Erevan Sunshadow Pre-Release Discussion Thread

[killergoat72]

okay I think I missed something what scenario is everyone talking about on page 2?

[artemiscorso]

It doesn't really matter how you state it, if you roll 2 dice you have a 25%
chance of rolling 2 skulls(the average roll for 4 skulls), and then getting to roll 4 dice. You don't really get the damage of 2 dice because if you're rolling again it means you rolled 2 skulls which is the average roll for 4 dice, not 2.

[Quintaton16]

Wow. He can teleport inside castles! Just like Tul-Bak-Ra! Except Tul-Bak-Ra ca do it more than once! And has twice the defense! And can bring his buddies with him!

But wait, there's more! He has a special attack! And it can maybe attack twice! Or more! Except it's impossible to get a greater that 25% chance of it working again! And the only viable options for doing damage make the probability worse! And Shotgun Sullivan has a special attack too! For 15 fewer points! and James Murphy does too and he has a Whip! And both of them have far greater chances of multiple attacks! And even when they can't get them, they open up the game by making the opponent space out his units! And, oh wait, Tul-Bak-Ra has a special attack too.

I am not impressed. The only reason he is at all worth his points is that his life regenerates as per the dungeon rules and Johnny Shotgun isn't allowed on Dungeon Crawls.

And artemiscorso, I see where you are coming from, but if the situation is that desperate, you are still far better off taking the four guaranteed dice. Yes, there is a chance of a two skull and a four die role, but there is a 75% chance, too, that you get a lousy little 0-1 skull role that even a Deathwalker would have trouble whiffing on. It's far better to roll four dice and hope.

[fomox]

The four dice is clearly better unless you really need to kill multiple targets. (And even then, it's a longshot.) Even against a 1 defense troll, the 4 attack is better.

[dok]

Originally Posted by artemiscorso

It doesn't really matter how you state it, if you roll 2 dice you have a 25%
chance of rolling 2 skulls(the average roll for 4 skulls), and then getting to roll 4 dice. You don't really get the damage of 2 dice because if you're rolling again it means you rolled 2 skulls which is the average roll for 4 dice, not 2.

By the same token, the 75% of the time, you're not really getting 2 dice damage, because you can't roll 2 skulls if you're in the 75% bin.

These two effects cancel out. Rolling two skulls (again, except against Venocs or KMA) is a bad play.

I will provide hard numbers on this in the book thread.

[dok]

Originally Posted by dok

These two effects cancel out. Rolling two skulls (again, except against Venocs or KMA) is a bad play.

Ugh. I've done the first cut of rigorous analysis... and it's even worse than I thought.

There is NEVER a situation where rolling less than four dice is better, on average.

The reason is very simple: the chance of getting another roll (i.e. rolling all skulls) is the same as the chance of whiffing (i.e. rolling zero skulls). So even against Venoc Vipers, the average number of kills is the same rolling two dice or four. Only the variance is different.

Against anyone but KMA or Venoc Vipers, the average is strictly worse when rolling fewer than 4 dice.

Now that I've figured this out, it actually ticks me off a little. I know it wasn't intentional - I'm sure whoever came up with the power THOUGHT it would occasionally be useful. But that doesn't change the fact that the power has options that should never be used.

This figure was already (IMO) the weakest of the set, but now I see that it's overcomplicated (for no gameplay advantage) and basically contains a sucker's bet for people who don't know the odds.

I don't want to be a negative nellie, so this will be my last comment in this vein. I'll do my analysis and post the table in the book when it's done.

[GromBloodboy]

Your not negative dok, just stating the truth. He is not very good, and I doubt will see any play beyond this scenario that comes with the MS. He will probaly be effective there, but he will not be effective on a usual field, same as Shiori. She was a welcomed addition when you played the story arc in SotM. But soon as it got to competitive play, it was a waste of OMs.

[padlock]

While I agree that as things currently stand, he's absolutely terrible and his special makes no sense, I have enough faith in Truth, Grungebob and Guru to believe that there's something we're missing here.

Perhaps another figure from a future expansion will provide some synergy to make Erevan useful and give his special meaningful choice. I'm thinking about something like a figure with an aura that allows nearby characters to treat 1 non-skull die from any roll as if it were a skull. That would certainly change things around.

[Warlord Alpha]

Originally Posted by padlock

While I agree that as things currently stand, he's absolutely terrible and his special makes no sense, I have enough faith in Truth, Grungebob and Guru to believe that there's something we're missing here.

Perhaps another figure from a future expansion will provide some synergy to make Erevan useful and give his special meaningful choice. I'm thinking about something like a figure with an aura that allows nearby characters to treat 1 non-skull die from any roll as if it were a skull. That would certainly change things around.

That is true. Maybe there is something more to this. After all, he got put with Jandar and he isn't an Elf, he is Eladrin. Perhaps those little details suggest that they wanted separate synergy for him (separate from the Elf Wizards, that is).

[rouby44]

Originally Posted by dok

Ugh. I've done the first cut of rigorous analysis... and it's even worse than I thought.

There is NEVER a situation where rolling less than four dice is better, on average.

The reason is very simple: the chance of getting another roll (i.e. rolling all skulls) is the same as the chance of whiffing (i.e. rolling zero skulls). So even against Venoc Vipers, the average number of kills is the same rolling two dice or four. Only the variance is different.

Against anyone but KMA or Venoc Vipers, the average is strictly worse when rolling fewer than 4 dice.

Now that I've figured this out, it actually ticks me off a little. I know it wasn't intentional - I'm sure whoever came up with the power THOUGHT it would occasionally be useful. But that doesn't change the fact that the power has options that should never be used.

This figure was already (IMO) the weakest of the set, but now I see that it's overcomplicated (for no gameplay advantage) and basically contains a sucker's bet for people who don't know the odds.

I don't want to be a negative nellie, so this will be my last comment in this vein. I'll do my analysis and post the table in the book when it's done.

You're completely right, dok. Without even doing the math, I could immediately sense that there would never be a situation where you would want to roll less than 4 dice. Unfortunately, we don't have you on the design team.

[mrkurtb]

(based on my memory of 1980s DnD)
Early level DnD magic users are pretty worthless and rather frustrating. They die easily, don't do much, and often feel like a burden on the adventuring party.

One of the best things about DnD is leveling up. Perhaps we'll see more from Erevan in future releases (ala Sgt Drake 2.0 and Raelin 2.0).

It would be also be cool to see the party able to "buy" spells for Erevan with points or be granted a list of spells to choose upon successful completion of a battle. These spells could either be from a scroll, which could be a one use thing or they could be permanently learned by Erevan for use throughout the remainder of a campaign.

I wouldn't give up on Erevan yet. While he may not be tournament worthy right now, I bet he'll end up earning his keep before the adventure is completed.

[Syvaris]

Well I know what I am doing with my extra Erevan now, repaint and repower. He can "level up" as mrkurtb said. He could have potential in a later expansion though so we'll see.