of rolling 3 skulls at least once) = 1 - P(~B) = 1 - 343/512 = 169/512
P(I)*P(S)*P(B) = Probability of winning initiative, then successfully summoning, and then lethal stinging at least one figure in three attempts = 0.05776 = 5.776%.