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Old February 13th, 2008, 01:08 PM
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Sisyphus Sisyphus is offline
 
Join Date: June 15, 2007
Location: FL - Naples
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Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Here are some handy probability tables for those that are interested. Each table goes from 1 to 10 attack left to right and 0 to 10 defense top to bottom unless otherwise indicated.

Use this information with caution since "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Standard Figures


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.333   0.750   1.208   1.688   2.177   2.672   3.169   3.668   4.167   4.667
2       0.222   0.556   0.958   1.403   1.872   2.354   2.845   3.339   3.837   4.335
3       0.148   0.407   0.750   1.150   1.589   2.052   2.530   3.017   3.510   4.005
4       0.099   0.296   0.580   0.932   1.334   1.770   2.230   2.705   3.189   3.680
5       0.066   0.214   0.444   0.747   1.107   1.511   1.947   2.405   2.878   3.361
6       0.044   0.154   0.337   0.593   0.910   1.278   1.685   2.121   2.579   3.050
7       0.029   0.110   0.254   0.466   0.741   1.071   1.446   1.856   2.294   2.750
8       0.020   0.078   0.190   0.363   0.598   0.889   1.230   1.612   2.026   2.464
9       0.013   0.055   0.141   0.281   0.479   0.733   1.038   1.389   1.776   2.193
10      0.009   0.039   0.105   0.216   0.380   0.599   0.869   1.187   1.546   1.939

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.333   0.583   0.750   0.854   0.917   0.953   0.974   0.986   0.992   0.996
2       0.222   0.444   0.625   0.757   0.847   0.906   0.944   0.967   0.980   0.989
3       0.148   0.333   0.509   0.655   0.766   0.846   0.901   0.938   0.961   0.976
4       0.099   0.247   0.407   0.556   0.679   0.776   0.848   0.899   0.934   0.958
5       0.066   0.181   0.321   0.463   0.592   0.700   0.786   0.851   0.898   0.932
6       0.044   0.132   0.250   0.380   0.507   0.622   0.718   0.795   0.855   0.899
7       0.029   0.095   0.192   0.308   0.429   0.544   0.647   0.734   0.804   0.859
8       0.020   0.068   0.146   0.246   0.358   0.470   0.576   0.670   0.749   0.813
9       0.013   0.049   0.111   0.195   0.295   0.401   0.506   0.603   0.689   0.762
10      0.009   0.035   0.083   0.153   0.241   0.339   0.440   0.538   0.628   0.707



Counter Strike(Samurai, Charos)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average damage inflicted on the attacker due to an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits).  

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.389   0.222   0.125   0.069   0.038   0.021   0.011   0.006   0.003   0.002
3       0.648   0.407   0.250   0.150   0.089   0.052   0.030   0.017   0.010   0.005
4       0.932   0.630   0.414   0.265   0.167   0.103   0.063   0.038   0.023   0.013
5       1.233   0.881   0.611   0.414   0.274   0.178   0.114   0.072   0.045   0.027
6       1.544   1.154   0.837   0.593   0.410   0.278   0.185   0.121   0.079   0.050
7       1.863   1.443   1.088   0.799   0.574   0.404   0.279   0.190   0.127   0.084
8       2.186   1.745   1.357   1.030   0.765   0.556   0.397   0.278   0.192   0.131
9       2.513   2.055   1.641   1.281   0.979   0.733   0.538   0.389   0.276   0.193
10      2.842   2.372   1.938   1.550   1.214   0.932   0.703   0.521   0.380   0.273

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack inflicting at least one wound on the attacker when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.333   0.194   0.111   0.063   0.035   0.019   0.010   0.006   0.003   0.002
3       0.481   0.315   0.199   0.123   0.074   0.044   0.026   0.015   0.009   0.005
4       0.605   0.432   0.296   0.197   0.127   0.081   0.050   0.031   0.019   0.011
5       0.704   0.539   0.395   0.279   0.192   0.128   0.084   0.054   0.034   0.021
6       0.781   0.632   0.490   0.365   0.264   0.186   0.128   0.086   0.057   0.037
7       0.839   0.711   0.577   0.450   0.340   0.250   0.179   0.125   0.086   0.058
8       0.883   0.776   0.654   0.531   0.417   0.318   0.237   0.172   0.123   0.086
9       0.915   0.828   0.720   0.605   0.492   0.389   0.299   0.225   0.166   0.120
10      0.939   0.869   0.777   0.672   0.563   0.459   0.364   0.282   0.214   0.159



Unleashed Fury(Anubian Wolves)


Average Damage:

Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)

This table shows the average damage an Anubian Wolf will cause in an attack before Unleashed Fury is rolled.

                d+      d++     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       1.775   1.975   2.150   2.275   2.475   2.650
1       1.488   1.679   1.850   1.965   2.160   2.333
2       1.236   1.417   1.581   1.680   1.869   2.038
3       1.020   1.188   1.343   1.424   1.604   1.767
4       0.837   0.991   1.136   1.198   1.367   1.522
5       0.683   0.823   0.956   1.000   1.158   1.303
6       0.554   0.681   0.802   0.830   0.975   1.111
7       0.448   0.562   0.671   0.685   0.817   0.942
8       0.362   0.462   0.559   0.563   0.682   0.796
9       0.291   0.379   0.465   0.460   0.567   0.670
10      0.233   0.310   0.385   0.375   0.470   0.562

Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)

This table shows the probability that an attack from an Anubian wolf will cause at least one wound before Unleashed Fury is rolled.  For defending squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

                d+      d++     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       0.862   0.887   0.900   0.931   0.944   0.950
1       0.754   0.787   0.807   0.854   0.875   0.887
2       0.648   0.686   0.713   0.768   0.795   0.813
3       0.550   0.591   0.622   0.679   0.711   0.735
4       0.462   0.504   0.538   0.592   0.628   0.655
5       0.385   0.426   0.462   0.510   0.548   0.578
6       0.318   0.358   0.394   0.435   0.473   0.506
7       0.261   0.300   0.335   0.367   0.405   0.439
8       0.213   0.249   0.283   0.308   0.345   0.378
9       0.173   0.207   0.239   0.256   0.292   0.324
10      0.140   0.171   0.201   0.212   0.246   0.277



Stinger Drain(Marro Stingers)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)

This table shows the average damage a Marro Stinger causes in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled.

        N               d+      d++     Na+     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       1.500   1.475   1.575   1.675   2.000   1.875   2.000   2.125
1       1.208   1.230   1.315   1.399   1.688   1.619   1.728   1.837
2       0.958   1.011   1.081   1.151   1.403   1.380   1.474   1.567
3       0.750   0.820   0.878   0.935   1.150   1.162   1.241   1.321
4       0.580   0.658   0.704   0.751   0.932   0.967   1.033   1.100
5       0.444   0.522   0.559   0.597   0.747   0.796   0.851   0.906
6       0.337   0.410   0.440   0.470   0.593   0.649   0.694   0.740
7       0.254   0.320   0.343   0.366   0.466   0.524   0.561   0.598
8       0.190   0.247   0.266   0.284   0.363   0.420   0.450   0.479
9       0.141   0.190   0.204   0.218   0.281   0.334   0.358   0.381
10      0.105   0.145   0.156   0.167   0.216   0.263   0.282   0.301

Wound Chance:
Code:
Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)

This table shows the probability of a Marro Stinger causing at least one wound in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        N               d+      d++     Na+     a+      a+d+    a+d++
0       0.875   0.734   0.781   0.828   0.938   0.767   0.816   0.864
1       0.750   0.657   0.700   0.743   0.854   0.718   0.764   0.809
2       0.625   0.573   0.610   0.648   0.757   0.655   0.698   0.740
3       0.509   0.488   0.520   0.553   0.655   0.585   0.623   0.662
4       0.407   0.407   0.435   0.463   0.556   0.513   0.547   0.580
5       0.321   0.335   0.358   0.381   0.463   0.441   0.471   0.500
6       0.250   0.271   0.290   0.309   0.380   0.374   0.399   0.425
7       0.192   0.217   0.233   0.248   0.308   0.313   0.334   0.356
8       0.146   0.172   0.184   0.197   0.246   0.258   0.276   0.294
9       0.111   0.135   0.145   0.154   0.195   0.211   0.226   0.241
10      0.083   0.105   0.113   0.120   0.153   0.171   0.183   0.195



Double Strike(Minions of Utgar, Omnicron Snipers)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       1.000   2.000   3.000   4.000   5.000   6.000   7.000   8.000   9.000   10.000
1       0.833   1.750   2.708   3.688   4.677   5.672   6.669   7.668   8.667   9.667
2       0.667   1.500   2.417   3.375   4.354   5.344   6.339   7.336   8.335   9.334
3       0.519   1.269   2.139   3.072   4.037   5.019   6.010   7.005   8.003   9.001
4       0.395   1.062   1.880   2.781   3.728   4.699   5.684   6.676   7.671   8.669
5       0.296   0.881   1.640   2.504   3.427   4.385   5.361   6.348   7.341   8.338
6       0.219   0.724   1.422   2.242   3.137   4.077   5.043   6.024   7.013   8.007
7       0.161   0.591   1.224   1.996   2.859   3.777   4.729   5.702   6.687   7.678
8       0.117   0.478   1.046   1.767   2.593   3.486   4.422   5.385   6.363   7.350
9       0.085   0.384   0.888   1.556   2.341   3.205   4.122   5.072   6.042   7.024
10      0.061   0.306   0.749   1.362   2.103   2.936   3.830   4.765   5.725   6.701
Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits) causing at least one wound.  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
2       0.444   0.694   0.833   0.910   0.951   0.974   0.986   0.993   0.996   0.998
3       0.370   0.620   0.778   0.873   0.928   0.960   0.978   0.988   0.993   0.996
4       0.296   0.543   0.718   0.831   0.901   0.943   0.968   0.982   0.990   0.995
5       0.230   0.469   0.656   0.786   0.870   0.923   0.955   0.974   0.985   0.992
6       0.176   0.401   0.594   0.737   0.836   0.900   0.940   0.965   0.979   0.988
7       0.132   0.338   0.533   0.687   0.797   0.873   0.922   0.953   0.972   0.983
8       0.098   0.283   0.474   0.634   0.756   0.842   0.900   0.938   0.962   0.977
9       0.072   0.234   0.417   0.581   0.712   0.809   0.876   0.922   0.951   0.970
10      0.052   0.192   0.364   0.529   0.667   0.772   0.849   0.902   0.938   0.961



One Shield Defense(Crixus)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack defended by a figure with one shield defense(i.e. Crixus, if the defending figure rolls at least one shield, the most damage it can recieve is one wound).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.333   0.750   1.167   1.563   1.938   2.297   2.646   2.988   3.327   3.663
2       0.222   0.556   0.903   1.229   1.528   1.802   2.058   2.302   2.537   2.767
3       0.148   0.407   0.694   0.970   1.220   1.443   1.644   1.828   1.999   2.162
4       0.099   0.296   0.531   0.765   0.982   1.174   1.343   1.492   1.626   1.748
5       0.066   0.214   0.403   0.603   0.793   0.965   1.116   1.246   1.359   1.459
6       0.044   0.154   0.305   0.473   0.642   0.799   0.938   1.059   1.162   1.250
7       0.029   0.110   0.229   0.370   0.518   0.662   0.794   0.910   1.009   1.093
8       0.020   0.078   0.171   0.288   0.417   0.549   0.674   0.787   0.885   0.969
9       0.013   0.055   0.127   0.223   0.335   0.454   0.571   0.682   0.780   0.866
10      0.009   0.039   0.094   0.172   0.267   0.374   0.483   0.590   0.689   0.776



Gift of the Empress Aura(Einar Imperium/Empress Kiova)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure rerolls all defense die that do not show shields(i.e. Einar Imperium in range of Empress Kiova's aura).   

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.222   0.472   0.667   0.799   0.882   0.932   0.962   0.979   0.988   0.994
2       0.099   0.272   0.458   0.621   0.747   0.837   0.898   0.937   0.962   0.978
3       0.044   0.148   0.293   0.448   0.590   0.709   0.800   0.866   0.913   0.944
4       0.020   0.078   0.177   0.304   0.439   0.567   0.679   0.769   0.838   0.890
5       0.009   0.040   0.103   0.197   0.310   0.432   0.549   0.654   0.742   0.813
6       0.004   0.020   0.058   0.122   0.210   0.314   0.425   0.534   0.633   0.719
7       0.002   0.010   0.032   0.074   0.137   0.220   0.316   0.419   0.520   0.615
8       0.001   0.005   0.017   0.043   0.087   0.149   0.227   0.317   0.413   0.509
9       0.000   0.002   0.009   0.025   0.053   0.097   0.158   0.233   0.318   0.408
10      0.000   0.001   0.005   0.014   0.032   0.062   0.107   0.165   0.237   0.317



Shields of Valor(Sentinels of Jandar)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound in which the defending figure recieves two blocks for every shield rolled(i.e. Seninels of Jandar).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.333   0.500   0.625   0.729   0.813   0.875   0.919   0.949   0.969   0.981
2       0.222   0.333   0.444   0.556   0.656   0.741   0.810   0.863   0.904   0.933
3       0.148   0.222   0.315   0.417   0.516   0.608   0.688   0.757   0.815   0.861
4       0.099   0.148   0.222   0.309   0.398   0.486   0.569   0.646   0.714   0.773
5       0.066   0.099   0.156   0.226   0.302   0.382   0.461   0.538   0.611   0.677
6       0.044   0.066   0.110   0.165   0.227   0.295   0.367   0.440   0.512   0.580
7       0.029   0.044   0.077   0.119   0.169   0.226   0.288   0.354   0.422   0.489
8       0.020   0.029   0.054   0.085   0.124   0.171   0.223   0.281   0.342   0.405
9       0.013   0.020   0.037   0.061   0.091   0.128   0.172   0.221   0.274   0.332
10      0.009   0.013   0.026   0.043   0.066   0.095   0.131   0.171   0.218   0.268



Heroic Defense Aura(Hatamoto Taro with Samurai/Ashigaru)


Average Damage:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack when the defending figure recieves Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar symbols count as shields).

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   1.000   1.500   2.000   2.500   3.000   3.500   4.000   4.500   5.000
1       0.250   0.625   1.063   1.531   2.016   2.508   3.004   3.502   4.001   4.500
2       0.125   0.375   0.719   1.125   1.570   2.039   2.521   3.012   3.506   4.003
3       0.063   0.219   0.469   0.797   1.184   1.611   2.066   2.539   3.023   3.513
4       0.031   0.125   0.297   0.547   0.865   1.238   1.652   2.096   2.559   3.036
5       0.016   0.070   0.184   0.365   0.615   0.927   1.290   1.693   2.126   2.581
6       0.008   0.039   0.111   0.238   0.427   0.677   0.983   1.338   1.732   2.156
7       0.004   0.021   0.066   0.152   0.290   0.483   0.733   1.036   1.384   1.770
8       0.002   0.012   0.039   0.096   0.193   0.338   0.536   0.786   1.085   1.427
9       0.001   0.006   0.023   0.059   0.126   0.232   0.384   0.585   0.835   1.131
10      0.000   0.003   0.013   0.036   0.081   0.156   0.270   0.427   0.631   0.881
Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar Symbols count as shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
0       0.500   0.750   0.875   0.938   0.969   0.984   0.992   0.996   0.998   0.999
1       0.250   0.500   0.688   0.813   0.891   0.938   0.965   0.980   0.989   0.994
2       0.125   0.313   0.500   0.656   0.773   0.855   0.910   0.945   0.967   0.981
3       0.063   0.188   0.344   0.500   0.637   0.746   0.828   0.887   0.927   0.954
4       0.031   0.109   0.227   0.363   0.500   0.623   0.726   0.806   0.867   0.910
5       0.016   0.063   0.145   0.254   0.377   0.500   0.613   0.709   0.788   0.849
6       0.008   0.035   0.090   0.172   0.274   0.387   0.500   0.605   0.696   0.773
7       0.004   0.020   0.055   0.113   0.194   0.291   0.395   0.500   0.598   0.685
8       0.002   0.011   0.033   0.073   0.133   0.212   0.304   0.402   0.500   0.593
9       0.001   0.006   0.019   0.046   0.090   0.151   0.227   0.315   0.407   0.500
10      0.000   0.003   0.011   0.029   0.059   0.105   0.166   0.240   0.324   0.412

Tough(Gorillinators)


Wound Chance:
Code:
Attack/Defense

This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Tough(when defending figure receives one automatic shield).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10
1       0.000   0.167   0.375   0.563   0.708   0.813   0.883   0.928   0.957   0.975
2       0.000   0.111   0.278   0.451   0.604   0.726   0.816   0.880   0.923   0.952
3       0.000   0.074   0.204   0.356   0.506   0.636   0.741   0.821   0.879   0.920
4       0.000   0.049   0.148   0.278   0.417   0.548   0.662   0.755   0.827   0.880

Poison Sting(Sujoah)


Code:
This table shows the average damage caused by Sojoah's Poison Sting Special Attack and the probability that Sojoah's Poison Sting kills a figure by rolling a 20.

        Average Damage Kill Chance
0       2.93750        0.09375
1       2.54167        0.08542
2       2.15972        0.07569
3       1.80556        0.06551
4       1.48765        0.05556
5       1.20988        0.04630
6       0.97257        0.03800
7       0.77366        0.03077
8       0.60966        0.02463
9       0.47635        0.01951
10      0.36932        0.01531


Counter Strike vs. Double Strike


Wound Chance:
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying 

the attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.278   0.139   0.069   0.035   0.017   0.009   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001
3       0.370   0.194   0.102   0.053   0.028   0.014   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001
4       0.457   0.256   0.142   0.078   0.042   0.023   0.012   0.007   0.004   0.002
5       0.539   0.323   0.189   0.108   0.061   0.034   0.019   0.010   0.006   0.003
6       0.616   0.392   0.241   0.144   0.084   0.048   0.028   0.016   0.009   0.005
7       0.685   0.461   0.296   0.183   0.111   0.066   0.038   0.022   0.013   0.007
8       0.746   0.528   0.353   0.227   0.141   0.086   0.052   0.031   0.018   0.010
9       0.798   0.591   0.411   0.273   0.176   0.110   0.068   0.041   0.024   0.014
10      0.842   0.649   0.468   0.321   0.213   0.137   0.086   0.053   0.033   0.020

Wound Chance(with Heroic Defense Aura):
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as 

shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the 

attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.250   0.125   0.063   0.031   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.000
2       0.375   0.188   0.094   0.047   0.023   0.012   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.500   0.281   0.156   0.086   0.047   0.025   0.014   0.007   0.004   0.002
4       0.625   0.391   0.234   0.137   0.078   0.044   0.024   0.013   0.007   0.004
5       0.734   0.500   0.320   0.197   0.118   0.069   0.040   0.023   0.013   0.007
6       0.820   0.602   0.410   0.267   0.167   0.103   0.062   0.036   0.021   0.012
7       0.883   0.691   0.500   0.342   0.225   0.144   0.089   0.055   0.033   0.019
8       0.926   0.768   0.586   0.421   0.289   0.192   0.124   0.078   0.048   0.029
9       0.954   0.830   0.665   0.500   0.358   0.247   0.165   0.107   0.068   0.043
10      0.972   0.878   0.734   0.576   0.429   0.306   0.212   0.142   0.093   0.060
Average Damage:
Code:
This table shows the average damage caused to the attacker with double strike(when each skull rolled counts 

as two hits) on an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable 

hits).  

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000
2       0.333   0.167   0.083   0.042   0.021   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.519   0.269   0.139   0.072   0.037   0.019   0.010   0.005   0.003   0.001
4       0.728   0.395   0.213   0.114   0.061   0.032   0.017   0.009   0.005   0.003
5       0.963   0.547   0.307   0.171   0.094   0.051   0.028   0.015   0.008   0.004
6       1.219   0.724   0.422   0.242   0.137   0.077   0.043   0.024   0.013   0.007
7       1.494   0.924   0.557   0.329   0.192   0.110   0.063   0.035   0.020   0.011
8       1.784   1.145   0.713   0.434   0.259   0.153   0.089   0.051   0.029   0.017
9       2.085   1.384   0.888   0.556   0.341   0.205   0.122   0.072   0.042   0.024
10      2.394   1.639   1.083   0.695   0.437   0.269   0.163   0.098   0.058   0.034
Average Damage(with Heroic Defense Aura):
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike

(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as 

unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as 

shields).  For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the 

attacking figure due to counter strike.

        1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10      
0       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
1       0.250   0.125   0.063   0.031   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.000
2       0.375   0.188   0.094   0.047   0.023   0.012   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.001
3       0.500   0.281   0.156   0.086   0.047   0.025   0.014   0.007   0.004   0.002
4       0.625   0.391   0.234   0.137   0.078   0.044   0.024   0.013   0.007   0.004
5       0.734   0.500   0.320   0.197   0.118   0.069   0.040   0.023   0.013   0.007
6       0.820   0.602   0.410   0.267   0.167   0.103   0.062   0.036   0.021   0.012
7       0.883   0.691   0.500   0.342   0.225   0.144   0.089   0.055   0.033   0.019
8       0.926   0.768   0.586   0.421   0.289   0.192   0.124   0.078   0.048   0.029
9       0.954   0.830   0.665   0.500   0.358   0.247   0.165   0.107   0.068   0.043
10      0.972   0.878   0.734   0.576   0.429   0.306   0.212   0.142   0.093   0.060
I have been getting a lot of requests on how these tables were produced so here are some helpful equations. P(w) gives the probability that an attack of A dice will inflict a wound against a figure with D defense(i.e. kill a squad member). The specialized tables in this thread come from this formula with only slight modifications. E(w) gives the expected number of wounds an attack with A dice will inflict on a figure with D defense(i.e. average damage to a hero if the hero has at least A life). The third equation is the definition of a combination which is used in the first two formulas. "n choose m" is the number of ways you can choose n items in a set of m elements. For example if I roll three attack dice, I can get two skulls in three different ways. The skulls can be on the first and second dice, the first and third dice, or the second and third dice.


Last edited by Sisyphus; March 10th, 2009 at 11:12 AM.
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  #2  
Old February 13th, 2008, 02:51 PM
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This should be a sticky. It gets referenced in many threads.

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Old February 13th, 2008, 06:12 PM
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Just to point out, you spelled snipers wrong.

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Old February 13th, 2008, 06:28 PM
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Awesome, awesome, sticky-worthy post.

One interesting takeaway I noticed is that when attack and defense dice are tied, the chance of at least one wound is tied at 3-3, in the attacker's favor at 4-4 and above, and in the defender's favor at 2-2 and below. That right there is going to change the way I play some squad figures, I think.
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Old March 12th, 2008, 12:55 PM
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Sisyphus, great post. I wanted to save this thread from becoming buried by congratulating you for posting such helpful information.
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Old March 12th, 2008, 02:49 PM
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I like it. Very helpful! Although I would continue to update it and maybe label your tables a little better so we know what column represents dice and what column represents damage inflicted.
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Old March 12th, 2008, 06:40 PM
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I was just thinking about this thread today, and how I should bump it. Useful stuff. I think the biggest lesson for me at least is to remember that you still need one more Skull than shield to wound, and one more shield or more to get a counterstrike.

Since 4 Attack dice equal about as much skulls on average as 6 Defense gets in shields, you need one more attack die to have about a 50% chance to wound.

I like comparing something to a coin toss, because 50% odds are the easiest for me to wrap my head around in a game. Against squad figures...

1 A, >50% chance of wounding 0 D and below.
2A, "" 1 D
3A, "" 3 D
4A, "" 4 D
5A, "" 6 D
6A, "" 7 D
7A, "" 9 D

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Originally Posted by fomox View Post
(I've also played many matches with great, fun people who were using Q9. So using Q9 doesn't make you a tool. But being a tool sure seems to make you use Q9.)
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Old March 12th, 2008, 06:50 PM
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How about we get it stickied!

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Old March 28th, 2008, 11:22 PM
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I read the threads title as Syphilis problem tables. So, yeah, this thread is a bit different than I thought.....

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Old March 30th, 2008, 12:32 AM
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Ah, cool my thread is stickied. I generated some tables for Hatamoto Taro. I'll add them when I get back to the computer in which they are on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dragonfire
I read the threads title as Syphilis problem tables. So, yeah, this thread is a bit different than I thought.....
Believe it or not you are not the first person who has confused my name with Syphilis.
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Old March 30th, 2008, 01:14 AM
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I'm glad to see this thread got stickied. I actually printed out a few of the probability tables when you first made this thread. It helped me realize why I could never put a wound on that stupid soulborg
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Old March 30th, 2008, 01:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spider_poison
I'm glad to see this thread got stickied. I actually printed out a few of the probability tables when you first made this thread. It helped me realize why I could never put a wound on that stupid soulborg
It is weird because I did the exact same thing.

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