Heroscape matchup calculator (10/2020 update) - Page 2

mathguy · #13 May 14th, 2006, 07:55 PM

Thanks. I'm glad it is getting use.
Perhaps this thread should be moved over to "Software", now that that new category is available. Mods?

netherspirit · #14 May 24th, 2006, 11:52 AM

Moved this to software, I went there looking for it, but it wasn't there. I think it makes more sense to have it here.

~~reapersaurus~~ · #15 May 24th, 2006, 01:13 PM

Thanks so much (again) for this program, Mathguy - it rocks.
Anyone who hasn't seen this, should go - NOW - and try out this fantastic HS resource.

mathguy · #16 May 26th, 2006, 08:05 PM

Thanks Nether for relocating this thread to the proper category.
You're welcome Reaper. And I'm happy it's getting use. It's perfect for discussions such as the "which is better, more life or more defense" discussion going on in another thread. (The answer of course is "it depends"

.)

bobofett · #17 May 26th, 2006, 08:28 PM

Wow i have no clue what i'm on with this software i don't understand the numbers. PLEASE HELP ME.

mathguy · #18 May 28th, 2006, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobofett

Wow i have no clue what i'm on with this software i don't understand the numbers. PLEASE HELP ME.

By "numbers", I assume you mean the numbers in the returned results? (I assume this because I think the input numbers are pretty self-explanatory.)
Did you try the [Detail instructions] link that was at the top of the page?
I just added more detailed explanations to that page, including an example image. I also added another link, [Meaning of returned results] to make it more obvious where to get help.
Or, if that doesn't help, maybe you can just ask which of the numbers in the following example image doesn't make sense.

Most people only care about the Win% numbers.

bobofett · #19 May 29th, 2006, 01:12 AM

I just did guilty against charos and guilty had a 0.00% chance of victory.

~~Jason~~ · #20 May 29th, 2006, 01:16 AM

It's impossible to have an actual 0% chance. (Unless it is an Arrow Grut vs a GNator on a totally flat map) Heck under perfect conditions guilty could kill Charod in 1 turn

bobofett · #21 May 29th, 2006, 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason

It's impossible to have an actual 0% chance. (Unless it is an Arrow Grut vs a GNator on a totally flat map) Heck under perfect conditions guilty could kill Charod in 1 turn

Try it yourself on the calculator. Oh and how could mcreech kill charos in one turn unless he had a mad height advantage. 612 levels higher than charos. OWNED

bobofett · #22 May 29th, 2006, 02:17 AM

Now that i think about it mcreech could kill charos if he went first every round and started off 7 spaces away from charos.

5 move can't catch 7 range so on a huge flat board mcreech could hit and run and there would be no way for charos to catch him(in real time charos would be about 6 feet away from mcreech while they are running) it would take a long time for mcreech to actually kill charos though.

~~Jason~~ · #23 May 29th, 2006, 02:55 AM

*McCreech + extreme Height advantage + Standing on a +1 Attack Glyph. This would give him 2 attacks of 5. He could inflict a max of 10 wounds which would kill Charos in 1 turn

Even on flat ground he could kill Charos, it would just take more than 1 turn.

-Turn 1 he rolls 4 skulls and Charos rolls all blanks then misses with his attack.

-Turn 2 he rolls 4 skulls and Charos rolls all blanks then misses with his attack

-Turn 3 Guilty merely inflicts 1 wound and Kills Charos

The calculator is wrong if it says McCreech cannot kill Charos. Obviously I would be betting my money on Charos, but if they fought enough times McCreech would win some of them

mathguy · #24 May 29th, 2006, 11:47 AM

I see I am going to have to highlight the "disclaimer" more. The following is at the top of the matchup calculator page now.

Remember, it is up to the user to use this calculator wisely. This calculator does not take into account of range or movement. So all battles are either melee vs melee or range vs range. A better way of thinking of it is you are assuming both sides get to use the attacks and abilities that you give them. You must interpret the results appropriately. Furthermore, it doesn't make sense to matchup certain abilities. For example, the Ullar Rifle special is only good for ranged duels, so it doesn't make sense to match that against say melee figures.

So for the McCreech stats vs Charos stats, since you give Charos 5 attack and Counterstrike, then Charos gets to use his attack and counterstrike. You can imagine McCreech would have a very low probability of winning.

And remember, the decimals are rounded to 3 decimal places. So 0.000% is not the same as 0%. A mathematical subtlety perhaps. 0.000% means a number rounded to 0 in 3 decimal places, so the number is < 0.0005%. In fact, if I redid the program to display more decimal places, it turns out McCreech in this melee scenario has 0.0001% win chance.

If you want to know how McCreech could do if he gets a free turn at Charos while Charos flies in, you could reason that the best that could possibly happen is if McCreech rolls 2 skulls twice and Charos whiffs on defense, knocking Charos down to 5 life at the beginning of the ensuing melee. In this case, using the Matchup Calculator, McCreech would have an ensuing win probability of 0.053%. Or you could say, maybe McCreech should chance the disengage so as to avoid the counterstrike. Well, then take away the counterstrike ability of Charos to simulate the best that McCreech could do if he always succeeds in disengaging without a wound. In this fantasy scenario, McCreech's ensuing win probability goes up to 0.159% (using the Matchup Calculator).

The conclusion is that with flat terrain and no glyphs, McCreech's win chances are less than 0.16%. (Probably much less.)

It is tough to take into account of terrain, because one can come up with crazy stuff. Here is one: make a board where Charos has no place to fly to except where he is standing. That is, the only level consecutive two hexes within his movement range is where he is. (How did he get there? Perhaps he was summoned? Or without summoning, McCreech could be standing on the only level-two-hex location that Charos used to get where Charos is.) In that case, McCreech would have a 100% of winning. Hmmm, this could have been made into a brain teaser. Show a picture of this funny terrain with McCreech next to Charos with both at full Life, and ask the question: "If it is McCreech's turn to move, how can McCreech guarantee victory?". The answer is "Disengage to the only 'escape route' for Charos" because McCreech can withstand 1 possible wound from the disengage.