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  #121  
Old October 18th, 2013, 09:40 PM
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Misunderstandment

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinseth View Post

Let's look at Megasilver, his opponents have a record of 570-418. This is almost the same winning % as Foudzing, yet Megasilver clearly has a worse overall record than foudzing.
I think this line may have been misread.

~Dysole, who read it that way at first and then had to go correct himself


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  #122  
Old October 18th, 2013, 09:42 PM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

I don't see why the Foudzing comparison is even that significant; Mega and Foudzing are way different types of players.

Last edited by vegietarian18; October 18th, 2013 at 09:57 PM. Reason: Edited
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  #123  
Old October 18th, 2013, 10:13 PM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by greygnarl View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaSilver View Post
I play fun/weaker armies, (including what Fouzding considers not the competitive Vipers) face tougher opponents, and in the end I have the same nearly the same Win % as Fouzding. B) Take that, Fou.

(I should start playing stronger armies then. )
74% and 48% are not nearly the same at all.
Yes that's not what I was saying Mega. I was saying that your opponents win % is similar to Foudzing, eventhough your record is clearly less.

The point was that Mega's SOS was higher than average, explaining why the system would consider Mega a higher ranked player than his record might suggest.

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

Looking for a C3V/SOV miniature? Try one of these sites.

Last edited by Kinseth; October 18th, 2013 at 10:13 PM. Reason: All Win Loss records are not equal.
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  #124  
Old October 18th, 2013, 11:41 PM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinseth View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by greygnarl View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaSilver View Post
I play fun/weaker armies, (including what Fouzding considers not the competitive Vipers) face tougher opponents, and in the end I have the same nearly the same Win % as Fouzding. B) Take that, Fou.

(I should start playing stronger armies then. )
74% and 48% are not nearly the same at all.
Yes that's not what I was saying Mega. I was saying that your opponents win % is similar to Foudzing, eventhough your record is clearly less.

The point was that Mega's SOS was higher than average, explaining why the system would consider Mega a higher ranked player than his record might suggest.
Awww... misread.
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  #125  
Old October 19th, 2013, 07:53 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by greygnarl View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaSilver View Post
I play fun/weaker armies, (including what Fouzding considers not the competitive Vipers) face tougher opponents, and in the end I have the same nearly the same Win % as Fouzding. B) Take that, Fou.

(I should start playing stronger armies then. )
74% and 48% are not nearly the same at all.
I laughed a bit.

Anyway your whole comparison is useless Kinseth.
Mega and I got both a lot of games played so the system wokf for us.
But for players with few games played the system is clealy really bad


Last edited by Foudzing; October 19th, 2013 at 08:02 AM.
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  #126  
Old October 19th, 2013, 08:59 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

there isn't a system alive (elo that mtg uses and chess ) where it needs time to figure out how well of a player you are. Win loss records I just demonstrated are flawed. In any sport win loss records are flawed , that's why they play numerous games in a regular season to decide who gets in playoffs and who doesn't. And with heroscape where not everyone plays the same amount of games by the time EoY comes around they really can't be used.

If you think you have a better system , demonstrate how with examples.

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

Looking for a C3V/SOV miniature? Try one of these sites.
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  #127  
Old October 19th, 2013, 09:22 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinseth View Post
there isn't a system alive (elo that mtg uses and chess ) where it needs time to figure out how well of a player you are. Win loss records I just demonstrated are flawed. In any sport win loss records are flawed , that's why they play numerous games in a regular season to decide who gets in playoffs and who doesn't. And with heroscape where not everyone plays the same amount of games by the time EoY comes around they really can't be used.

If you think you have a better system , demonstrate how with examples.

-Filthy, who pulled his hair out years ago with these exact types of questions.
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  #128  
Old October 20th, 2013, 10:28 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Huh. I won yesterday, moved up to number 15, but today I somehow fell to 17, with boromir passing me even though he hasn't played in a ton of seasons.
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  #129  
Old October 20th, 2013, 10:35 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by vegietarian18 View Post
Huh. I won yesterday, moved up to number 15, but today I somehow fell to 17, with boromir passing me even though he hasn't played in a ton of seasons.
You fell to 17th through no action of your own. We should be posting why sometime soon.

Edit: We were testing something. You are (at least for now) restored to 15th.


Last edited by awesomeunleashed; October 20th, 2013 at 11:03 AM.
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  #130  
Old October 20th, 2013, 10:40 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by awesomeunleashed View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegietarian18 View Post
Huh. I won yesterday, moved up to number 15, but today I somehow fell to 17, with boromir passing me even though he hasn't played in a ton of seasons.
You fell to 17th through no action of your own. We should be posting why sometime soon.
Too many questions about the EOY championship and its qualification. You have angered the evil overlords.
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  #131  
Old October 20th, 2013, 10:54 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Some testing going on. Man you guys are hawks, nothing gets by you.

Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program!

Looking for a C3V/SOV miniature? Try one of these sites.
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  #132  
Old October 20th, 2013, 11:33 AM
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Re: Online Player Rankings Thread

Hey all,

So, in response to all of these complaints about players taking too long to rise to their "correct" ranking, we decided to revisit the baseline parameters of the algorithm again. A couple of these variables basically just govern what the raw numbers in the rankings end up looking like, which we don't post anyway. However, there's a value called beta (search for β in this detailed description if you want) that is significant to this discussion.

Beta (or, its value relative to the standard deviation we assign to new players) essentially describes how deterministic player skill is in a game - whether we should expect a player to always play at a certain level or whether other factors (like dice luck) can cause them to vary more widely. As a practical matter, the main effect of Beta is how quickly rankings move. The higher Beta is, the less deterministic the game is, and the slower rankings will move. If Beta is lower, rankings move more quickly, because the algorithm is more confident that a given result reflects true skill.

Anyway, we have tweaked Beta once before, just before we initially rolled out the top 25 rankings to the public. At the time, we didn't have as much data as we do now. We did some small-scale verifications to check that we weren't setting it at a crazy value, but we didn't really settle in on an optimized number. However, in response to the concerns that have been expressed here, we decided to take a more careful look at the data and try to get this value as correct as we could. At this point we have almost 900 games of data, so doing this kind of optimization is a lot more reasonable.

One of the inherent features of the Trueskill is that it makes a prediction about how often it expects player A to beat player B. So using this, we can implement a fairly straightforward mean-square error metric for the algorithm: the average of (1-p)^2 for each game, where p was the algorithm's predicted winning percentage for the player who won the game.

So, we (well, Awesomeunleashed) implemented a test script that could plug in a Beta value, calculate rankings based on it, and then sum up the error metric. For reasons that are more technical than I care to get into here, I don't consider this perfect, but it's a pretty solid metric to go by. I did a pretty standard unimodal search and settled in on a revised Beta based on that. FWIW, the Beta we had been using was 1.5 times greater than a starting player's standard deviation, and the new Beta is only 1.23 times greater.

The upshot of this is that rankings will converge a little faster with the updated Beta. The difference is not that dramatic. I don't think anyone in the top 25 moved more than 2 spots. That said, we have not decided if we are going to implement the updated value yet. We are sensitive to the concerns about changing things midstream. We did have the updated value in the system for a brief moment this morning, which some of you noticed. But the old Beta is now back in. There's some question about whether we will implement the change now, or wait until after the 2013 EoY qualifications are complete. We're discussing this internally.

Hope that explains things. We remain committed to making our ranking system the very best it can be, just like the rest of the online Heroscape experience. Cheers.
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