Green Wyrmling discussion and playtesting

[dok]

Originally Posted by TnT2

Fledging Counterstrike
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent attacking figure, if no blanks are rolled, then any excess shields that are rolled count as unblockable hits on the attacker.

FWIW, the number of shields rolled and symbols rolled are not independent. So the power is a bit better than the odds you cite suggest.

Personally, I don't like powers that penalize you for getting more dice, although I recognize there is precedent for this in powers like Maul and Venomous Sting.

The bigger issue is that all official powers, aside from flagbearer powers of course, are compatible with the red and blue dice, and I'd prefer to stick with that.

[TnT2]

You are correct, the sides of the dice are not independent. However, the chance you roll NO BLANKS is 48%. However, within this, there is a stronger likelihood you rolled lots of shields. So, the average number of shields rolled is higher when counterstrike is activated. But it is still only 48% of the time.

And it is not as though you are worse off with more dice. You will defend. You just won't get counterstrike as often.

I should just do the work and calculte the odds....

But, your idea, your call. And your comment wrt the red and blue dice is valid. Though how many of those are still in play?

I look forward to seeing the final result

[dok]

Originally Posted by TnT2

You are correct, the sides of the dice are not independent. However, the chance you roll NO BLANKS is 48%. However, within this, there is a stronger likelihood you rolled lots of shields. So, the average number of shields rolled is higher when counterstrike is activated. But it is still only 48% of the time.

The point I'm trying to make is that the 48% number is meaningless, because you will not roll no blanks 48% of the time when you have excess shields.

For example, say your opponent rolled 1 skull. The chance you roll 0 blanks is 48%. But all that is relevant is the chance you roll 0 blanks if you roll 2 or more shields.

The chance of rolling 2 shields is 6*(1/3)^2*(2/3)^2 = 30%.
The chance of rolling 3 shields is 4*(1/3)^3*(2/3) = 5%.
The chance of rolling 4 shields is (1/3)^4 = 1.2%.

The chance of rolling a symbol if you roll 2 shields on 4 dice is 44%.
The chance of rolling a symbol if you roll 3 shields on 4 dice is 25%.
The chance of rolling a symbol if you roll 4 shields on 4 dice is 0%.

The chance of the symbol "blocking" a 2-shield counterstrike is 30%*44% = 13%.
The chance of the symbol "blocking" a 3-shield counterstrike is 5%*25* = 1.25%.
The chance of the symbol "blocking" a 4-shield counterstrike is 0%.

So the total chance of the symbol "blocking" counterstrike on a 1-skull attack is NOT 52% (the chance of rolling at least 1 symbol on 4 dice). It is about 14%. The fact that you would roll a symbol on a very high percentage of 1-shield and 0-shield rolls is not relevant, because there's no counterstrike to prevent.

If we look at it as a percentage of counterstrikes that get blocked, it does seem more meaningful. The symbol will prevent 14%/36% = 39% of successful counterstrikes, which is a significant percentage. But less than 52%.

Originally Posted by TnT2

But, your idea, your call.

I don't really intend to take "ownership" of the Green Wyrmling design here. I'm just hoping we can come to some conclusions on what is worth trying and then have a centralized clearinghouse for tests. I'm just trying to guide the discussion.

[XDVincent]

For all that its worth the best idea I think we've seen is the ability to only deal a maximum of 1 wound no matter the ne'er of excess shields. If you look at all the other wyrmlings powers compared to their dragon counterpart the abilities are toned down powers of the original dragons in the idea that heroes are less susceptible to the attack than squads. This is especially true in the black and red powers. But even the blue and white as the both only have an attack of two and outside of a select few heroes, which are typically used as filler anyways, they will almost always roll more defense dice outside of any modifiers outside of what was already on the card.

[Porkachu]

I think the key is to limit both the number of wounds and the trigger for the power. There were some interesting powers involving D20's mentioned earlier, but it can be simplified.

Another concern, of course, is having the power be compatible with red and blue dice. The idea mentioned earlier of having the power be activated by skulls rolled, while innovative and highly sexy, is therefore impractical. And of course, no valkyrie dice; that would really just feel weird on a wyrmling.

Particularly interesting, to me at least, is the idea of making it an uncommon hero; but then you have the problem of tweaking it so that its not too bulky to really be considered a wyrmling.

I think the most elegant solution would be to tweak the re-rolling idea (Dok's?) so that the trigger is limited, but not dice-dependent.

Fledgeling Counterstrike
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent figure, if any excess shields are rolled, roll an attack die. If you roll a skull, the attacking figure receives a wound.

This way, we can give it high defense without much worry.

[master4sword]

Originally Posted by Porkachu

I think the key is to limit both the number of wounds and the trigger for the power. There were some interesting powers involving D20's mentioned earlier, but it can be simplified.

Another concern, of course, is having the power be compatible with red and blue dice. The idea mentioned earlier of having the power be activated by skulls rolled, while innovative and highly sexy, is therefore impractical. And of course, no valkyrie dice; that would really just feel weird on a wyrmling.

Particularly interesting, to me at least, is the idea of making it an uncommon hero; but then you have the problem of tweaking it so that its not too bulky to really be considered a wyrmling.

I think the most elegant solution would be to tweak the re-rolling idea (Dok's?) so that the trigger is limited, but not dice-dependent.

Fledgeling Counterstrike
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent figure, if any excess shields are rolled, roll an attack die. If you roll a skull, the attacking figure receives a wound.

This way, we can give it high defense without much worry.

My thought here is, if we're making a roll after getting excess shields to determine if it's going to counter, why an attack die and not a d20? Requiring an 11+ on a d20 roll is the same odds as rolling a single skull on one die, is more consistent with other powers, and can be modified by things that alter d20 rolls. There was mention earlier of rolling one attack die per excess shield, in which case the required roll would vary with how many extra shields were rolled, but if it's going to be just a single attack die no matter how many shields are rolled then I feel a d20 roll is more appropriate.

[dok]

Originally Posted by Porkachu

I think the most elegant solution would be to tweak the re-rolling idea (Dok's?) so that the trigger is limited, but not dice-dependent.

Fledgeling Counterstrike
When rolling defense dice against a normal attack from an adjacent figure, if any excess shields are rolled, roll an attack die. If you roll a skull, the attacking figure receives a wound.

This way, we can give it high defense without much worry.

I think Scytale floated that first, but I'm not sure.

dalu's idea of dropping the base defense does take the bite out of counterstrike, too, but I have a couple issues with that. First, it seems like a theme fail when compared with Charos, who has the highest defense of any of the dragons. Secondly, if the GW costs 30 instead of 35 we have to consider a LOT more 4th Mass builds when we're balancing them.

I do agree that a 70 point uncommon hero could work well, but I would like to see it fit cleanly with the other wyrmlings. To me, that would be more of a green young dragon than green wyrmling. Although given that the green wyrmling will probably be Icarian instead of from Eberron, it arguably doesn't matter if it fits well.

4 movement is a very interesting idea, and does fit well with Charos (the only 5 move dragon of the big ones). Definitely an idea worth considering.

At the moment, I like the idea of testing the Porkachu/Scytale idea, with 4A/4D/35 points, and maybe 4 move? Not sure.

As far as d20 vs. skull goes, I don't really care. Both ideas exist in the game already (poison sting uses a d20, Mortal Strike uses attack dice). One advantage of the d20, of course, is that we can dial it in much more precisely.

[TnT2]

So, I finally calculated the effect of blanks cancelling a counterstrike... Let me start by saying dok is correct. However, I think the numbers do tell an interesting tale.

Let's assume that we have a 4D defence. First off, let's look at the chance of counterstrike occurring. This table lists the probability of a counterstrike based on the number of attack dice

probablity
... normal......blanks cancel......reduction in chance
1A 60.49%......33.64%.............44.4%
2A 42.59%......25.31%.............40.6%
3A 29.63%......18.13%.............38.8%
4A 19.68%......12.50%.............37.5%

So, we see that if no blanks can be rolled to activate counterstrike, then the reduction is around 40%. And dok is correct, when counterstrike does occur against a high attack, it is not reduced by as much. However, the net chance is low.

But, more importantly, what is the average damage caused by counterstrike

damage done
... normal...blanks cancel......reduction in damage
1A 0.93.......0.56.................39.7%
2A 0.62.......0.39.................36.9%
3A 0.41.......0.27.................35.4%
4A 0.27.......0.18.................33.2%

About the same range of reduction in damage. But again, what is important is that we don't any huge anomalies.

I personally don't like rolling the d20. But that's just my opinion. Lot's of figures use it (microcorp, nakita, etc, etc).

As well, I like keeping the same essential mechanic as the parent dragon

[Shedim Kabal]

Fledgling Counter Strike
When this Green Wyrmling is attacked, if the attacker rolls no skulls, all shields count as unblockable hits on the attacking figure.

Disadvantage: Won't happen very often.

Advantages: Follows all the expected curves of Counter Strike; i.e. Higher attack means less odds of it happening, no penalty for more defense dice. No second die roll required. Can give the Wyrmling more defense without unbalancing it.

[Tiranx]

Originally Posted by Shedim Kabal

Fledgeling Counterstrike
When this Green Wyrmling is attacked, if the attacker rolls no skulls, all shields count as unblockable hits on the attacking figure.

Disadvantage: Won't happen very often.

Advantages: Follows all the expected curves of Counter Strike; i.e. Higher attack means less odds of it happening, no penalty for more defense dice. No second die roll required. Can give the Wyrmling more defense without unbalancing it.

This is my favorite version so far.

[ZBeeblebrox]

I actually like that version, and feel it will not over whelm squads.

Nice job.

[Shedim Kabal]

Originally Posted by Shedim Kabal

Fledgling Counter Strike
When this Green Wyrmling is attacked, if the attacker rolls no skulls, all shields count as unblockable hits on the attacking figure.

According to my Fledgling Counter Strike calculator:

Against 3 Attack
3 Defense = 8.764%
4 Defense = 10.138%
5 Defense = 10.815%
6 Defense = 11.436%
7 Defense = 11.739%
8 Defense = 12.021% (5 Base, Raelin, Height)