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  #553  
Old November 11th, 2016, 01:37 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things. I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.
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  #554  
Old November 11th, 2016, 02:08 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

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Originally Posted by vegietarian18 View Post
I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things.
I'm not sure why you're so resistant to believing what the polling trends and exit poll data pretty clearly suggests, but OK

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I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.
No, I think that's actually a large part of the answer, but not like the primaries. Rather, much more expanded early voting makes it much harder for transient news to influence the election so heavily.

The other thing that would be nice would be for the media coverage to become more inoculated against sensationalist stories and more issue focused. That would be a tough change to make.
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  #555  
Old November 11th, 2016, 03:14 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

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Originally Posted by vegietarian18 View Post
I guess we can just disagree on the importance of the email resurgence on the race. I don't think it swung things. I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories. I'm not sure what we can do to fix it though, besides a general election spread out like the primaries are. I don't think anyone would want that.
How far are we off from "Media Assassins" next election (if we are not there now). The Access Hollywood thing was worrying enough, but the timing of the Email this was very questionable.


The fact that someone didn't manufacture a real criminal case against trump is actually pretty amazing. Would anyone have really doubted a few of women coming forward in the same way they did with Cosbey? Sure it could all be baloney but at that point in the game it would not matter. Hell with photoshop it would not be hard to show that Trump was a Clansman, and again it is very believable. Again the offending Journalist could just say "Oops" at the end of it all and it is all forgiven.


What is really worrying (to me at least) is that this means people are deciding on Personality not platform. That is terrifying. Logically I know many people go with the person that has the simplest message they agree with "Lower Taxes" regardless of how crazy (or Missing) the full platform is. But for some reason I keep subscripting higher thought and reasoning to peoples decision making.


It seems if you can't put it into 120 character it is not worth listening to, and that is a scary place to be.


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  #556  
Old November 11th, 2016, 07:29 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

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Originally Posted by vegietarian18 View Post
I agree that having an "October surprise" swing the election could be bad though, especially if people manufacture the timing for stories.
There's nothing new with respect to managing the timing of stories. The Trump tape was released on the date it was expected to do the most damage. The Wikileaks release of information was timed to do the most damage.

The Comey letter came about as a result of information from an investigation into Anthony Weiner. If there was any attempt to time this, I haven't heard it. Yes, there was a real question as to whether the letter should have happened, but the rebuttal is that leaks would have been as bad or worse. Of course, if Clinton had released everything up front, the Comey letter would not have happened. I have no idea if it would have changed the outcome of the election.
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  #557  
Old November 11th, 2016, 07:49 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

There is literally nothing that Clinton could have released that would have prevented the FBI from finding out that Weiner's wife sometimes used her appropriately-named husband's laptop. And apparently there was nothing on it to find. And we don't know what the state of the investigation was at the time of the first Comey letter; I suspect the investigation had been dormant for quite some time.

Comey specifically said it was something people should know, which I find - after a career in the criminal justice system - incredibly offensive. The whole point of not releasing information during the pendency of an investigation is that outsiders do not have enough information to put it in context, and will misinterpret it, which happened with both Comey contributions.

It's all water under the bridge, vis a vis the election, but it truly bugged me, as a guy who cares about system integrity.

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  #558  
Old November 13th, 2016, 09:52 AM
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Re: Decision 2016

Protests are still going strong.

Regardless of whether you think they're justified or not, protesting is not the way to convince Trump voters that their choice was wrong. If anything, seeing the liberal, PC crowd out pitching a fit will just make Trump supporters even more stubborn and sure they made the right choice.

That's the view I'm getting from SC, anyway. Can't hardly walk through Wal-Mart without seeing several "Make America Great" caps and hearing discussions about "crybaby" liberals. I'm hearing a lot of talk about a double standard, too. Like of Trump supporters were protesting, a lot of people I've heard think he and his supporters would be ripped apart in the media.

That's how things are looking down South, anyway.

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  #559  
Old November 13th, 2016, 10:18 AM
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Re: Decision 2016

I don't think they're trying to persuade anyone of anything. They're just outraged and expressing themselves.

Their demonstrations are principled, in the time-honored way all such protests are principled. His divisive rhetoric left many people on the outside looking in.

Is it principled to mock them, and call them names? I'm not saying you are, I'm just asking. I'm also much more troubled by the kkk parades than I am these protests. Ideally the President Elect would repudiate the parades in his name. Time will tell.

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  #560  
Old November 13th, 2016, 12:03 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

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Originally Posted by dok View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider30 View Post
The vast MAJORITY of Americans are not like these people, do not like these people, and hate when they pull stuff like this so lets just condemn their bad behavior without assigning some sort of left/right/center label ok?
This is true, but the atmosphere has changed. At the school where my wife works, there were three separate incidents today where minority students were harassed ("go back where you came from" and the like).

Kids will be kids, and this isn't the same level as swastikas, but we shouldn't discount the reality here. Trump's election has validated a certain flavor of nativism that makes this sort of behavior a lot closer to the mainstream than it was before.
On Thursday, the 10th, when I came home from work, my 13 year-old twin daughters told me about some boys at school that formed a wall around some Hispanic kids and shouted "Build that wall, Build that wall".

I believe this was the first time that the Superintendent in her tenure had to visit any school (their middle-school) and talk to students about this kind of behavior. One of my daughter's social studies teachers tore one of those boys a new asshole in his class (I love that teacher). He's not afraid to yell and straighten kids out that misbehave with substitutes, or that talk in class when they are not supposed to. So he really let this kid have it and stood over the kid as he apologized to one of the kids (a girl), who he taunted with "build that wall" crap.

There was another thing that came up earlier in the week. My daughters told us about a girl leaving school to be home schooled because of bullying. She's considered Emo and likes to change the color of her hair a lot, maybe is a "cutter" (though there are others at the school that are), but is a nice kid that may be dealing with depression issues. Anyway, the girls showed us an Instagram thread where someone came on there with a made up name and started tormenting the girl. Telling her that she's ugly, that she should kill herself, and that she's a dirty transgender (she's not, but either way, it's wrong to say). She had some friends stick up for her in that thread, and I was enlightened to the "language" these 8th grade girls were using.

If my kids ever treated anyone like the above two examples (or in any other imaginable nasty scenario), I would kick their ass from here to the moon. My wife and I have always taught our kids to be tolerant and accept differences and to never treat others badly, nor be friends with those that do. It's totally unacceptable behavior and will never be tolerated by me.

It's funny how Trump and his supporters are bothered by these protests (though I think the destruction of property is wrong in protests), when they said they'd protest if Hillary won.

Some people think that the protests are simply because their candidate didn't win, but it's really about people being afraid about what's going to happen to the real marginalized people. People are worried about families being broken apart, LGBT people losing rights (for people not from Indiana, Pence is an evil PoS and hates LGBT community), Muslims have to be worried about being tormented, etc.

The same is true for the schools that offer counseling to students. Now my first instinct was that this was liberal coddling at it's worst, for counseling students because their candidate didn't win. And I still think that if it is for those students. But, if it's for students that have actual fears as I mentioned above with regards to the protests, then I understand it. This is unprecedented territory, when a Presidential candidate stirred up so much hate towards certain groups of people. No, most people that voted for Trump aren't hate filled, but there are some that are, enough that legitimizes the fear and uncertainty that many have now.

I believe that what Comey did certainly did have a big enough impact to help Trump win the election. That was totally irresponsible IMO. There was nothing there, and no reason to announce an issue if you don't know there is an issue, and I have a difficult time believing that his staff went through hundreds of thousands of emails in that time before he announced it was all for nothing. Well too late now folks, the horse has left the barn so to speak. Keep in mind, that there was a lot of early voting going on, so during the time between the first and second announcement by Comey, there were a lot of people that voted.

As for the Democrats, while Hillary was quite qualified, though with some flaws, her time in service and link to Bill gave a lot more ammunition for the Trump campaign to bring to light. So that was one thing that hurt. But I don't think she was very inspiring either. When a candidate's best strategy is to lay low and let the other candidate implode, that's not saying too much to me. It became more about voting "against" Trump and not "for" Clinton. Certainly the same is true for the people voting "against" Clinton, but as much as a jagoff that Trump is, he brought out passion and a sense of change for those that really wanted to see some change. Some people just wanted a change in the same old crap in Washington and that, and the mistrust of Clinton were enough to get a vote for Trump. Though it's funny in a sense in that there are so many lobbyists in the Trump camp, so the voters that were tired of lobbyists and big business running Washington, nothing is changed.

I think that BLM didn't help either. I get the core concept and I agree that there needs to be something done about the way the judicial system has worked for some people, but I don't think they went about it the best of ways. For one thing, when you name your movement Black Lives Matter, it really sends mixed messages to many people. For one thing, it can appear to mean that other lives don't matter. It can make people question why they aren't protesting black on black crime etc. They also generalized all police and people in the legal system as being racist and that the whole system was rigged to work against blacks. This generalization caused a lot of divisiveness, as while there are some bad elements in the police and legal system for sure, there are also a lot more good people just trying to do the best job they can, and of course the families of those people that took issue with damning generalization. That said, part of why BLM and other movements came about is because of the same generalizations that blacks are criminals, thugs, gangbangers, welfare frauds etc. Not only were those perceptions out there, but the system seemed to actually act on those perceptions in many cases. So the middle-class white people and justice system pretty much got a taste of what it feels like to be generalized in a bad light. Sure there are plenty of racists, just like there are plenty of black criminals, thugs, etc, but in both cases, most of the people aren't this and get fed up when they are lumped in with the dregs of society.

Kapernick certainly did his part in bringing people to Trump's side IMO. I know of so many people that are so pissed off about his kneeling and generalizing the entire country as being bad, that not only that strengthen their resolve for Trump, but also got them to boycott the NFL. People should not dismiss the power of social media and the patriot movement.

Another thing that hurt Clinton, is Obamacare. While there are some great things about it, such as not being turned away for existing conditions and the extension of coverage for children until they are 26, there are some not so good things that affected those that ended up voting for Trump. I talked to a nurse practitioner at work the other day and she was self-insured until recently when becoming an employee with the hospital I work at. She said that over the past 8 years, her insurance had gone up from $200/month, to $2,200/month and that she was pissed that she's paying for people that are too lazy to work. Well for one thing, I don't know the entirety of truth to her claim of insurance costs, though it may be truth. But I believe there is still Medicaid for people that aren't working for certain reasons. Also, whenever I hear about "lazy people not willing to work" comments, while I agree that there are some that fit that bill for sure, I wonder if these people making these comments actually believe there are good jobs out there for every working age person in this country that would be willing and able to work? Say that everyone that can, wants to work, are there jobs for all those people? Are there jobs that are such that they can have insurance through those employers and afford a place to live, childcare, a vehicle etc.? I don't think so. But there are a lot of people that don't think that much into it, they just react because their insurance costs skyrocketed and get the feeling that it's that way to be able to support lazy people.

The other thing about Obamacare is that a lot of jobs had to be cut down to fewer hours per week, because otherwise the employer would have to pay insurance. Small businesses often can't all of a sudden bring in more money to cover the added costs of providing insurance. Heck, I know it affected the school system in Indiana in that they had to cut jobs and reduce hours of some people because otherwise they would by law have to provide insurance. There isn't any room in the budgets for that (thanks Pence for hating public school system and using tax money for charter schools that are not held to the same standards as public schools and don't produce better students, but the money is good for the private sector businesses behind them).

So while Obamacare has some good qualities, there are some things that pissed off enough people to vote for Trump, because with Clinton, it would be more of the same.

Sorry for such a long post. I came late to this party and have been thinking about things and having many discussions about this campaign and results.

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  #561  
Old November 13th, 2016, 12:13 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by Swamper View Post
Protests are still going strong.

Regardless of whether you think they're justified or not, protesting is not the way to convince Trump voters that their choice was wrong. If anything, seeing the liberal, PC crowd out pitching a fit will just make Trump supporters even more stubborn and sure they made the right choice.

That's the view I'm getting from SC, anyway. Can't hardly walk through Wal-Mart without seeing several "Make America Great" caps and hearing discussions about "crybaby" liberals. I'm hearing a lot of talk about a double standard, too. Like of Trump supporters were protesting, a lot of people I've heard think he and his supporters would be ripped apart in the media.

That's how things are looking down South, anyway.
The Trump people said they would have protested had Clinton won. So they are hypocrites, and yes, would have been ripped in the media.

The difference is that for many, the people protesting now, are protesting because of legitimate fears based on the divisive nature of the Trump campaign and the way the haters will be emboldened by the Trump Presidency. "If Trump can say it, so can we", "Our President can grab women, wants Mexicans out, hates Muslims etc., so we can do the same and help get them out." People that have hate in their heart will see Trump's win as a green light to legitimize their hate (I'm not saying it's rational though).

If Clinton would have won, how many people are in fear that their family would be torn apart, their children would be bullied, attacked and maybe killed? How many people would fear for their daughters being assaulted more than they already likely do because of sick bastards?

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  #562  
Old November 13th, 2016, 01:36 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

Regretting my recent rep to you because it means I can't rep this post. Anyway, a few scattered responses:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hahma View Post
I have a difficult time believing that his staff went through hundreds of thousands of emails in that time before he announced it was all for nothing.
Not actually that hard when you think about it.

Yes, there were hundreds of thousands of e-mails total on the e-mail account, but all that matters is how many of those are among the 33,000 "missing" e-mails that Clinton didn't hand over. For the purposes of the election, nobody cares about e-mails not involving Clinton. So:
  1. Compile a table of unique identifiers of all the e-mails you already have from the server (I assume this had already been done, but not a hard task even if for some amazing reason it hadn't)
  2. Filter out all e-mails in the new set not sent to or from Clinton's e-mail server.
  3. Compile a table of unique identifiers for all the remaining e-mails in the new set
  4. Cross-reference and throw out all the e-mails that are dupes of ones you've already reviewed.
  5. Take the remaining set (maybe 1000 e-mails? Even that sounds high to me, but say 2000, high end?) and have some staffers go through them by hand and flag any that arguably contain State Department work-related content.
  6. Take the flagged (few dozen?) e-mails and have the higher-ups review them to see if they merit further action.
Given the expertise available at the FBI, the coding tasks (1-4) should take NO MORE than a day. Going through the remaining e-mails is just a manpower problem; you could make it take a few hours if you put enough people on it.

Honestly, it shouldn't have taken a full week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hahma View Post
For one thing, when you name your movement Black Lives Matter, it really sends mixed messages to many people. For one thing, it can appear to mean that other lives don't matter.
I don't disagree that it's poor branding. But to me, the "all lives matter" response has always sounded like someone running around at race for the cure screaming "all cures matter". I mean, you're not wrong, but shouldn't it be obvious that you're missing the point?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hahma View Post
Kapernick certainly did his part in bringing people to Trump's side IMO. I know of so many people that are so pissed off about his kneeling and generalizing the entire country as being bad, that not only that strengthen their resolve for Trump, but also got them to boycott the NFL. People should not dismiss the power of social media and the patriot movement.
I disagree here; I really doubt more than a tiny number of people were actually convinced to vote for Trump by Kaepernick's protest. It's more that it was red meat for already-strong supporters.

(I was never offended by Kaepernick, but I did take some issue with Megan Rapinoe following suit. The right to a nonviolent, non-disruptive protest is important in a free society, but Rapinoe was choosing to represent the USA and to protest it at the same time, which is at least somewhat inconsistent.)

I'm not going to go point by point on the Obamacare stuff but I have addressed some of the health care cost inflation numbers in an earlier post.

Last edited by dok; November 13th, 2016 at 02:23 PM.
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  #563  
Old November 13th, 2016, 02:37 PM
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Yeah...

As I was reading Hahma's post, I'm reminded of what I posted on facebook on Thursday coalescing my thoughts and fears and plans going forward (some things have shifted slightly but I'm still in wait and see mode). It's probably easier for me to just post it here than reiterating everything.

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  #564  
Old November 13th, 2016, 08:32 PM
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Re: Decision 2016

So, the White House has its first staffer. Stephen Bannon, chief strategist for the President of the United States. One of the most powerful people on earth, a notorious racist, anti-Semite, corrupt, vile man.

Here we go!

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