Really good points here. While I admit I didn't watch the game, or know the gamestate to accurately judge a right or wrong move...the principle Foudzing is pointing out here is key. Sometimes, to beat variance, you simple avoid the plays that will allow the variance. So even if you can engage a key target to get off a big attack, maybe you don't to avoid the counterattack. Another key point to high level play is playing and making decisions where the failed result won't tip the scales drastically. For example, Quahon IS the army. If she dies, the army is dead. So allowing her to be exposed just to get off a big attack looks all that much worse when the play fails. Like Nilfeim, you want to avoid engagements as much as possible in order to prevent the variance plays. Cause sometimes that's all it takes.
Anyway, like I said...I didn't see the game or know the gamestate...so I'm just talking generics...but also talking from experience as I've made the very mistakes I'm pointing out above.
As I pointed out to Foudzing, there was no way to "avoid variance" in a matchup so heavily tilted against Quahon favor. I would be very curious to hear how one would avoid engagement with Quahon with Heracles sitting next to wait-then-firing 10th Reg. Heracles was not the only piece on the board, and I had lost about 6 spiders before killing my first 10th Reg. That was the board state--sit in Raelin's aura behind spiders to avoid Heracles smacking me and let the 10th Reg have a field day, or go for 3 consecutive 6 v 7s and an entangling web on Heracles, keep him from Kelda, and expect <7 wounds in return. Like I said, there are certainly other options that drag the game out but probably also end in disaster, like moving up Raelin. I don't see a reason to criticize going for the relatively high-odds play that wins me the game when there weren't many great strategies to begin with.
Also, Quahon was not the full army. Even if Quahon was down, had the Kelda glyph not been there, I would have continued to play with my dozen spiders and Marro Warriors into the remaining dozen or so 10th and 3 health Heracles. That's a fairly close endgame. But because Kelda was still on the board, I conceded since Heracles would be able to fully heal and so the game was over. I think people might be underestimating just how effective Kelda is for Heracles.
This is probably the last I'll say on this, because I'm worried my tone will come across as derisive and not speculative to two players I respect. I know I'm certainly reading more condescension than was intended. I usually appreciate feedback on games, but having spent quite a bit of time analyzing the map and matchup beforehand, this all feels sort of like "next time, don't lose" advice instead of "here is what you could have done differently."
