The Book of Khosumet the Darklord

[bee]

I'm sorry, I wasn't meaning to imply mutual exclusivity, I merely wanted to put him in perspective. The Anubian Wolves are one of my favorite squads in the game, but you have to treat them as though they will never hit their 20 (or 19 with Khosumet), or else you will be severely disappointed. I draft Khosumet most every time, mostly for aesthetic reasons; the master strategist and tactician in me battles with the obsessive compulsive theme-nazi self, and I tend to draft "weaker" units because I like them better, and then analyze how to maximize their potential. Oh well.

(That is why I operate under the +2.39 average. There are some really good tables showing how certain you can be that the wolves will hit a 20. (See Elstree's posts on second page) If you use them often enough, they will eventually come through, yes, but for most of the game that you've just played, those extra attack dice weren't there. It's like standard deviation in a science class!

*EDIT*

As I see it, whether or not he's worth it depends on the number of turns you get with the wolves, right? The longer you play, odds are the more 20's you hit. So you just need to put a lot of turns on the wolves, however many squads you have. Focus on keeping them alive longest, and pick and choose to attack when you make it big. That way, if they stay alive, they'll get another chance to really tear your enemy a new one. Personally, I like using them with movement blocking characters (rats, knights, gladiatrons), so I can close in and kill my targets, and not be in too much danger from counter attacks until I hit another decent roll. If I roll low, I gang up on one lonely straggler, and bide my time until later.

[Sisyphus]

Originally Posted by bee

I'm sorry, I wasn't meaning to imply mutual exclusivity, I merely wanted to put him in perspective. The Anubian Wolves are one of my favorite squads in the game, but you have to treat them as though they will never hit their 20 (or 19 with Khosumet), or else you will be severely disappointed. I draft Khosumet most every time, mostly for aesthetic reasons; the master strategist and tactician in me battles with the obsessive compulsive theme-nazi self, and I tend to draft "weaker" units because I like them better, and then analyze how to maximize their potential. Oh well.

(That is why I operate under the +2.39 average. There are some really good tables showing how certain you can be that the wolves will hit a 20. (See Elstree's posts on second page) If you use them often enough, they will eventually come through, yes, but for most of the game that you've just played, those extra attack dice weren't there. It's like standard deviation in a science class!

OK, you are trying to compare Khosumet's bonus to height advantage(and taelord...). If something is better than some something that is good, then you have proved it is good. If something is worse than something is not good, you have proved that it is not good. Having height advantage is awesome but Khosumet's average bonus isn't as good as having height advantage. This says nothing about whether Khosumet's bonus is "worth it."

You are also using the average bonus to describe Khosumet's worth which is fine except it is just that you are losing some information. I have been using a 25% chance of getting what is equivalent(or better) to height advantage to describe Khosumet's value. Again +1 attack is awesome and Khosumet will give it to you 25% of the time.

Originally Posted by bee

As I see it, whether or not he's worth it depends on the number of turns you get with the wolves, right? The longer you play, odds are the more 20's you hit. So you just need to put a lot of turns on the wolves, however many squads you have. Focus on keeping them alive longest, and pick and choose to attack when you make it big. That way, if they stay alive, they'll get another chance to really tear your enemy a new one. Personally, I like using them with movement blocking characters (rats, knights, gladiatrons), so I can close in and kill my targets, and not be in too much danger from counter attacks until I hit another decent roll. If I roll low, I gang up on one lonely straggler, and bide my time until later.

Yep the more wolves, and the more turns you take with them the better Khosumet is. And when I draft wolves, I plan on taking many turns with them.

[Kepler]

Originally Posted by Sisyphus

Unleashed Fury Enhancement is statistically equivalent to saying a roll of 1 is equal to a roll of 20 over a large(infinite) number of rolls. The problem is that we are trying to find out how much Khosumet helps the Anubian Wolves over a finite not infinite number of rolls.

If you make Unleashed Fury Enhancement change 1s to 20s there is no difference between having and not having Khosumet with the Anubian wolves unless you roll a 1 for Unleashed Fury sometime during the game. Let's say you expect to take 9 turns of attacking with your Anubian Wolves. The chance of your version of Khosumet making any difference at all during the game is only 1 - 0.95^9 ~= 37%. Using the real version of Khosumet, Unleashed Fury Enhancement has a 1 - 0.75^9 ~=92% chance of boosting the Wolves at least once during the game. The real version boosts Wolves a little bit often and the 1s to 20s version boosts Wolves by a large amount(+8 attack) rarely. It is better to have a small yet relatively reliable boost especially when that boost is equivalent to having Finn adjacent to all your attacking Anubian Wolves.

Before the die is rolled neither wording of the power gives an advantage over the other. The probabilities are the same.

You are correct the actual results will vary significantly bewteen the two wordings in the short run, but until the dice are rolled it is impossible to say which wording would give better results.

[bee]

I guess we're being somewhat vague as to what we're actually arguing here.
My main tenet is that, in determining whether or not Khosumet is worth his point cost, it is illogical to take into account numbers 2-18 on the die roll, as statistically they are not altered. (we agree on that last part, right? )

Yes, in any specific case Khosumet may (or may not) have affected it, but the chance (and long range average outcome) of hitting that tier was still identical. Therefore I hold that those ranges are not relevant to his point value.

[Metaknight]

I say Khosemet is worth his costs just because you can't roll a one with Unleashed fury which would kill an Anubian Wolf.

[Sisyphus]

Originally Posted by Kepler

Before the die is rolled neither wording of the power gives an advantage over the other. The probabilities are the same.

You are correct the actual results will vary significantly bewteen the two wordings in the short run, but until the dice are rolled it is impossible to say which wording would give better results.

That is my entire point. The actual results will vary significantly between the two wordings in the short run. The actual wording WILL give you better results MOST games. The 1s to 20s version WILL give you the much better results FEW games. Again this is compared to not having Khosumet in your army at all. You don't know until the dice are rolled which version will give better results but neither do you know until the dice are rolled if Jotun will defeat a squad of Venoc Vipers.

[bee]

May I put it this way?
There is no gravity of luck. Low numbers are not "more likely" than high.

Originally Posted by Please test my logic. I

• A roll of 16 is equivalent to a roll of 3 in the number of times they are rolled, correct?[list:9fad35fecc]
• They both have a probability of 5% each.

[*]If you want to roll more attack dice, you want more chances to hit the higher tiers.

• If numbers 7, 9, and 15 give you the same result, there is a 15% chance to get that result. If 16 also gave it, it would be 20%.

[*]But when you add 1 to the die roll, you also subtract 1 chance to hit each tier, by adding it to the next tier.

• Number 1 no longer hits tier one (death), as number 15 no longer hits tier four (+3).

[*]Therefore: (and please check my logic)

• it doesn't matter where the values are located, only how many of them yield any desired result.
• The desired results whose probability does not change will occur an equal percentage of the time as before
  
• No extra attack dice are gained for these, because you lose 1 chance to hit each of them.

[/list:u:9fad35fecc]

Now my logic got fuzzy for these, and I agreed with you for a while because I thought:

"What if I don't roll any 19's or 20's? Then I still gain more attack dice from my first tier being bumped up to tier two."

But there are two problems.

Originally Posted by In answer, I

1. First, 1's and 2's just aren't more likely. It's an unreal scenario.
   
2. But that aside, tier one then goes to tier two, but two loses 1 chance to three, and three 1 chance to four, and four 1 to five. Tier five gains 1 chance, but only because we weren't counting 19's to begin with!
   [list:9fad35fecc]
3. Finally, if you count 19's, then tier five still loses 1 chance to tier 6, and statistically the two models are proven identical in a random environment (such as the one we live in). Any "short run" advantages are illusory, as the chance to hit that result was identical, it just happened to come up in that particular way.

[/list:9fad35fecc]

So that's where I sit for now. I don't think there is any cause to look at anything but the wolven death rate and their "sweet-awesome" rate in how Khosumet affects the Anubians.

p.s. I hope to be as inoffensive as possible in this friendly argument. I've taken years of classes in this area, but it was years ago, and I am doing my best.

[MechaBeast]

Im wondering if the new wolves in wave 8 will have "darklord" bonding!!!...wait...that wont help anything...um yeah...I'll...just be going now

[Hero Hot Hatch]

This is a repost from a block thread:

I figure why not get the Heroes of Barrenspur with Me-Burq-Sa to combine with my Marros and give them a mounted unit, Sir Denrick to combine with my knights, and give them a leader, and Khosumet to actually lead my wolves. The Anubian Wolves that come with the minutemen and the wolves that will come in wave 8 with the militia. In that case, I will have 6 wolves led by Khosumet, but Khosumet looks fragile leading those Anubian Wolves. Those other guys weigh at least 80 lbs more than Khosumet. I was expecting an imposing figure in Khosumet, but it looks like a kicker next to a linebacker when placed next to the anubian wolves. I guess that I'm just making conversation, but they have the same height value.

[Revdyer]

You do have to consider that in history, story, and legend, sometimes the little guys are the fiercest fighters.

[Snotwalker 8000]

Originally Posted by MechaBeast

Im wondering if the new wolves in wave 8 will have "darklord" bonding!!!...wait...that wont help anything...um yeah...I'll...just be going now

Errrr..... um..... yes.

UNLESS, the new wolves have darklord bonding AND another power that can be boosted by Kho's special Unleahed Fury +1 to rolls.

OR, if the new wolves have bonding PLUS provide a defensive screen / defense boost for Khosumet.

OR, if the new wolves have bonding and a similar power to the Nagrubs where Kho can lifedrain one of them to remove any wound markers....

OR, if they just errata Khosumet and give him 6 defense instead of a paltry 3 so as to actually have a "sturdy sheild" as mentioned in his bio...

[Hero Hot Hatch]

Originally Posted by Revdyer

You do have to consider that in history, story, and legend, sometimes the little guys are the fiercest fighters.

Yeah. My wife is small, but can be fierce sometimes. She gets even madder when I call her my little chiguagua, and a chiguagua can take on an alligator if you let it. You are right. Never understimate the power of lightness and speed. It's interesting how within weeks of becoming a heroscaper I'm already seeing my small figures as real things. Am I going crazy too now in addition to broke.