#193
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Thanks for setting that up, it will make this a lot easier and more fun. dok and Tornado tied for the lead right now
10 Years of Gencon/Scapecon Battle Reports - Comic Battle Reports - Probability Calculator App - Reverse the Whip Army Archetypes "It's all about the game." - Sgt. Ernie Calhoun |
#194
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
With my strategy I'm banking on lots of early round wins, so we should expect I'd get an early lead.
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#195
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Thanks for updating, whoever did that.
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#196
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Apparently my big mistake was betting the 8s instead of the 9s.
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#197
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Now that superfrog has set up a spreadsheet I can do the fun math instead of adding up the scores every round .
Here is everyone's current score and their expected average score given the first round outcomes according to the fivethirtyeight expected odds (definitely not true odds, but they are really easy to access so that's what I use). vegietarian18: 9/19.82 vegie's dad: 7/16.51 Dysole: 7/18.00 Yodaking: 9/13.92 kevindola: 6/14.10 Chris Perkins: 6/14.20 Tornado: 8/14.70 dok: 10/15.23 superfrog: 9/18.11 Kinseth: 7/13.93 Again, these aren't true odds. I built my army using the 538 expected values so it makes sense that they would still have me as the highest.
Spoiler Alert!
It's hard to see dok losing if he has 14 wins today instead of 10 so we should be grateful for the 9 seed victories. 10 Years of Gencon/Scapecon Battle Reports - Comic Battle Reports - Probability Calculator App - Reverse the Whip Army Archetypes "It's all about the game." - Sgt. Ernie Calhoun |
#198
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
I used 538 for my picks too. You can see a lot of similarity in our choices.
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#199
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
I did not use 538 for my picks
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#200
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
So I can only win if Florida State wins more games than Virginia. Other than that, vegie and I have the same teams remaining, and we're tied up to this point.
Which means I want Florida State to beat Murray State in a game I would otherwise be ambivalent about. |
#201
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Which you got.
Semi-Retired C3G Hero (and first Official Member of the C3G Target Audience!) The correct way to add C3G playtests to posts. My favorite day EVER on heroscapers. DISCLAIMER: C3G claims no ownership of the characters or artwork used for C3G customs. All rights for the characters belong to their respective publishers/creators. C3G cards are not intended for sale, and C3G does not authorize any party to profit from C3G cards. RIP George Perez
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#202
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Spreadsheet Magic
Added in some easy to read auto updating standings.
~Dysole, who was also tempted to change the vlookups to index matches but decided against it My Twitch Channel where I play Scape and other things My YouTube Channel where the games get uploaded later Dysole's Draft Rankings Map Thread (Not responsible for psychic damage) Customs Battle Reports This sentence is seven words long. This sentence is not seven words long. |
#203
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
I guess I didn't notice how similar superfrog's and my armies are; they are identical except for the final 250 points where I selected Virginia and superfrog selected Florida State, Cincinnati, and Syrcause.
By my interpretation of the tiebreaker, if Florida State and Virginia were eliminated in the same round, superfrog would have more 0 win teams than me and would beat me in the tiebreaker. But I need Virginia to win today to tie things back up. I believe that everyone still has a path to victory, although some may be complicated ones. Score update and expected score update: vegietarian18: 10/19.63 (-.19) vegie dad: 10/17.54 (+1.03) Dysole: 8/17.90 (-.10) Yodaking: 10/12.84 (-1.08 ) kevindola: 6/13.29 (-.81) Chris Perkins 8/14.64 (+.44) Tornado 11/14.90 (+.20) dok: 11/15.12 (-.12) superfrog: 11/18.42 (+.31) Kinseth: 7/12.30 (-1.63) 10 Years of Gencon/Scapecon Battle Reports - Comic Battle Reports - Probability Calculator App - Reverse the Whip Army Archetypes "It's all about the game." - Sgt. Ernie Calhoun |
#204
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Re: Sports: NCAA Basketball
Yesterday eliminated Yodaking and Kinseth and Chris Perkins from top spot contention. Yodaking only has Michigan State remaining and Dysole has a lead and Michigan State. Kinseth only has Duke and North Carolina remaining and kevindola has both and a lead. Chris Perkins only has Duke Kentucky Tennessee and Michigan remaining and vegie dad has a lead and all four of those teams. dok is in a tough spot without many upsets in the second round but I believe he could win if Purdue wins five games and a lot of other things go his way.
An interesting army matching is Dysole and I; our remaining teams are identical except Dysole has Michigan State and I have Auburn. But I have a two game lead. So if Michigan State wins two games more than Auburn, Dysole will place higher than me, otherwise, I will place higher than Dysole. 10 Years of Gencon/Scapecon Battle Reports - Comic Battle Reports - Probability Calculator App - Reverse the Whip Army Archetypes "It's all about the game." - Sgt. Ernie Calhoun |
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