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  #97  
Old May 20th, 2017, 09:55 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Looking like it has been fairly solid.

This going to be really hard to quantify. We have to weigh its potential good vs. it failing or never getting cast.

The win-loss is fairly meaningless here to me. All that really matters is what affect the spell is actually having in the grand scheme of battle.

Maybe we should call in some outside analysis for additional perspective?
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  #98  
Old May 20th, 2017, 12:56 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

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Originally Posted by Lazy Orang View Post
Another thing to bear in mind is that assuming that all the time that an attack is blocked when Mesmerise is used, the attack is being blocked by Mesmerise, is a false equivalence - a number of times, the attack would have simply been blocked anyway, which is why I've always rolled the excess dice that would have been rolled normally when testing this spell. Just because you blocked the attack after using Mesmerise doesn't necessarily mean the spell helped you in any way, shape or form - I feel like this is something that's been forgotten when looking at the results since most people don't roll the extra dice, and it has resulted in inflating the actual effect of the spell to something far greater than it actually is by counting each time an attack was blocked on its use as a wound blocked by Mesmerise.
It's not that we're ignoring it, it's that we don't put as much stock into as you do. On a 5 to 5 attack, there is a 60% chance of a wound, 70 if it's 6 on 5. Reducing those attacks by 3 decreases the odds by about 40%. Against 4 defense, those attacks are decreased about 35%, or 45 if it's a 4 on 4 attack.

5 Attack reduced to 2 against 5 Defense seems to be the most common attack that Mesmerize is used in. In those cases, it goes from a 60% chance at a wound to under 20%. More often than not, it's preventing the attack.

Also, I think it's offset (more than, even) by the added value of saving OMs, blocking additional wounds, or preventing attacks. It also adds value to Mordo by allowing him to use his other abilities, and it's great for Selene as blocking wounds gives her more attack dice and movement. In at least a couple of my games, the spell was the likely difference maker, without, it's an easy loss.

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Maybe we should call in some outside analysis for additional perspective?
The CRB is literally outside analysis designed to give additional perspective on matters of balance. I'm very inclined to trust dok's judgement here.


To get a sense of how the spell is performing though, let's look at the data:
  • In the games since the last change, it has been used in 15 of 16 games, and 12 of those 15 attacks were blocked. Twice it possibly prevented more than one wound, and twice it likely prevent a second turn from occuring.
  • In the previous games, it was used in 12 of 13 games, affecting 16 attacks, of which 14 were blocked. In at least two games, it provided additional value based on preventing additional attacks.
  • That gives us of 27 uses in 29 games, affecting 31 attacks. Out of those 31, 26 of the attacks were blocked. Discounting the additional attacks that it no longer affects, it would have affected 27 attacks, of which 22 were blocked. In at least 6 of those uses, it potentially blocked additional damage.

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  #99  
Old May 20th, 2017, 01:28 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

I trust dok's judgement also but it may be easier for some to listen if there is more than one voice.

You know, second opinion and all that.
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  #100  
Old May 20th, 2017, 06:28 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

So what's happening here? I ask because this discussion doesn't appear to be going anywhere, and I really don't want this to be held up any longer with nothing happening.


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  #101  
Old May 20th, 2017, 11:32 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Is it actually possible to cost this spell appropriately for it to be of general use to spellcasters outside Mordo without being priced so low as to be an automatic inclusion with them? Mesmerize only really does the one thing, and it's allow an MD figure to potentially survive a bit longer than they normally would. This is useful to all MD figures in all matchups, outside unusual scenario play, so if the price is right there is never an army you wouldn't use it in.

The stated goal of pricing this spell so far has been to make it draftable for spellcasters other than Mordo. I don't think, however, that it's possible to price it at draftable level without also pricing it at necessity level (which is to say, without pricing it at the level dok was mentioning where you would always be running a strictly worse army by not including it). I think instead we should acknowledge that there aren't enough variables to fiddle with here and just price it at a level where it's useful for Mordo and as a counterdraft against powers that trigger on a successful attack. Trying to broaden it any further risks making it ubiquitous, which I think would be a far worse result than it being slightly overcosted.
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  #102  
Old May 20th, 2017, 11:38 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

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Originally Posted by All Your Pie View Post
Is it actually possible to cost this spell appropriately for it to be of general use to spellcasters outside Mordo without being priced so low as to be an automatic inclusion with them? Mesmerize only really does the one thing, and it's allow an MD figure to potentially survive a bit longer than they normally would. This is useful to all MD figures in all matchups, outside unusual scenario play, so if the price is right there is never an army you wouldn't use it in.

The stated goal of pricing this spell so far has been to make it draftable for spellcasters other than Mordo. I don't think, however, that it's possible to price it at draftable level without also pricing it at necessity level (which is to say, without pricing it at the level dok was mentioning where you would always be running a strictly worse army by not including it). I think instead we should acknowledge that there aren't enough variables to fiddle with here and just price it at a level where it's useful for Mordo and as a counterdraft against powers that trigger on a successful attack. Trying to broaden it any further risks making it ubiquitous, which I think would be a far worse result than it being slightly overcosted.
That is ignoring the fact that, when tested with Mordo, with the old version at 15 points, no one actually had an issue and Mordo + Spells felt like a good package at 310. I think making the present version of the spell 30, which will probably result in that package coming in at 320, shouldn't be a problem.


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  #103  
Old May 21st, 2017, 12:11 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Orang View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by All Your Pie View Post
Is it actually possible to cost this spell appropriately for it to be of general use to spellcasters outside Mordo without being priced so low as to be an automatic inclusion with them? Mesmerize only really does the one thing, and it's allow an MD figure to potentially survive a bit longer than they normally would. This is useful to all MD figures in all matchups, outside unusual scenario play, so if the price is right there is never an army you wouldn't use it in.

The stated goal of pricing this spell so far has been to make it draftable for spellcasters other than Mordo. I don't think, however, that it's possible to price it at draftable level without also pricing it at necessity level (which is to say, without pricing it at the level dok was mentioning where you would always be running a strictly worse army by not including it). I think instead we should acknowledge that there aren't enough variables to fiddle with here and just price it at a level where it's useful for Mordo and as a counterdraft against powers that trigger on a successful attack. Trying to broaden it any further risks making it ubiquitous, which I think would be a far worse result than it being slightly overcosted.
That is ignoring the fact that, when tested with Mordo, with the old version at 15 points, no one actually had an issue and Mordo + Spells felt like a good package at 310. I think making the present version of the spell 30, which will probably result in that package coming in at 320, shouldn't be a problem.
True, but as far as cost is concerned testing is more about the results than the opinion of the testers. I don't think it makes sense to argue with the ERB about the precise numerical value of how many points a spell is actually earning in-practice. I think it's easy for the people testing a low-cost card to misunderstand its impact, myself included. The playtests are useful for the raw data they create, and for testing a spell's game experience or finding unexpected builds, but the testers should not be relied upon to interpret the date and estimate a cost simply by virtue of being the testers.

As I understand it, figuring out the spell's cost is a matter of figuring out roughly what the chances are of it buying a spellcaster an extra point of life, and then pricing it so that it's not always a no-brainer pick. Is, say, a 70% chance of giving Dr. Fate 1 extra life worth 30 points? What about Enchantress? Again, I don't actually know, but I feel like the direction and methodology needs to be clarified here. We have too much data to be simply going off what people felt was right.
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  #104  
Old May 21st, 2017, 12:22 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Quote:
Originally Posted by All Your Pie View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Orang View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by All Your Pie View Post
Is it actually possible to cost this spell appropriately for it to be of general use to spellcasters outside Mordo without being priced so low as to be an automatic inclusion with them? Mesmerize only really does the one thing, and it's allow an MD figure to potentially survive a bit longer than they normally would. This is useful to all MD figures in all matchups, outside unusual scenario play, so if the price is right there is never an army you wouldn't use it in.

The stated goal of pricing this spell so far has been to make it draftable for spellcasters other than Mordo. I don't think, however, that it's possible to price it at draftable level without also pricing it at necessity level (which is to say, without pricing it at the level dok was mentioning where you would always be running a strictly worse army by not including it). I think instead we should acknowledge that there aren't enough variables to fiddle with here and just price it at a level where it's useful for Mordo and as a counterdraft against powers that trigger on a successful attack. Trying to broaden it any further risks making it ubiquitous, which I think would be a far worse result than it being slightly overcosted.
That is ignoring the fact that, when tested with Mordo, with the old version at 15 points, no one actually had an issue and Mordo + Spells felt like a good package at 310. I think making the present version of the spell 30, which will probably result in that package coming in at 320, shouldn't be a problem.
True, but as far as cost is concerned testing is more about the results than the opinion of the testers. I don't think it makes sense to argue with the ERB about the precise numerical value of how many points a spell is actually earning in-practice. I think it's easy for the people testing a low-cost card to misunderstand its impact, myself included. The playtests are useful for the raw data they create, and for testing a spell's game experience or finding unexpected builds, but the testers should not be relied upon to interpret the date and estimate a cost simply by virtue of being the testers.

As I understand it, figuring out the spell's cost is a matter of figuring out roughly what the chances are of it buying a spellcaster an extra point of life, and then pricing it so that it's not always a no-brainer pick. Is, say, a 70% chance of giving Dr. Fate 1 extra life worth 30 points? What about Enchantress? Again, I don't actually know, but I feel like the direction and methodology needs to be clarified here. We have too much data to be simply going off what people felt was right.
Perhaps, but it's interaction with Mordo is less quantifiable by statistics and more by actual in game effect, and that's something you have to rely on testers instincts for - as is, IMO, judging something's value in general. I don't feel like pure statistics always hold up in the place of gamplay experience - having tested the spell myself, several times, I can say with confidence that, if it came in at 40 or, God forbid, even higher, I would never wish to draft the spell - not with any generic spellcaster, not as a counterdraft, not with Mordo - never, and if it comes to that, I would rather abandon the design than pass something that is useless. 30 really is the ceiling for me here, based on my experience - 35 at a massive push.


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  #105  
Old May 21st, 2017, 10:53 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Okay, this... doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and the longer this drags on, the longer I'm tied up with it and unable to do anything else. Therefore, may I ask that:
  1. We try to get this moving, and;
  2. If it hasn't moved in a week, could I be allowed to bend the rules and move onto something else?


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  #106  
Old May 21st, 2017, 11:23 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

Hmm... maybe we need a poll here? See what costs everybody thinks is best based on the results.

Personally, 30-35 seems good to me.

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  #107  
Old May 21st, 2017, 11:24 AM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

My personal vote would be 25, but that seems unlikely, and I'm okay with 30-35 to move it forwards, so put me down for 30.

And @Viegon - thank you for hopefully helping to get this moving.


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  #108  
Old May 21st, 2017, 01:56 PM
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Re: The Spellbook of Mesmerize - Vote for Final Editing

I think of stayed my opinion here pretty clearly. I'm not going to throw away statistical data in favor of gut feeling. Especially not when my own experience makes me think that 15-20 is too low. 30 seems like an absolute minimum here. I'd feel much better with 35, and 40 wouldn't be a stretch.

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