Chances of dodging one attack at:
3 range (Wolves of Badru only): 65% dodge chance.
4 range (Major Q10's Wrist Rocket): 70% dodge chance.
5 range (Ex. Stingers): 75% dodge chance.
6 range (Ex. 4th Mass): 80% dodge chance.
7 range (Ex. Krav Maga): 85% dodge chance.
8 range (Ex. Major Q10's Machine Pistol): 90% dodge chance.
9 range (Ex. Syvarris): 95% dodge chance
10 range (Ex. Deadeye Dan): 100% dodge chance (!!!!!!)
Chances of dodging two attacks at:
3 range: 42.25%
4 range: 49%
5 range: 56.25%
6 range: 64%
7 range: 72.25%
8 range: 81%
9 range: 90.25%
Chances of dodging three attacks at:
3 range: 27.4625%
5 range: 42.1875%
6 range: 51.2%
7 range: 61.4125%
8 range: 72.9%
Chances of dodging four attacks at:
6 range: 40.96%
7 range: 52.200625%
8 range: 65.61%
Great stats. Thanks
Bloody the Marro Stinger.
I wanted to take the calculations in a different direction. Before you roll for concealment, you roll for defense normally. So I combined the chance that the enemy gets at least one wound on Brave Arrow, then the odds that he doesn't roll for concealment. I subrtact this result from 1 to get the odds of dodgeing an attack. Here's an example of an attacker with attack=3 from 5 spaces away:
1-atLeastWounds(3,3,1)*(1-(.55+.05*4)) = 87.2685185%
atLeastWounds is a function from my
Heroscape Probability Calculator. (I know, shameless plug).
There are similar stats in the
Mohican Book.
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 1:
2 range : 94.0741%
3 range : 94.8148%
4 range : 95.5556%
5 range : 96.2963%
6 range : 97.0370%
7 range : 97.7778%
8 range : 98.5185%
9 range : 99.2593%
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 2:
2 range : 86.6667%
3 range : 88.3333%
4 range : 90.0000%
5 range : 91.6667%
6 range : 93.3333%
7 range : 95.0000%
8 range : 96.6667%
9 range : 98.3333%
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 3:
2 range : 79.6296%
3 range : 82.1759%
4 range : 84.7222%
5 range : 87.2685%
6 range : 89.8148%
7 range : 92.3611%
8 range : 94.9074%
9 range : 97.4537%
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 4:
2 range : 73.7963%
3 range : 77.0718%
4 range : 80.3472%
5 range : 83.6227%
6 range : 86.8981%
7 range : 90.1736%
8 range : 93.4491%
9 range : 96.7245%
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 5:
2 range : 69.3519%
3 range : 73.1829%
4 range : 77.0139%
5 range : 80.8449%
6 range : 84.6759%
7 range : 88.5069%
8 range : 92.3380%
9 range : 96.1690%
Chances of getting zero wounds from an attack of 6:
2 range : 66.1574%
3 range : 70.3877%
4 range : 74.6181%
5 range : 78.8484%
6 range : 83.0787%
7 range : 87.3090%
8 range : 91.5394%
9 range : 95.7697%