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  #4993  
Old January 15th, 2013, 12:53 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

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I thought it was a fluke the ravens won. 97% of the time a team down by 7 with 30 seconds left and having to go 70 yards loses. That's a fluke to win against those odds.

BS dude. I've seen Manning and Brady do exactly what Flacco did saturday night on that final drive, several times. Why do they get lauded as heroes and Flacco gets called lucky. If it was the other way around Manning would be nominated for sainthood.
Heh - this may be my only chance ever to agree with clancampbell and I'm taking it!

~Aldin, anti-flukily
FWIW I can promise both manning and brady feel lucky when they win sometimes. Like when manning came back from down 21 to beat tampa or brady won the tuck game both got a little lucky. Dont get me wrong it took skill as well but luck had it's role. Just like Seattle got lucky saturday to even come close after being down 20 at halftime. Or Atlanta winning in the last 30 seconds off a couple really good plays. Luck is essential in the nfl
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  #4994  
Old January 15th, 2013, 01:17 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

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Originally Posted by XDVincent View Post
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Originally Posted by Aldin View Post
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Originally Posted by clancampbell View Post
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I thought it was a fluke the ravens won. 97% of the time a team down by 7 with 30 seconds left and having to go 70 yards loses. That's a fluke to win against those odds.

BS dude. I've seen Manning and Brady do exactly what Flacco did saturday night on that final drive, several times. Why do they get lauded as heroes and Flacco gets called lucky. If it was the other way around Manning would be nominated for sainthood.
Heh - this may be my only chance ever to agree with clancampbell and I'm taking it!

~Aldin, anti-flukily
FWIW I can promise both manning and brady feel lucky when they win sometimes. Like when manning came back from down 21 to beat tampa or brady won the tuck game both got a little lucky. Dont get me wrong it took skill as well but luck had it's role. Just like Seattle got lucky saturday to even come close after being down 20 at halftime. Or Atlanta winning in the last 30 seconds off a couple really good plays. Luck is essential in the nfl
The Colts are the perfect example of a team that is very reliant on Luck.
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  #4995  
Old January 15th, 2013, 01:51 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

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Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent
Luck is essential in the nfl
The Colts are the perfect example of a team that is very reliant on Luck.


The point, XDV, is that the larger your sample size is, the lower your luck-based variance winds up being. That means that given the sample size of an NFL or Heroscape game, the side that performs better will generally win. The closer the two sides are in capability, scheme and execution, the more play luck has in deciding the outcome. Which means, oddly, that in saying that your side was less lucky you tend to be admitting that the other side played at a level which was similar to the level your side played at. If your side plays better, it tends to win regardless. So the complaints are a bit strange because it means that the unlucky team is admitting that it performed at a level where it needed luck to win - at which point, obviously, it wouldn't be complaining about luck.

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  #4996  
Old January 15th, 2013, 08:36 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aldin View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent
Luck is essential in the nfl
The Colts are the perfect example of a team that is very reliant on Luck.


The point, XDV, is that the larger your sample size is, the lower your luck-based variance winds up being. That means that given the sample size of an NFL or Heroscape game, the side that performs better will generally win. The closer the two sides are in capability, scheme and execution, the more play luck has in deciding the outcome. Which means, oddly, that in saying that your side was less lucky you tend to be admitting that the other side played at a level which was similar to the level your side played at. If your side plays better, it tends to win regardless. So the complaints are a bit strange because it means that the unlucky team is admitting that it performed at a level where it needed luck to win - at which point, obviously, it wouldn't be complaining about luck.

~Aldin, looking over a four leaf clover that he overlooked before
I agree, all I'm saying is that luck was essential in the Ravens win, I'm in no way taking away from their performance, to be expected to lose by ~10 and win the game shows amazing play and dedication, but to say that they won without luck is ridiculous. They got lucky that Champ had one of his worst games ever, that the DB's played too shallow and let smith run past them, and that they slipped on the game tying TD, and that Fox was over-conservative. But I do get what you're saying. I was mainly pointing out that clancampbell's post saying that Manning and Brady have done what Flacco has done multiple times I feel is a little over-board since I think I can maybe find 2 or 3 (if that) times where they got a deep man on a 70ish yard game tying TD because the DB fell.
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  #4997  
Old January 16th, 2013, 06:54 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aldin View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent
Luck is essential in the nfl
The Colts are the perfect example of a team that is very reliant on Luck.


The point, XDV, is that the larger your sample size is, the lower your luck-based variance winds up being. That means that given the sample size of an NFL or Heroscape game, the side that performs better will generally win. The closer the two sides are in capability, scheme and execution, the more play luck has in deciding the outcome. Which means, oddly, that in saying that your side was less lucky you tend to be admitting that the other side played at a level which was similar to the level your side played at. If your side plays better, it tends to win regardless. So the complaints are a bit strange because it means that the unlucky team is admitting that it performed at a level where it needed luck to win - at which point, obviously, it wouldn't be complaining about luck.

~Aldin, looking over a four leaf clover that he overlooked before
I agree, all I'm saying is that luck was essential in the Ravens win, I'm in no way taking away from their performance, to be expected to lose by ~10 and win the game shows amazing play and dedication, but to say that they won without luck is ridiculous. They got lucky that Champ had one of his worst games ever, that the DB's played too shallow and let smith run past them, and that they slipped on the game tying TD, and that Fox was over-conservative. But I do get what you're saying. I was mainly pointing out that clancampbell's post saying that Manning and Brady have done what Flacco has done multiple times I feel is a little over-board since I think I can maybe find 2 or 3 (if that) times where they got a deep man on a 70ish yard game tying TD because the DB fell.
I don't think that Clan was trying to say that Manning and Brady had 70yd td's to tie the game, I really think his point was just the idea that they have brought their team back multiple times in those situations. When it happens the media goes ga-ga over them, where when Flacco does it, they point out all the mistakes the defense made instead of giving him some credit.

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  #4998  
Old January 16th, 2013, 08:46 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aldin View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by XDVincent
Luck is essential in the nfl
The Colts are the perfect example of a team that is very reliant on Luck.


The point, XDV, is that the larger your sample size is, the lower your luck-based variance winds up being. That means that given the sample size of an NFL or Heroscape game, the side that performs better will generally win. The closer the two sides are in capability, scheme and execution, the more play luck has in deciding the outcome. Which means, oddly, that in saying that your side was less lucky you tend to be admitting that the other side played at a level which was similar to the level your side played at. If your side plays better, it tends to win regardless. So the complaints are a bit strange because it means that the unlucky team is admitting that it performed at a level where it needed luck to win - at which point, obviously, it wouldn't be complaining about luck.

~Aldin, looking over a four leaf clover that he overlooked before
I agree, all I'm saying is that luck was essential in the Ravens win, I'm in no way taking away from their performance, to be expected to lose by ~10 and win the game shows amazing play and dedication, but to say that they won without luck is ridiculous. They got lucky that Champ had one of his worst games ever, that the DB's played too shallow and let smith run past them, and that they slipped on the game tying TD, and that Fox was over-conservative. But I do get what you're saying. I was mainly pointing out that clancampbell's post saying that Manning and Brady have done what Flacco has done multiple times I feel is a little over-board since I think I can maybe find 2 or 3 (if that) times where they got a deep man on a 70ish yard game tying TD because the DB fell.

And Tom Brady got really lucky that Houston couldn't stop him.


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  #4999  
Old January 16th, 2013, 09:48 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL



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  #5000  
Old January 16th, 2013, 10:07 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Every time I look at this thread now I laugh at XDV's comment that the DB "fell down." He didn't fall down, he got beaten down the field and misjudged a ball that was high in the air. He leapt unsuccessfully to get to it.

Fell down? Every time I see that I think of a banana peel on the field.

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  #5001  
Old January 16th, 2013, 10:18 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Well it is inexcusable to let anyone get behind you in that situation. I'd say it was more a mistake of the defense than anything special that Flacco and his WR did.

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  #5002  
Old January 16th, 2013, 11:43 AM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Definitely a mistake on the DB's part and some good ole fashion luck for Flacco in that case. The pass is exactly how analysts are describing it, a desparate one (or just call it a bad pass, either way it wasn't good). Falcco simply chucked it. There was no perfect placement of the ball or threading the needle. He threw it up for grabs and was fortuante that his receiver made a great play on the ball coming back for it.

I don't be grudge him (Flacco) for it. You need some luck to win games. Just like when a RB fumbles the ball on his way into the endzone and one of his blockers happens to fall on it first. No skill there, just fortunate the ball fell into a teammates hands.

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  #5003  
Old January 16th, 2013, 12:09 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

When the camera panned downfield on that throw and I saw where the defenders were, my instant reaction was "that should be a pick". If Moore just keeps running deeper instead of stopping 2 strides short and waiting, he has perfect position for the catch.

Generally, throwing down the sideline to a mediocre receiver bracketed with double coverage is a terrible decision. However, Flacco has to make that throw. It was a desperate moment in the game, and only an extremely risky play has any chance of delivering a win to the Ravens. A perfect throw would have been a few yards deeper (Jones had nearly come to a stop when he caught it), but given the circumstances it was a darn good throw.

Both statistically and by the "eye test", it was one of the best games of Flacco's career.
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  #5004  
Old January 16th, 2013, 12:15 PM
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Re: Sports: NFL

Sure there was luck. It was not an easy play for the safety to make - the ball was on an unusually high arc - and he failed memorably. Considering it was dropping almost straight down a pick against a well placed receiver would have been difficult. But a competent safety should have been able to defend the pass or tackle the receiver immediately.

I was just amused by the "fell down" line. That's all.

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