OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - CONGRATS FOUDZING

[Sir Heroscape]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

Heracles' 9/14 on his double turn attacks went into my 2/6 defense to perfectly take down a full health Quahon, at which point I conceded on turn 2 of round 3. Second game where Quahon has gone down in a single turn, and also my second loss. Hard to play into variance like that,

So I got curious and the odds of Heracles dropping all quahon lives in one go with double 7v3 were 24.93%
Also odds of him doing exactly 6 wounds were 16.48%
So that's 24.93+16.48*0.5 = 33.17% odds where Quahon straight up dies without being able to land on Kelda in this situation.
It's a 14+ on the D20 odds.
Basically it's not that high variance when numbers of attack dice are so big and numbers of defense dice so low (14 vs 6).

Quahon getting dropped in 3x 5v5 was another story tho.
You defnitely had one of the best builds in the format, but you lost two times to builds that were definitely designed with the Quahon build in mind.

Well, 6 wounds then is still only a 50% chance to take an LEA, so the chance that she "straight up dies" is still lower than 33%. Boromir got the 1 in 4 where Heracles does the damage, and I don't fault my play for that considering how one-sided the matchup was on that particular map.

I did take the 50% LEA into account in my calculus:
24.93+16.48*0.5 = 33.17

Well as I said Boromir's army was definitely an army that was made with beating the Quahon build in mind, so of course it was not an easy machup, a machup where a single mistake can be huge and where you'll have to be very cautious, but I still think the machup was much more balanced than what you claim it to be.
Also I don't get why you say the map is especially hard for you, with Kelda being more beneficial and easier to use for your army than for Boromir's one in my opinion.

Also you could have easily prevented Boromir to get the ~33% chance to straight up win the game, or at least greatly reduce these odds. I won't say you played bad but I feel like you kinda played into Boromir's wincon when you weren't forced too. Like you could have played the game like normal without noticing Kelda, and burning Kelda when needed much later in the game, rather than engaging and trying to burn Kelda as fast as possible. You were varianced, for sure, but not to a huge amount.

Really good points here. While I admit I didn't watch the game, or know the gamestate to accurately judge a right or wrong move...the principle Foudzing is pointing out here is key. Sometimes, to beat variance, you simple avoid the plays that will allow the variance. So even if you can engage a key target to get off a big attack, maybe you don't to avoid the counterattack. Another key point to high level play is playing and making decisions where the failed result won't tip the scales drastically. For example, Quahon IS the army. If she dies, the army is dead. So allowing her to be exposed just to get off a big attack looks all that much worse when the play fails. Like Nilfeim, you want to avoid engagements as much as possible in order to prevent the variance plays. Cause sometimes that's all it takes.

Anyway, like I said...I didn't see the game or know the gamestate...so I'm just talking generics...but also talking from experience as I've made the very mistakes I'm pointing out above.

 

[ryguy266]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

I did take the 50% LEA into account in my calculus:
24.93+16.48*0.5 = 33.17

Well as I said Boromir's army was definitely an army that was made with beating the Quahon build in mind, so of course it was not an easy machup, a machup where a single mistake can be huge and where you'll have to be very cautious, but I still think the machup was much more balanced than what you claim it to be.
Also I don't get why you say the map is especially hard for you, with Kelda being more beneficial and easier to use for your army than for Boromir's one in my opinion.

Also you could have easily prevented Boromir to get the ~33% chance to straight up win the game, or at least greatly reduce these odds. I won't say you played bad but I feel like you kinda played into Boromir's wincon when you weren't forced too. Like you could have played the game like normal without noticing Kelda, and burning Kelda when needed much later in the game, rather than engaging and trying to burn Kelda as fast as possible. You were varianced, for sure, but not to a huge amount.

How else do you play it? Heracles is able to take Kelda at literally any point in the game with his double turn. With how small the map was, he was able to shoot at my start zone with 10th Reg inside Raelin's aura without even having to move Raelin. If you only shoot spiders, Quahon can't take Kelda. If I "ignore" Kelda, Heracles has 15 effective lives. I think it's easy to point out a "mistake" when it didn't work, but blocking off Kelda from Heracles and taking in with Quahon instead was my wincon that had decent odds to work. If Heracles didn't hit that 33% chance, would I be praised for the play of blocking off Heracles from Kelda, tanking the wounds, and going into the rest of the round with a full health Quahon and spiders in the start zone. What if Quahon and the spiders had just finished him off, would it be a brilliant play? Or, if I disengaged from Heracles to snipe 10th Reg from the other side of the map and let Heracles heal 5 wounds, would I also be taking criticism? If I took a turn to move up Raelin and let the 10th Reg turn her into Swiss cheese, would that also have been a misplay? I'm a huge fan of Heracles because he is extremely difficult to play around for large figures, and giving him 5 extra lives only makes things worse. It's very bold to assume that there was another strategy that had more than 66% certainty to beat Heracles. If we replay that turn 10 times and I win 6 of those games, does it seem like such a bad play then? But like I said, it's easy to say these things when it worked out that way, so I don't know how anyone can be so confident that it was the wrong play.

 

[ryguy266]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

Really good points here. While I admit I didn't watch the game, or know the gamestate to accurately judge a right or wrong move...the principle Foudzing is pointing out here is key. Sometimes, to beat variance, you simple avoid the plays that will allow the variance. So even if you can engage a key target to get off a big attack, maybe you don't to avoid the counterattack. Another key point to high level play is playing and making decisions where the failed result won't tip the scales drastically. For example, Quahon IS the army. If she dies, the army is dead. So allowing her to be exposed just to get off a big attack looks all that much worse when the play fails. Like Nilfeim, you want to avoid engagements as much as possible in order to prevent the variance plays. Cause sometimes that's all it takes.

Anyway, like I said...I didn't see the game or know the gamestate...so I'm just talking generics...but also talking from experience as I've made the very mistakes I'm pointing out above.

As I pointed out to Foudzing, there was no way to "avoid variance" in a matchup so heavily tilted against Quahon favor. I would be very curious to hear how one would avoid engagement with Quahon with Heracles sitting next to wait-then-firing 10th Reg. Heracles was not the only piece on the board, and I had lost about 6 spiders before killing my first 10th Reg. That was the board state--sit in Raelin's aura behind spiders to avoid Heracles smacking me and let the 10th Reg have a field day, or go for 3 consecutive 6 v 7s and an entangling web on Heracles, keep him from Kelda, and expect <7 wounds in return. Like I said, there are certainly other options that drag the game out but probably also end in disaster, like moving up Raelin. I don't see a reason to criticize going for the relatively high-odds play that wins me the game when there weren't many great strategies to begin with.

Also, Quahon was not the full army. Even if Quahon was down, had the Kelda glyph not been there, I would have continued to play with my dozen spiders and Marro Warriors into the remaining dozen or so 10th and 3 health Heracles. That's a fairly close endgame. But because Kelda was still on the board, I conceded since Heracles would be able to fully heal and so the game was over. I think people might be underestimating just how effective Kelda is for Heracles.

This is probably the last I'll say on this, because I'm worried my tone will come across as derisive and not speculative to two players I respect. I know I'm certainly reading more condescension than was intended. I usually appreciate feedback on games, but having spent quite a bit of time analyzing the map and matchup beforehand, this all feels sort of like "next time, don't lose" advice instead of "here is what you could have done differently."

 

[quozl]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

I agree with you, ryguy. 66% odds are good. The only thing I see that you could have done differently is to bring up Kate earlier so she could take Kelda if Quahon fails.

 

[Sir Heroscape]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

No harm. I was trying to speak generally because, like I said, I didn’t know the gamestate…but sounds like you made a reasonable assessment with the cards you were dealt. If no Kelda on the board I’m sure you can play that game much more conservatively and avoid the Heracles revival.

 

[superfrog]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

FYI if there are rematches in the semifinals (which is possible) we will reseed to avoid those.

 

[KnightOfLight]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

Dysole and I just finished, she pulled out the win, after some pretty bad defense dice I think 4/30 shields from Quahon, the game was tilted in Dysole’s favor. I tried to make a game of it, with the spiders actually putting in quite a bit of work. I churned through the micros and endgame was marro warriors, zetacron, marcu, 4/5 raelin, and 2 spiders vs 1/5 raelin, eltahale, and about 6 rats. the marro warriors brought it down to 3/6 eltahale, 3/5 raelin, and 2 rats, long endgame but the combo of eltahale's thunder ram and the rat on wannok, the marro eventually fell. GG Dysole!!

 

[Dysole]

First One

First quarterfinals.

Round 6 is on Frostmire.

The vegietarian18 (2-0) (3) v. dysole (3-1) (1) armies are:

Rygarn's Labyrinth
* Asterios, Brute Gruts, Isamu, Major Q9, Marro Warriors, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Rygarn
Micromachines
* Eltahale, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Zetacron, Deathreaversx2, Microcorp Troopersx3

​

vegietarian18 chooses who places first.

~Dysole, moving us along again

 

[Foudzing]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 4 by 4/

Really good points here. While I admit I didn't watch the game, or know the gamestate to accurately judge a right or wrong move...the principle Foudzing is pointing out here is key. Sometimes, to beat variance, you simple avoid the plays that will allow the variance. So even if you can engage a key target to get off a big attack, maybe you don't to avoid the counterattack. Another key point to high level play is playing and making decisions where the failed result won't tip the scales drastically. For example, Quahon IS the army. If she dies, the army is dead. So allowing her to be exposed just to get off a big attack looks all that much worse when the play fails. Like Nilfeim, you want to avoid engagements as much as possible in order to prevent the variance plays. Cause sometimes that's all it takes.

Anyway, like I said...I didn't see the game or know the gamestate...so I'm just talking generics...but also talking from experience as I've made the very mistakes I'm pointing out above.

As I pointed out to Foudzing, there was no way to "avoid variance" in a matchup so heavily tilted against Quahon favor. I would be very curious to hear how one would avoid engagement with Quahon with Heracles sitting next to wait-then-firing 10th Reg. Heracles was not the only piece on the board, and I had lost about 6 spiders before killing my first 10th Reg. That was the board state--sit in Raelin's aura behind spiders to avoid Heracles smacking me and let the 10th Reg have a field day, or go for 3 consecutive 6 v 7s and an entangling web on Heracles, keep him from Kelda, and expect <7 wounds in return. Like I said, there are certainly other options that drag the game out but probably also end in disaster, like moving up Raelin. I don't see a reason to criticize going for the relatively high-odds play that wins me the game when there weren't many great strategies to begin with.

Also, Quahon was not the full army. Even if Quahon was down, had the Kelda glyph not been there, I would have continued to play with my dozen spiders and Marro Warriors into the remaining dozen or so 10th and 3 health Heracles. That's a fairly close endgame. But because Kelda was still on the board, I conceded since Heracles would be able to fully heal and so the game was over. I think people might be underestimating just how effective Kelda is for Heracles.

This is probably the last I'll say on this, because I'm worried my tone will come across as derisive and not speculative to two players I respect. I know I'm certainly reading more condescension than was intended. I usually appreciate feedback on games, but having spent quite a bit of time analyzing the map and matchup beforehand, this all feels sort of like "next time, don't lose" advice instead of "here is what you could have done differently."

Yeah I think you are right it was a difficult machup, I tjink you went for a gameplan that was solid.

 

[Dysole]

Last Of It

Round 5 is on Remains of Clionesia.


The foudzing (2-1) v. zackando (2-1) armies are:

* Isamu, Laglor, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Microcorp Troopersx5
Cathar Lee Griffin
* Heracles, Marcu Esenwein, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Cathar Spearmenx4

​

foudzing chooses who places first.

The vegie dad (2-1) v. srd717 (1-1) armies are:

Whirlwind assault
* Kuthnak, Marcu Esenwein, Me-Burq-Sa, Nerak the Glacian Swog Rider, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Death Chasers of Theskx6

* Bol, Isamu, Marcu Esenwein, Marro Warriors, Quahon, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Fyorlag Spidersx6 (drop 3)

​

srd717 chooses who places first.

~Dysole, on to the final round before playoffs

 

[Dysole]

Soon

This evening at 6:30 Pacific/9:30 Eastern vegie and I will be squaring off.

~Dysole, trying to make another semis with Troopers

 

[vegietarian18]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 5 by 4/

The vegietarian18 (2-0) (3) v. dysole (3-1) (1) armies are:
Rygarn's Labyrinth
* Asterios, Brute Gruts, Isamu, Major Q9, Marro Warriors, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Rygarn
Micromachines
* Eltahale, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Zetacron, Deathreaversx2, Microcorp Troopersx3

I defeated Dysole tonight. This was a really interesting matchup, with both of us running far more pieces than the average VCheese army, trying to find matchup smoothness in a variety of tools. That made this a complex game, about which pieces faced off into what. I felt like I had an edge coming into the matchup, because I had Rygarn to help me flex into better timed threats, but a lot of it was going to come down to gameplay and dice. Ultimately, I feel like Dysole played a little better than me, but I was able to ride my matchup edge enough to keep this one in the hands of the dice, and fate stuck with me.

I came in very afraid of Zetacron so I lined up my heroes one row back so Zeta could not shoot them on turn 1. I opened straight Marro Warriors to try to dissolve the Zetacron threat should it come. Instead, Dysole opened Rats. My Marro Warriors used opening initiative tempo to blast Dysole's Raelin for three wounds, which prevented her from ever moving up and covering the board. But they were caught by Rats and went down to Microcorp shots.

Dysole seized both glyphs with the Rats, so I moved up my Raelin so my Q9 could take safe shots on glyphs from her aura. Q9 cleared Wannok, and then went to town on Microcorp, who often had to push out of Dysole's wounded Raelin's aura to shoot him and Raelin. Q9 killed a few, and then Dysole brought out Eltahale. Eltahale had an okay showing: two wounds to Q9, soaked a ton of Brute Grut and Q9 fire, but her big Thunder Step blow on to Q9 was a 2/7 skull roll that was easily blocked. She went down, but Raelin fell shortly after to Microcorp fire that also brought down the Brute Gruts.

Q9 was still unwounded, but I was down to just Q9 and Rygarn. Dysole brought out Zetacron for a big Ulaniva-boosted 2/3 skull roll that finally scratched the Soulborg for two wounds. The game became tense from there, as Microcrop dwindled and Q9's half-life was threatened. I had a huge Quiglex turn where I popped Zetacron's final life and brought the Microcorp under four members, and that basically sealed it. Q9 patiently ground through remaining Microcorp and Rats and Raelin, graciously letting Rygarn soak the Wannok hits, and sealed the win without taking another wound.

Good game Dysole.

 

[Sir Heroscape]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 5 by 4/

Awfully quiet around here. Please post if you've got your game scheduled. I'm hoping to cast the Quarterfinals and on...so I wanna keep up on games as best I can

 

[MegaSilver]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 5 by 4/

Awfully quiet around here. Please post if you've got your game scheduled. I'm hoping to cast the Quarterfinals and on...so I wanna keep up on games as best I can

I had just got done with HexiCon so I hadnt scheduled with Boromir yet.

But we are playing Tuesday night around 9 pm CT.

 

[Dysole]

More Things

Round 6 is on Frostmire.


The dok (2-0) v. srd717 (2-1) armies are:

Party like it's 2010
* Isamu, Major Q9, Marro Warriors, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Deathreaversx4, Fen Hydra

* Bol, Isamu, Marcu Esenwein, Marro Warriors, Quahon, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Fyorlag Spidersx6 (drop 3)

​

dok chooses who places first.

~Dysole, who isn't sure if Sir H got to her game against vegie because she thought she'd given enough heads up

 

[Sir Heroscape]

Re: More Things

~Dysole, who isn't sure if Sir H got to her game against vegie because she thought she'd given enough heads up

I did...but I was too late...I had the wrong timezone in my head, so I missed like all of the game

Hoping I'll be able to catch all the quarterfinals and on.

 

[Dysole]

Silver Lining

~Dysole, who isn't sure if Sir H got to her game against vegie because she thought she'd given enough heads up

I did...but I was too late...I had the wrong timezone in my head, so I missed like all of the game

Hoping I'll be able to catch all the quarterfinals and on.

I mean you could always stream my stream.

~Dysole, guessing if you had to miss one at least it's one that was already recorded in some way

 

[boromir96]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 5 by 4/

I defeated Megasilver in our game tonight. I didn't move Raelin out of my SZ and instead opted to just pod 10th on the lvl 3 rock plateau right outside the SZ and take every early shot I could. Mega developed Raelin onto lvl 4 on his R1OM3 but she fell to just 3 3v4s which really put him in a hole. Nerak moved up to the opposite lvl 4 and Chasers engaged when they could but the 10th chewed through them pretty quickly, and dropped Nerak without much trouble. MBS didn't hit a stare all game and despite taking 4v4s most turn only got a couple kills on 10th. With Chasers dwindling and my front 10th depleted the battle shifted back into my SZ. MBS hid behind a column and was able to put 4 wounds on Raelin over the next couple turns, but the 10th cleared out all but one Chaser and then Hercules dropped MBS with 6/7 skulls. Pel moved up onto lvl 3 and on my OM3 Heracles ran in and put 4 wounds onto the Ogre. Mega called it there with a 2 life Pel, a single Chaser and MWs left against a full health Heracles and Marcu, one health Raelin and ~8 10th. Mega's early Raelin whiffs really hurt the Chaser's ability to weather any attacks and deal consistent damage. gg!

 

[Dysole]

Penultimate

Round 6 is on Frostmire.

The chris perkins (3-0) (5) v. boromir96 (4-1) armies are:

Big Blue (and Estivara too)
* Estivara, Marro Warriors, Quahon, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], Fyorlag Spidersx5

* Heracles, Marcu Esenwein, Raelin the Kyrie Warrior [RotV], 10th Regiment of Footx4

​

chris perkins chooses who places first.

~Dysole, moving us along

 

[Foudzing]

Re: OHS Special Event - Bring the VCheese #4 - Round 5 by 4/

Zackando and I are starting.