Green Wyrmling discussion and playtesting

[Tornado]

FLEDGLING COUNTERSTRIKE
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent attacking figure, if at least as many dice show shields as do not show shields, all excess shields count as unblockable hits on the attacking figure.

This is an interesting power idea. I did not like it at first but the more I think about it, the better I like it. It requires a 50% or better shields result just to have a chance to wound. What I find cool is that I think you are better off throwing four defense over five as with four you need only two shields to have a chance to counter but with five dice you need three. When your opponent blanks out, you still need to roll well to counterstrike. I think it is worth a playtest.

[dok]

I'd rather throw 5 defense dice than 4. Counterstrike is cool, but not dying is even better.

[Tornado]

Good point. Still interesting though.

[Sir Dendrik]

Soft banning Raelin I'm talking about casual play, which is where a lopsided Green Wyrmling will matter. I doubt Green Wyrmlings will affect top tier armies any more than Warriors of Ashra, as you say.

It's just that at one point I made a custom a Elemental which had an equivalent to the Roman's Shield Wall, though they could get to 6 defense. They tested fine so I played them against a friend of mine, but for the first time I threw in Raelin (uh oh, I contradicted myself :P). He had Dwarves and they couldn't even touch my 8 defense, and it could regenerate. It was really embarrassing shutting him out like that because I had vouched for my custom, and he hadn't really wanted to play with customs in the first place.

I just don't feel comfortable bringing something into the game that results in shut outs, even if Warriors of Ashra already exist. There are other ways to do this. Also I'm still confused as to whether this is an SoV thing or a personal custom thing. The world may never know.

Edit// The irony with that elemental custom, now that I think about it, is that it had 3 move so a squad of arrow gruts could conceivably shut them out.

Edit// Adam. :P

[NecroBlade]

Originally Posted by dok

Heck, try playing TSAx4 + Raelin + Hatamoto freaking Taro sometime against a melee squad army.

Faced that at a tournament once...killed a whopping two TSA before losing all my Knights + Heroes.

Can we please just move this thing forward already?

Another idea for consideration:

FLEDGLING COUNTER STRIKE
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent attacking figure, if a Green Wyrmling rolls at least twice as many shields as the attacking figure rolls skulls, the attacking figure receives one wound.

One wound keeps it weaker against Heroes, though that may not be necessary and it could easily be changed to all excess like normal CS.

Against 0 skulls, you need 1+ shields.
1: 2+.
2: 4+.
3: 6+ so you better have Raelin and a miracle.

In my experience with CS, even if they GW's are "not dying", FCS will be fairly unlikely as I usually see 1-wound CS when it triggers at all.

[dok]

Originally Posted by NecroBlade

Faced that at a tournament once...killed a whopping two TSA before losing all my Knights + Heroes.

No doubt. The melee-shredders are out there.

Originally Posted by NecroBlade

Can we please just move this thing forward already?

I'll try to put together a couple different prospective cards tonight. People can discuss and playtest what they want to.

[dok]

Well, at the end of the day I don't really feel the need to go to the mat over regular counterstrike. So here's a draft card with the "at least as many shields" version:



I like this nerf of counterstrike because it makes some intuitive sense, and doesn't hurt much on level ground without Raelin, but serves to weaken the extreme Raelin/height-backed counterstrike.

Obviously that image is terrible - if someone gets the Safari minis then please post a better photo.

EDIT: Foiled by Magic Set Editor again... my version has Wyrmling Bonding wrong for some reason. (This got me in trouble with the Deepwater Warrior, as some may recall.) The intention here is for the bonding to have the OM language in there like usual.

[Lazy Orang]

Originally Posted by dok

Well, at the end of the day I don't really feel the need to go to the mat over regular counterstrike. So here's a draft card with the "at least as many shields" version:



I like this nerf of counterstrike because it makes some intuitive sense, and doesn't hurt much on level ground without Raelin, but serves to weaken the extreme Raelin/height-backed counterstrike.

Obviously that image is terrible - if someone gets the Safari minis then please post a better photo.

EDIT: Foiled by Magic Set Editor again... my version has Wyrmling Bonding wrong for some reason. (This got me in trouble with the Deepwater Warrior, as some may recall.) The intention here is for the bonding to have the OM language in there like usual.

Love it - seems to solve the problem perfectly, IMO.

[Ixe]

The power reads a little weird, but I think it qualifies as a fledgling version of counterstrike. The stats for it are a bit weird, however.

Here are some stats for those who are interested:

Spoiler Alert!

4 Defense
Attack | Probability | Average Wounds
0 | 0.4074 | 0.9383
1 | 0.4074 | 0.7346
2 | 0.3333 | 0.5309
3 | 0.2469 | 0.3642
4 | 0.1721 | 0.2407
5 | 0.1150 | 0.1547
6 | 0.0745 | 0.0972
7 | 0.0471 | 0.0600
8 | 0.0292 | 0.0365
9 | 0.0178 | 0.0219

5 Def
0 | 0.2099 | 0.6790
1 | 0.2099 | 0.5741
2 | 0.2099 | 0.4691
3 | 0.1893 | 0.3642
4 | 0.1559 | 0.2695
5 | 0.1197 | 0.1916
6 | 0.0873 | 0.1318
7 | 0.0611 | 0.0881
8 | 0.0414 | 0.0576
9 | 0.0273 | 0.0369

6 Def
0 | 0.3196 | 1.0782
1 | 0.3196 | 0.9184
2 | 0.3196 | 0.7586
3 | 0.2922 | 0.5988
4 | 0.2459 | 0.4527
5 | 0.1939 | 0.3297
6 | 0.1455 | 0.2328
7 | 0.1049 | 0.1600
8 | 0.0733 | 0.1076
9 | 0.0499 | 0.0709

7 Def
0 | 0.1733 | 0.7458
1 | 0.1733 | 0.6591
2 | 0.1733 | 0.5725
3 | 0.1733 | 0.4858
4 | 0.1653 | 0.3992
5 | 0.1481 | 0.3165
6 | 0.1250 | 0.2425
7 | 0.1002 | 0.1800
8 | 0.0769 | 0.1299
9 | 0.0569 | 0.0915

Looking over the stats, we can see some weird things come out of this. Ignoring Raelin, you are more likely to counterattack and kill a squad on even ground as long as their attack is less than 5. You you will deal more wounds to a hero in the same scenario as long as their attack is less than 3.

With Raelin, you are better off killing a squad on low or even ground as long as their attack is less than 7, or deal more wounds to a hero as long as their attack is less than 6. On even ground, you are more likely to counterattack a squad without Raelin as long as their attack is less than 3, and you will always deal more wounds to a hero.

Basically, at least as far as counterstrike is concerned (which is different from just surviving the attack), you are usually better off having even defense until attack rolls start climbing pretty high. Against melee squads (who usually have 3+attack in the first place), these guys are more effective from a counterstrike perspective with Raelin anyway.

Matters are nevertheless curbed from regular counterstrike, however, so it should stand to make them less oppressive on that front. I feel a little torn about the power given the weird stats game it plays where it may be more optimal to defend from lower ground, but I suppose units like the Deathstalkers and Rechets have done that for attacks anyway.

[dok]

Good analysis, but you're only halfway done. You need to consider the other critical point: the probability that you actually kill the Green Wyrmling.

I'll finish on the squad end (I might come back and do the hero end later). As in your tables, the first column is attack dice and the second column is the probability of counterstrike. The third column here is the probability of killing the Green Wyrmling. The fourth column is a big one: it's the breakeven figure price where the attack is profitable. For figures more expensive than that, you don't want to attack. Higher number equals more profitable attacks.

4 Def			
0	0.4074	0	0
1	0.4074	0.099	8.505154639
2	0.3333	0.247	25.93759376
3	0.2469	0.407	57.69542325
4	0.1721	0.556	113.0737943
5	0.115	0.679	206.6521739
6	0.0745	0.776	364.5637584
7	0.0471	0.848	630.14862
8	0.0292	0.899	1077.568493
9	0.0178	0.934	1836.516854
			
5 Def			
0	0.2099	0	0
1	0.2099	0.066	11.00524059
2	0.2099	0.181	30.18103859
3	0.1893	0.321	59.35023772
4	0.1559	0.463	103.9448364
5	0.1197	0.592	173.0994152
6	0.0873	0.7	280.6414662
7	0.0611	0.786	450.2454992
8	0.0414	0.851	719.4444444
9	0.0273	0.898	1151.282051
			
6 Def			
0	0.3196	0	0
1	0.3196	0.044	4.818523154
2	0.3196	0.132	14.45556946
3	0.2922	0.25	29.94524298
4	0.2459	0.38	54.08702725
5	0.1939	0.507	91.51624549
6	0.1455	0.622	149.6219931
7	0.1049	0.718	239.5614871
8	0.0733	0.795	379.6043656
9	0.0499	0.855	599.6993988
			
7 Def			
0	0.1733	0	0
1	0.1733	0.029	5.856895557
2	0.1733	0.095	19.186382
3	0.1733	0.192	38.77668782
4	0.1653	0.308	65.21476104
5	0.1481	0.429	101.3841999
6	0.125	0.544	152.32
7	0.1002	0.647	225.998004
8	0.0769	0.734	334.0702211
9	0.0569	0.804	494.5518453

So... yes, the zigzaging counterstrike probabilities for 4->5->6->7 defense are a little strange. But when you factor in the probability of a Green Wyrmling dying, things still come out in favor of taking height with the Green Wyrmling in nearly all situations.

EDIT: for ease of viewing, here's the last column for 1-6 attack dice and the four likely GW defense levels:

	4	5	6	7
1	8.51	11.01	4.82	5.86
2	25.94	30.18	14.46	19.19
3	57.70	59.35	29.95	38.78
4	113.07	103.94	54.09	65.21
5	206.65	173.10	91.52	101.38
6	364.56	280.64	149.62	152.32

You still see some zigzaging, but it's a lot less pronounced when you factor in the possibility of Greenies dying. In just about every case, the expected points difference between 4 & 5, and between 6 & 7, are small enough that my decision about whether to position myself to defend (or attack) with an extra die would be governed by concerns other than the math - mainly, which one of us is hurt more, positionally, by losing a figure.

And of course, if there is any range or any SAs in play, then it's a no-brainer to take height, even if you're losing a fraction of a point in expected return on some attacks.

[Lyrgard]

I'm not a fan of this fledging counterstrike, mainly for the wording that feel a little ... not official. I don't like counting "not shield". And the stats zigzag makes it even stranger.

I think we should keep it simple : just counterstrike, with a limit of 1 wound max. Is it strong ? yes. But it is on a 35 point figure ! 35 point per figure is nearly on par with the most expensive common squads

- More than twice more expensive than a warrior of Ashra per figure. Granted, the ashra cannot kill unit outside of their turn, but they attack three time during their turn, and are as deadly against all melee
- 60% more expensive per figure than Tagawa Archer Samurai. Those are equally deadly, if not even more than the wyrmlings (thanks to range & counter strike), against all melee with Raelin backup.

[Heroscaper Guy]

Wording can be brought up to Dadscaper in his "Help with Wurdz" thread. In fact, I'll ask him right now for some input (on Dok's version and if it needs to be cleaned up).