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  #253  
Old March 14th, 2022, 11:53 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Deadline is this Thursday 3/14 at 11am Central time, before the games tip off.
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  #254  
Old March 15th, 2022, 12:50 PM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Tagging everyone who played last time who hasn't submitted yet. New players are welcome too. Submissions due Thursday morning before games start.

@Dysole @kevindola @Tornado @dok @superfrog
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  #255  
Old March 17th, 2022, 11:03 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Spoiler Alert!

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  #256  
Old March 18th, 2022, 08:54 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Here's everyone's picks:

Chris Perkins
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vegietarian18
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Yodaking 1
Spoiler Alert!


Yodaking 2

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kevindola
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Dysole
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superfrog
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vegie dad
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vegie mom
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Scoring update in the spreadsheet HERE. Feel free to update with games as they happen.

Everyone brought more teams than they did last year except for Dysole. Dysole's upset squad is off to an early lead.

In second, superfrog and I are locked in an early game nailbiter as we control 900 points of the same teams. Our final 100 differs, with superfrog selecting SDSU and TCU, while I selected Miami, San Fransisco, and Chattanooga. Both San Fransisco and SDSU have already fallen, making the battle between me and superfrog come down to TCU vs. Miami and Chattanooga, which will most likely be decided this weekend.

vegie dad may be already eliminated after early defeats for Iowa and Kentucky. They were popular picks but he was the only to have both.

Last edited by vegietarian18; March 18th, 2022 at 09:38 AM.
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  #257  
Old March 21st, 2022, 08:49 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Standings update:

Dysole 15
Yodaking 2 14
vegietarian18 13
kevindola 13
vegie mom 12
superfrog 12
Yodaking 10
Chris Perkins 8
vegie dad 7

There's a pretty tight battle going on at the top. Dysole holds the lead, but is running out of unique underdogs to build it with. Yodaking 2 trails Dysole by only 1 point, and has 3 of Dysole's 5 remaining underdogs, alongside Houston and Gonzaga, so he just needs Houston and Gonzaga to outperform Michigan and Saint Peter's to take control of the pool.

Kevindola and I are right behind Yodaking 2 with 13 points each. We don't have a ton of overlap with Dysole or YK outside of Miami and Michigan, but we do with each other, as we each brought Purdue and Texas Tech. If Texas Tech and Purdue do well, Kevin and I have a shot at reclaiming the lead. Kevin has other shots to win though, as he has his a lot of remaining points in powerhouses Kansas and Villanova, while I have mine in North Carolina and UCLA, who play each other next week.

Vegie Mom is right behind with 12 points, but likely needs an extremely specific scenario to win. She is another Purdue and Texas Tech picker, but has Kansas and UNC. She needs both Kansas and UNC to do well to pass me and kevin on separate routes.

superfrog also has 12 points, but he's permanently at least 1 point behind me as we share all remaining teams but he does not have Miami, so he cannot win.

Yodaking 1 has 10 points and probably some shots to win, with a decently unique remaining pool of Arizona, Texas Tech, Purdue, and Arkansas. He needs Dysole's underdogs to stop scoring fast though, as the existing 5 point gap could prove to be a lot.

Chris Perkins and vegie dad have 7 and 8 points, and I believe they are eliminated because they don't have enough unique points remaining to pass various people.
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  #258  
Old March 21st, 2022, 09:33 AM
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Strategy

Yeah I'm thinking the all upset strategy or closer to it is something that is gonna put you decently high up in the standings, but you're almost never going to win. We'll see if I deviate from it next year; since I don't pay attention to actual teams and just go off my spreadsheet numbers and don't think about it too hard odds are that might not be the case.

~Dysole, admittedly doing well for paying basically zero attention to NCAA basketball
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  #259  
Old March 22nd, 2022, 01:50 PM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

I think that's a fair assessment of the upset strategy. You reduce the variance of your score by quite a bit by having so many teams. Other strategies take more risk and may pick a few high cost teams that do poorly, but the odds of at least one person getting lucky and outperforming you is high. The underdogs have a fairly standard number of wins, probably somewhere around 15. They can skew either way by a few, but it's hard for them to roll high in the way other builds can. Yodaking's strategy of all underdogs and then the number one overall seed was very interesting.
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  #260  
Old March 22nd, 2022, 04:38 PM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Thanks again for letting me run 2 team ideas, I'm really interested in seeing how each one plays out. This year in particular I felt like their weren't any real dominate teams at the top and it could lead to some lower seed making a deep run. So I wanted to try and take a bunch of lower seeded teams I felt had a chance at getting a few wins. I included one favorite with that roster in hopes that one team made the finals and gave me a bunch of points to pad my point total. But that strategy runs the risk of having most of your team eliminated on the first weekend too. So I wanted to approach the 'no dominate top seeds' idea in a different way and take a bunch of 3-5 seeds as they are that next tier of teams that could take advantage of weakness at the top 2 spots for a final four run. Got a little lucky with some of my underdogs so that team is looking like it has a chance. The other team took a hit with one 5 and a pair of 3 seeds exiting earlier than I expected. I could still end up with two teams in the finals though from that team, so it has a chance as well.
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  #261  
Old March 26th, 2022, 10:19 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Update:
Dysole 18
Yodaking 2 17
kevindola 16
vegietarian18 15
vegie mom 15
superfrog 13
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 10
vegie dad 8

I believe it's a 4 man race now. Only Dysole, Yodaking 2, kevindola, and vegie mom have paths to victory. All four have Miami, so Miami's performance is irrelevant to all four of them.

Saint Peter's continuing their run keeps Dysole in the driver's seat. Dysole still holds a one game lead. Yodaking 2 is close behind, trailing by only 1 game, but lost Gonzaga since the last update. Yoda and Dysole both have Miami and North Carolina, so the Dysole vs. Yodaking battle all comes down to if Houston can win at least one more game than Saint Peter's.

Kevindola is two games behind Dysole. Kevindola has no UNC and no Saint Peter's, so Dysole is guaranteed at least one point on kevindola via the Midwest regional final. Kevindola does have Villanova and Kansas, but time for points is running out. kevindola needs Villanova and Kansas combined to win 3 more games than the winner of UNC/Saint Peter's wins. Kansas and Villanova only have the potential to win 4 more games total, so he needs them to go 3/4 for Saint Peter's/UNC to be eliminated as soon as possible.

vegie mom has a very thin path to victory, but it exists. She shares UNC and Miami with Dysole, and has Kansas. If Kansas wins the title and Saint Peter's loses to UNC, she'll make up the three points on Dysole and score 1 on kevin. She has alternate specific scenarios surrounding the result of the Villanova/Houston game, which will make either kevin or Yodaking more of a threat.
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  #262  
Old March 26th, 2022, 04:33 PM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

I'm cheering for St. Pete's to win it all now, so I guess I'm rooting for Dysole. Would be a great story if it happens.
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  #263  
Old March 28th, 2022, 12:18 AM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

With Houston's defeat, Yodaking was eliminated from first place contention as he cannot score any points that Dysole cannot. Scenarios are now very small. Kevindola is guaranteed at least one more point, by having both Kansas and Villanova.

Dysole 19
Yodaking 2 18
kevindola 18
vegie mom 17
vegietarian18 16
superfrog 14
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 11
vegie dad 8

If Kansas beats North Carolina in championship game, vegie mom wins.

If North Carolina wins the championship game, regardless of opponent, Dysole wins.

In all other scenarios, kevindola wins.
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  #264  
Old April 3rd, 2022, 01:40 PM
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball

Dysole 20
vegie mom 19
Yodaking 2 19
kevindola 19
vegietarian18 17
superfrog 15
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 11
vegie dad 8

Standing update. Only two scenarios remain. If Kansas wins, vegie mom gains her 20th point, winning tiebreaker over Dysole via having the national champion, and tiebreaker over kevindola via having national runner-up. If UNC wins, Dysole hangs on with a 1 point win.
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