Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

[IAmBatman]

Originally Posted by Myth26

Not to burst bubbles, but it is trending towards about 4.3k with a week left. 300 over 5 or 6 days feels doable, but I'm not totally sure, in stark contrast to the first week.

I believe this is more accurate than the OP.

[mee likey]

I think it is clear that a simple linear regression model is not fitting. There are too many factors in play. We are hoping for a big bump (and a miracle) in the last leg, but who knows? But perhaps the OP is worried that putting "should not fund" might be pessimistic and turn some folks off of the campaign, which I would also worry about. Maybe just remove that wording? I still keep coming back to this thread just to see the updated data points, so maybe that's enough. Thank you for keeping it updated, either way, Sir Artorius.

[EricTheGreat1999]

Originally Posted by mee likey

I think it is clear that a simple linear regression model is not fitting. There are too many factors in play. We are hoping for a big bump (and a miracle) in the last leg, but who knows? But perhaps the OP is worried that putting "should not fund" might be pessimistic and turn some folks off of the campaign, which I would also worry about. Maybe just remove that wording? I still keep coming back to this thread just to see the updated data points, so maybe that's enough. Thank you for keeping it updated, either way, Sir Artorius.

OP hasn't updated the wording of the post since October 2nd, so of course it won't be reflecting current trends.

Regarding the actual numbers themselves, yesterday was a good day, with an updated campaign page, and that's when we got 40 backers in a full day. These numbers aren't sustainable until the final week, an optimistic 100 backers a day from here on out and we'd still need 471 backers a day for the final week, which is pretty nuts.

[brak88]

Originally Posted by EricTheGreat1999

OP hasn't updated the wording of the post since October 2nd, so of course it won't be reflecting current trends.

Regarding the actual numbers themselves, yesterday was a good day, with an updated campaign page, and that's when we got 40 backers in a full day. These numbers aren't sustainable until the final week, an optimistic 100 backers a day from here on out and we'd still need 471 backers a day, which is pretty nuts.

There was a tiny bit of a jump compared to the last week or so in daily sales, but yeah, we didn't get any extra stretch goals or bonus items revealed, which I feel we really need at this point to garner some real boosts.

I notice a lot less commenting about lack of color and lack of historical units and etc. I think the major thing at this point is figuring out a way to get new people interested and how to get people into the $250 hurdle.

At this point, it's going to take more than page clarity to hit the extra 5+K and I personally feel bad about some people willing to get close to $2K in set purchases in order to fund this, even though we're all adults here haha.

[EricTheGreat1999]

Originally Posted by brak88

There was a tiny bit of a jump compared to the last week or so in daily sales, but yeah, we didn't get any extra stretch goals or bonus items revealed, which I feel we really need at this point to garner some real boosts.

My experience though with backing other crowdfunded board games is that further stretch goals are only revealed once the initial stretch goals are being unlocked at a rapid pace, in order to keep momentum. As it currently stands, we're barely scrapping by towards the minimum required for funding this project, we'll never get to unlock the current stretch goals.

[brak88]

Originally Posted by EricTheGreat1999

My experience though with backing other crowdfunded board games is that further stretch goals are only revealed once the initial stretch goals are being unlocked at a rapid pace, in order to keep momentum. As it currently stands, we're barely scrapping by towards the minimum required for funding this project, we'll never get to unlock the current stretch goals.

Yeah, I feel the posting everything for clarity and honesty for what you're getting at the $250 is biting them and not getting people to click back multiple times and become more and more interested and saying screw it, I'll get it.

The set it and forget it aspect of the campaign page is not helping. The page would've still stayed the same if it wasn't for so much backlash. I just don't know what else can be done at this point without a major change. The ghost rider campaign is showing that impossible to achieve stretch goals is turning people away.

[rudyvalentine]

Originally Posted by brak88

Yeah, I feel the posting everything for clarity and honesty for what you're getting at the $250 is biting them and not getting people to click back multiple times and become more and more interested and saying screw it, I'll get it.

The set it and forget it aspect of the campaign page is not helping. The page would've still stayed the same if it wasn't for so much backlash. I just don't know what else can be done at this point without a major change. The ghost rider campaign is showing that impossible to achieve stretch goals is turning people away.

Agreed. At this point it seems like those stretch goals need to be part of the package to help this be viable because dangling them out so far beyond what looks reasonable is having a negative morale effect.

Wish they would have added one in every two weeks to keep the excitement and buzz up. Then, if you hit the funding goal, announce a stretch goal for the next milestone. Don’t just dump it all on day one and let it sit there like a big middle finger.

[brak88]

I'm not saying that Avalon Hill or the war council is doing bad or being negative for negative sakes or anything. I'm trying to throw realistic ideas into the wind of what hasn't been working, and what needs to be targeted and accomplished in order to get to funding.

It's just frustrating that it's taken almost half of the campaign to do the page updates. Honestly, it would've been unexpected if there was a 500 unit sold boost within a day of the page update happening, and that'd still not get us all that close to even halfway.

And with multiple mentions from the AH team of how slow and hard it is to get Hasbro to allow and clear those changes, if they started this very minute on any other ideas or compromises to increase sales, by the time they're implemented there's only a few days left.

The only thing at this point that can give me any realistic hope for this campaign is seeing the ghost rider figure pop into funding.

[IAmBatman]

One thing I'd love to see them do (not saying they will, or that it's a realistic expectation, but it'd be great to see) is to put up micro-goals for folks on the page. i.e. If we hit X number of backers by Y time, Z stretch goal will be unlocked, whether that's something as simple as a card reveal or even an alteration to how their main stretch goals work (which is something they should do if feasible, IMO).

[brak88]

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

One thing I'd love to see them do (not saying they will, or that it's a realistic expectation, but it'd be great to see) is to put up micro-goals for folks on the page. i.e. If we hit X number of backers by Y time, Z stretch goal will be unlocked, whether that's something as simple as a card reveal or even an alteration to how their main stretch goals work (which is something they should do if feasible, IMO).

Yeah, something to get on the fence people to click back time and again and eventually pulling the trigger. On the fence buyers are a better demographic to market vs. all new players. It's been too easy for so many to be like "eh, because of reasons A, B, C, and/or D, this isn't for me at this price." And never looking again.

I appreciate the page update, but it's just the beginning of what needs to be done.

[S1R_ART0R1US]

Originally Posted by William099

Does the “should trend” estimate on the op of this thread still accurately define the situation?

I don't think it does and am updating accordingly. It's something that I'll update about weekly as we see trends. I've seen enough of the current trend to change for sure. I think the final week will show the most and that's hard to predict. As of today, I see three clear linear regimes: the first few days of backing at ~600/day, the next week or so at ~250/day, and the current rate of the last week or so at ~40/day.

Ideally I'd fit each one separately, but Google Sheets doesn't like plotting series with different arrays for the X-axis.

[rudyvalentine]

Not directing my comments at any one in particular either or blaming the folks at AH or here as designers/play testers. Just observations of many opportunities for improvement as it relates to the campaign itself.

I was also joking about the stretch goals being a middle finger, but it is super discouraging seeing how cool they look and having no real hope of ever unlocking any of them. Just hoping to hit the funding goal at this point, which was the main idea of my suggestion. Stretch goals when you’re not even close to a funding goal don’t have that burst of excitement you want them to that leads to more support and more buzz.