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  #685  
Old April 27th, 2020, 09:27 PM
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Re: Diplomacy

The board position looks pretty stable. If there was a clear breakthrough I don't see it. SEV looks soft, but the French fleets are so far east that a play for a solo would have been risky.

With builds, though, and if France had left BRE open, then I think there's probably a French solo available. Kinseth's tactics (and overall play) are stronger than mine, so I would defer to him. Certainly if play had been slightly different the last season or two, it would be more clear. Maybe with a French fleet still in ION. Would England have responded with very aggressive builds, such as F/F/F? What would that have meant? I don't know.

It's always exciting to see a solo. In this case, I was watching the press. I know that this 2-way draw was not the product of "carebear" play, with reckless extensions of trust by either party. It's definitely not a shared win, because that's not a thing, but it is an even rarer bird, which is a 2-way draw. And a 2-way EF draw, too, which is very unusual!

As for scorp's baseball analogy, here's the thing: you only win the game with a home run. "Getting on base" is not winning. I expect different levels of skill in any Dip game. I don't get frustrated by people playing badly. I do, however, get frustrated by people not playing to win. As opposed to playing to draw. Which, I believe, Kinseth thought I would say (more or less) if I was asked this question, which is probably why he asked me.

That said, it seemed to me like everyone was playing to win in this game. And I was reading press.

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  #686  
Old April 27th, 2020, 09:46 PM
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinseth View Post
I don't think it was charitable, I think KD was truly fearful. I just think it was there and KD didn't see it. But I recognize we are also viewing it as hindsight 20/20 in a world where you didn't attack Trieste. (which is what actually happened )

Post game scrutiny is part of the game, go back and read some of what @Ranior was giving me in previous games.

I rather enjoy it though, who knew I'd like talking this much about a game that I just got by butt kicked in

Haha well as long as the validity of the 2 way draw isn't called into question then I am fine. Just didn't know if I was seen as being undeserving of the final result, but glad that we got that sorted out. ^_^


I have been looking back at the final couple of maps trying to see what the worst reasonable outcome for me would have been, and how I might have countered it. Purely because it is fun to look back and speculate:


Order time for Fall 1911. I keep all my moves as is. We'll say France makes these moves instead:


F ION s A ALB - GRE
GRE - ALB


As you suggested, leaving that ION fleet free to go back and defend the Iberian territories.


A BRE - GAS
A PIC - BUR


To help defend German territories like Munich as much as possible.


Then building fleets in Brest and Marseilles, and an army in Paris.


--------


His Gascony Army would march into Spain/Portugal area I imagine to help run coastal defense. Paris army probably marches to Picardy for similar reasons.


Anyway, instead of trying to convoy my Denmark army all the way over to help defend RUM and SEV, I probably do something like this:




Spoiler Alert!



It would take all of his efforts not to lose Belgium, Munich, or Trieste in this scenario, and then in the Fall I would have an extra army to pound on his doorstep. Meanwhile with four fleets in the water that would be aggressive toward Western Europe, I would hold a slight naval advantage over his armada composed of his ION ship and the BRE and MAR borne navies.



Of course it's also possible he bounces me out of Bohemia in the Fall of 1911 anyway. So many possibilities to ruminate on. ^_^



-scorp

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  #687  
Old April 27th, 2020, 10:10 PM
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dad_Scaper View Post
As for scorp's baseball analogy, here's the thing: you only win the game with a home run. "Getting on base" is not winning. I expect different levels of skill in any Dip game. I don't get frustrated by people playing badly. I do, however, get frustrated by people not playing to win. As opposed to playing to draw. Which, I believe, Kinseth thought I would say (more or less) if I was asked this question, which is probably why he asked me.

That said, it seemed to me like everyone was playing to win in this game. And I was reading press.

Glad you can confirm that France and I were both playing to win here.


My baseball analogy may have been wonky here. In any case though, I play for the best outcome possible that doesn't put me at risk me losing the game altogether. I had opportunities to stab France which might have helped me solo if the stars aligned correctly, but I always felt they were more likely to end in a loss, (or a wider draw.) Diplomacy tournaments award points based on solos vs number of players in a draw for this very reason: A 2 player draw is worse than a solo, but much better than a loss.


Essentially, I was saying that if one player plays six games and all of them end in 2 or 3 way draws, that player is probably a more skillful diplomat than the player who played six games, attained one solo win, a four way draw, and four losses. I think most variants of tournament scoring would support this. This is what I was meaning in terms of ambition vs recklessness. ^



-scorp

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  #688  
Old April 28th, 2020, 12:19 AM
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Re: Diplomacy

A great scorp breakdown! As expected from him.


Turkey and I (Russia) were never allies. I tried to start one early on and feed him intel about Austria, turned out they were already working together.

Near endgame us three were forced to work together, but then I was suspicious that they were going to turn on me based on previous encounters, and I warned France and Italy of this. Austria found out via France (as Italy hadn't gave away any kind of that info as far as I was aware at that time) and it all backfired.
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  #689  
Old April 28th, 2020, 12:27 AM
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Re: Diplomacy

This politic stuff has always been a bit over my head (even in CoN) but I did enjoy this overall. I'm iffy right now if I want to take another crack at it.
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  #690  
Old April 28th, 2020, 09:00 AM
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpiusx View Post

Essentially, I was saying that if one player plays six games and all of them end in 2 or 3 way draws, that player is probably a more skillful diplomat than the player who played six games, attained one solo win, a four way draw, and four losses. I think most variants of tournament scoring would support this. This is what I was meaning in terms of ambition vs recklessness. ^

-scorp
This is largely true. My favorite scoring system for Diplomacy tournaments is C-Diplo which awards 100 points for every game. If there is a solo victor, they get the full 100 points and nobody else scores anything. Otherwise the points are awarded by this simple system:

1 point for participating
1 point per supply center you have at the end
38 bonus points to whomever has the most supply centers
14 bonus points to whomever has the 2nd most supply centers
7 bonus points to whomever has the 3rd most supply centers

The bonus points are added and split if players share the positions.

I really love this system as I find it gives really good weighting to the types of things I'd like to see in a game of Diplomacy. It's simple yet encourages the right sorts of things that make Diplomacy so sublime.

In this specific game, it sounds like scorp and kd tied with 17 centers each. That would score them each 39 points (1 participation + 17 centers + (38+14)/2 bonus points) while the other powers would score 2.4 points each (1 participation + 0 centers + 7/5 bonus points).

39 points is pretty good and a nice result surely, but it's no 100. Was the situation ever favorable enough for either of you to try for that 100 and risk your 39? Hard to say, although I think I lean towards siding with Kinseth that it sounds like kd really had a good chance given Austria's stated diplomatic stance. If I felt at all likely that Austria would help me solo at the expense of the English, I'm probably going to try for the solo. But that may partially just be Kinseth and I inherently valuing the solo a bit more than what kd or scorp would, and I fully agree it's not clear there was a sure solo for either side here, it would have been a risk for either of them to go for it.

But basically when a solo is roughly 2.5 times better an outcome....yeah I'm probably pushing for that solo win from the position I see here.

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  #691  
Old April 28th, 2020, 09:57 AM
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Kinseth Kinseth is offline
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpiusx View Post
Essentially, I was saying that if one player plays six games and all of them end in 2 or 3 way draws, that player is probably a more skillful diplomat than the player who played six games, attained one solo win, a four way draw, and four losses. I think most variants of tournament scoring would support this. This is what I was meaning in terms of ambition vs recklessness. ^
-scorp
I don't think ambition and recklessness go hand in hand. Going for a Solo win is more of a calculated risk than recklessness. Also, going for a late game Solo win and failing often results in a 3-4 way draw and not an elimination.

I played for 15+ years at a site called Dip2000.com, similar to the site we play on(Except everyones names are public in a game). Best streak I had in 6 games was.
  • 4 Way Draw
  • 3 Way Draw
  • Solo
  • 2 way Draw
  • Solo
  • 2 way Draw

My worst 6 game streak was
  • Eliminated
  • Eliminated
  • 2 way draw
  • 4 way draw
  • 3 way draw
  • Eliminated

I would think you probably need a larger sample size than six games, if you compared one of my streaks vs another, you might consider me two completely different players.

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

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Last edited by Kinseth; April 28th, 2020 at 10:26 AM.
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  #692  
Old April 28th, 2020, 10:47 AM
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Kinseth Kinseth is offline
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranior View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpiusx View Post

Essentially, I was saying that if one player plays six games and all of them end in 2 or 3 way draws, that player is probably a more skillful diplomat than the player who played six games, attained one solo win, a four way draw, and four losses. I think most variants of tournament scoring would support this. This is what I was meaning in terms of ambition vs recklessness. ^

-scorp
This is largely true. My favorite scoring system for Diplomacy tournaments is C-Diplo which awards 100 points for every game. If there is a solo victor, they get the full 100 points and nobody else scores anything. Otherwise the points are awarded by this simple system:

1 point for participating
1 point per supply center you have at the end
38 bonus points to whomever has the most supply centers
14 bonus points to whomever has the 2nd most supply centers
7 bonus points to whomever has the 3rd most supply centers

The bonus points are added and split if players share the positions.

I really love this system as I find it gives really good weighting to the types of things I'd like to see in a game of Diplomacy. It's simple yet encourages the right sorts of things that make Diplomacy so sublime.

In this specific game, it sounds like scorp and kd tied with 17 centers each. That would score them each 39 points (1 participation + 17 centers + (38+14)/2 bonus points) while the other powers would score 2.4 points each (1 participation + 0 centers + 7/5 bonus points).

39 points is pretty good and a nice result surely, but it's no 100. Was the situation ever favorable enough for either of you to try for that 100 and risk your 39? Hard to say, although I think I lean towards siding with Kinseth that it sounds like kd really had a good chance given Austria's stated diplomatic stance. If I felt at all likely that Austria would help me solo at the expense of the English, I'm probably going to try for the solo. But that may partially just be Kinseth and I inherently valuing the solo a bit more than what kd or scorp would, and I fully agree it's not clear there was a sure solo for either side here, it would have been a risk for either of them to go for it.

But basically when a solo is roughly 2.5 times better an outcome....yeah I'm probably pushing for that solo win from the position I see here.
I would say this is largely true, also if you get serious into diplomacy where you are active on a site that has many players, those groups hold Solo count in high regards. I have seen a stigma towards those who play for 2-way draws(as DS has eluded too.) on such sites. I have felt that stigma too, as I held the record for 2 way draws on the site I played on.

I firmly believe both of you would have gone for the solo if you felt like it was there though, even though I believe the late game board position favored KD, and I think a high chance he likely gets it, there was no sure thing and there came risk. I think it was a well played game of chess between the two of you where neither made a true mistake to give away the game.

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

Looking for a C3V/SOV miniature? Try one of these sites.
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  #693  
Old April 28th, 2020, 10:48 AM
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Re: Diplomacy

and here someone told in game me I was playing Checkers......
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  #694  
Old April 28th, 2020, 10:56 AM
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Re: Diplomacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by kevindola View Post
and here someone told in game me I was playing Checkers......
I wasn't going down without a fight, I was doing what I could to try to survive man!

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

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  #695  
Old April 30th, 2020, 02:59 PM
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Re: Diplomacy

Curious to see if anyone else is going to make an EOG statement. Very interested in hearing other players' perspectives of what went down, and the plans on their end.

-scorp

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  #696  
Old April 30th, 2020, 03:01 PM
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Re: Diplomacy

Kinseth is 3 games behind. I think he told me he'd get to one after golf season
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