Ask Heroscape math questions here!

[CornPuff]

This thread is simple. Ask a mathy Heroscape question, and I'll try to answer it. Anyone else is welcome to chime in with answers too.

Ever wondered what the probability of some HS thing was? Want to know how to fire the Queglix gun? Thought about whether you should put Thogrim's spirit on Jotun or the Krav Magas?

Here are some sample answers to get the thread rolling....

How many rounds, on average, do I have to wait before the Airborne Elite drop?
2.5 rounds.

Whats the probability of Deathwalker 7000 rolling all blanks on defense?
5.8%

In my game last night. I had Major Q9 in Raelin's aura, giving him 9 defense. Somehow, he died in 4 attacks. 3 shots from Syvvarris on high ground, and 1 attack from Marrden Hound on even ground. What are the chances of that?

Those attacks will kill Q9 4.1% of the time

Q: How do I fire the Queglix gun?

It depends on the defense of the figures you want to shoot.
Against figures with Stealth Dodge orShields of Valor, use 1 die per attack.
Against figures with 0, 1 or 2 defense, use 1 attack die.
Against Heroes or squad figures with 3 or more defense, use 3 attack dice. It is never to your advantage to roll 2 attack dice.
edit: check out mathguys posts below. Desperate times can call for desperate measures....

Also, for math buffs, or people that question my answers, I can go deeper and actually post some equations that I use over in this thread:
http://www.heroscapers.com/community...read.php?t=612


On your mark.
Get Set.
Ask me Questions!!!!

[bushi96]

You are a stud. Here is a good one- When exactly does it become more advantageous to use Deadeye Dan's sharpshooter ability over his regular attack?

And what do you plan to do tomorrow?

what chance do i have to frenzy?

ok I'm on a train playing heroscape going 40 miles an hour headed towards skyknight whos tied to the tracks...

[Jason]

According to my calculations using 2 dice against a 2 defense unit is not inferior to chooisng 1 die

[mathguy]

Originally Posted by CornPuff

...
Q: How do I fire the Queglix gun?

It depends on the defense of the figures you want to shoot.
Against figures with Stealth Dodge orShields of Valor, use 1 die per attack.
Against figures with 0, 1 or 2 defense, use 1 attack die.
Against Heroes or squad figures with 3 or more defense, use 3 attack dice. It is never to your advantage to roll 2 attack dice.
...

Those are good general guidelines, but it also depends on the enemy attack and on the number of enemy units. Here is an example:

Q9 vs 2 squads of 4th Mass guys and give the 4th mass guys height advantage and Wait then fire and Attack glyph +1, that is

Q9 versus 2 squads with squad size 4 (8 figures total) with ATT=5, DEF=3.

Here are the Q9 win probabilities based on strategy (sticking with one strategy throughout the matchup):

333          2223         22221         1x9
3.011%       3.275%       3.301%        2.616%

This is an example where it is best to roll 2 attack dice versus 3 defense. This makes some intuitive sense because against high numbers and high attacks, Q9 is more "desperate" to make more attacks to try to take out more units.

Along this line of thinking, it is not surprising that if you reduce the number to 1 squad in the above example, then Q9 does best with 3 attack dice. But then again, if you increase the enemy attack to say 10 attack dice with just 1 squad, then Q9 does best with rolling 2 attack dice.

One final point, it is even more likely in the above example that a "combination of strategies" is best. That is, start out with one strategy (like the 22221), and as the number of enemy units go down, you might want to switch to another strategy (like the 333).

Yay math!

[toddrew]

Originally Posted by Jason

According to my calculations using 2 dice against a 2 defense unit is not inferior to chooisng 1 die

True on a single attack, not necessarily for a greater # of attacks per turn, as I assume Corn Puff computed.

And, Corn Puff, please do post the calculations, like all of our math teachers indoctornated us: Show your work!

Like mathguy, thanks for your posts.

One can't be worried about coming off as wonky, given the setting

[CornPuff]

I like your numbers, mathguy.
All my numbers are done with chance to hit against 1 life units, and expected damage against multi life units.
Most of my numbers don't have a 'desperate times call for desperate measures' angle. I figure that as long as you have more units, a slow and steady pace is best, rather than trying for the lottery on every shot.
In other words, my numbers aren't always accurate for one on one situations where you are likely to lose. I'd consider rolling 2 dice with Q9 a sort of 'hail Mary', 'if this doesn't work, nothing will' type maneuver.

[CornPuff]

Now, the first answer from CornPuff!

Originally Posted by bushi96

Here is a good one- When exactly does it become more advantageous to use Deadeye Dan's sharpshooter ability over his regular attack?

That is a good question to start with.

Deadeye Dan has three attacks: Normal, Sharpshooter and Ullar Enhanced Rifle
His normal attack is 1. This can of course be boosted by Height Advantage, Taelord, Finn's Spirit and glyphs.
Ullar Enhanced Rifle can only be used on Medium figures, and only if Deadeye Dan has not moved. Its great for picking off high defense squads
Sharpshooter can only be used if DED hasn't moved. It has a 10% chance of destroying any figure.

Lets focus on how many turns it will take Deadeye to kill an enemy figure. Enemy figures have 2 relevant properties: Life and Defense.

Say we are shooting at a wounded Syvvaris from high ground (Normal Attack = 2). Say he has 2 life left with 4 defense. We check each shot's average damage to find out which will finish off Syvvaris the quickest.
Sharpshooter: Avg. Damage = 0.2
Ullar Enhanced Rifle: Avg Damage = 0.5
Normal Attack: Avg Damage = 0.56

So we would attack Syvvaris with a normal attack.
Bang! Syvvaris only has one life left now. We want the attack that has the highest chance of finishing him off.
Sharpshooter: Chance to Hit = 10%
Ullar Enhanced Rifle: Chance to Hit = 50%
Normal Attack: Chance to Hit = 44%
Looks like its time to switch to the Ullar Enhanced Rifle for the final blow.

This is just an example, I've attached a pdf that shows which attack is best against many combinations of Life and Defense.

I hope this helps. Good luck shooting Charos in the eye!

[mathguy]

CornPuff: Indeed "desperate times call for desperate measures" is a good way of putting it. And frankly in that example I posted, it only matter a tiny amount anyway to use the better strategy.

Here is another neat situation, say Q9 with height advantage versus DW9K within Raelin's aura.

Q9 with height win percentages versus DW9K within Raelin's aura.

Q9      vs   DW9K                      Q9       vs   DW9K
ATT 5        ATT 4                 Gueglix 333       ATT 4
DEF 8        DEF 11                   DEF 8          DEF 11
no special

83.452%                             80.633%

Q9 does best in this scenario to not use his special attack.

But if DW9K did not have his defense boosted by Raelin, that is with a DEF 9 only, then Q9 does better to use the Gueglix 333 strategy.

It's fun thinking about when and why certain strategies are better.

[CornPuff]

Originally Posted by Ultradoug

what chance do i have to frenzy?

Venocs Vipers, Elite Onyx Vipers and Aubrien Archers Frenzy on the roll of a 16 or higher.

Every time you roll the D20, you have a 25% chance of rolling a 16 or higher, and Frenzying. On average, you will frenzy once every 4 rolls of the dice. But when you frenzy, you get to go again, so once every 3 turns, on average.

If you draft the Venoc Warlord, you can Frenzy on a 15 or higher. This bumps you up to a 30% of Frenzy. On average you would roll frenzy every 3.3 rolls.

If you also grab a glyph of Lodin, then your vipers will frenzy whenever you roll 14 or higher, or 35% of the time. This means an average of 2.9 rolls until the next frenzy.

So, if you draft the Venoc Warlord, your vipers will Frenzy almost every other turn, as opposed to once every 3 turns.

[CornPuff]

I decided to split the thread. After all, not everyone needs to see our equations :P

Heroscape Math Questions and answers will stay here.

We can do behind-the-scenes math talk over here:
http://www.heroscapers.com/community...read.php?t=612

[mathguy]

Originally Posted by CornPuff

...
Every time you roll the D20, you have a 25% chance of rolling a 16 or higher, and Frenzying. On average, you will frenzy once every 4 rolls of the dice. But when you frenzy, you get to go again, so once every 3 turns, on average.
...

Technically, what it means is that on average you get to go an extra 1/3 turn (move) for every turn of the round (game turns). But you still should expect to frenzy (one or more) only once every 4 game turns. Sorry to be technical.