Simulating Cyprien's Demise

[Tiamat]

If there’s one figure that I dread looking across the table and seeing in my opponent’s army it’s Cyprien. I have great fear and respect for how quickly he can get across the table and for how much damage he can do. One thing that I have going for me is that I love Q10 and often end up having him in my army. As a soulborg, it seems to be conventional wisdom that Q10 is a good counter to Cyprien. But how good? What exactly does it take for Q10 to rid the board of Cyprien’s evil presence? And which of Q10’s many attack options are the best way to go? With these questions in mind I decided to run some simulations and see how the results looked. I realize that most (all?) of this information could probably be derived from the probability tables, the matchup calculator (does that thing still work?), or maybe even just plain old common sense, but I wanted to work through this as an exercise and for my own personal education. Also, I wanted to visualize the results when possible because I always find that to be an easier way to digest information as opposed to reading tables. (I don't think I have permission to post images, so all of the plots are available through links)

The first question I wanted to answer was what is my best attack option if I can’t get into range for wrist rockets? Cyprien is after all much more mobile than Q10, so this situation could present itself quite often. Should I go with Machine Pistol or try to get height and launch a normal attack from height?

Running 10,000 simulations with Machine Pistol gave the following outcomes shown below. About 33% of the time you’ll get nothing, 35% of the time you’ll get 1 damage, and 32% of the time you’ll get 2 or more damage through. If you’re interested in the chances of an ‘instakill’, we achieved 6 damage only 11 times out of the 10,000 attempts with machine pistol i.e. .11% (so you’re telling me there’s a chance!). Overall the average amount of damage done on Cyprien with Machine Pistol is 1.19.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iIh...ew?usp=sharing

Running 10,000 simulations with a normal attack (no height) gives the outcomes shown below. Average amount of damage was .94.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PBc...ew?usp=sharing

Running 10,000 simulations with a normal attack (with height) gives the outcomes shown below. Average amount of damage was 1.31.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18hS...ew?usp=sharing

Looking at the results all on one plot:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/16VA...ew?usp=sharing

So generally speaking, if you can’t get into range for Wrist Rockets and you can get height, go with the normal attack. If you can’t get height, or getting height presents other problems, you won’t lose much by going with Machine Pistol.

To me, perhaps the most useful piece of information here is that if Cyprien is at 1 life left, you can feel free to use Machine Pistol instead of the normal attack from height. You’re not decreasing your odds of killing him much at all, and if you get lucky and finish him off on the first shot, you can go after some other targets that are in range. It’s a fringe case, but could come in handy to know. Also could be relevant when thinking about going after squads that have 4 defense, but I think that’s probably a completely different thread to itself.

Now what if we assume that we can get into range for Wrist Rockets. Results below. Average damage done with Wrist Rockets is 1.84. Instakill chances up to 1.4% (I’m feeling lucky!).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIY...ew?usp=sharing

Adding Wrist Rocket data to the overall graph:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wkd...ew?usp=sharing

The next question I was interested in was how many turns would I need to take with Q10 in order to have a good chance of knocking off Cyprien completely? Again, running 10,000 simulations with each type of attack and this time counting up how many turns (aka attack phases) were needed before Cyprien bit the dust. Averages were: Machine Pistol 5.6 turns, Normal Attack (no height) 6.97 turns, Normal Attack (with height) 5.04 turns, and Wrist Rocket 3.75.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/13wT...ew?usp=sharing

It’s not surprising that Wrist Rockets come out on top, but what was a little surprising to me and important to know is the variance that was associated with each type of attack. The variances were:
Machine Pistol: 4.56
Normal (no height): 7.98
Normal (with height): 3.94
Wrist Rockets: 2.08

This is where I think we really see the added bonus for Wrist Rockets. Not only do you get the lowest average number of turns needed, but you really decrease the variance. This means that the 3.75 turns needed is pretty dependable, and you have to worry less about bad luck stretching that number into much greater numbers of turns needed ( not my most eloquent sentence, but hopefully you get the gist).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10yH...ew?usp=sharing

Ok, but we still haven’t considered one of Cyprien’s greatest assets which is his ability to life drain. What would happen to the number of turns needed to kill Cyprien if we gave him a 50/50 chance of regenerating 1 life point each turn?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jam...ew?usp=sharing

Yikes! I think the moral of the story here is that if you're trying to ping away at Cyprien while he is life draining, you're going to be waiting a long time to take him out. So generally speaking, you had better be going after him with Wrist Rockets most of the time our you're asking for trouble.

Alright, after all of that, I’m still as scared of Cyprien as ever. He's just a great figure who is really tough to take out even if you have a trusty soulborg at your side. If I’ve convinced myself of anything, it might just be that I should start putting Cyprien into my own armies more often.

[Astroking112]

Theoretically, I think that Major X17 is an amazing Cyprien counter. If you can lock him down with Improved Cyberclaw, the lack of Chilling Touch and relatively low base attack of 3 against a melee defense of 7 could very well keep him tied down for almost the entire game, stopping Cyprien from feeding or doing anymore damage.

Of course, then you'd have to take Major X17, though, and good luck catching an 8 move Stealth Flying vampire with that lumbering SoulBorg.

[Tiamat]

Originally Posted by Astroking112

Theoretically, I think that Major X17 is an amazing Cyprien counter. If you can lock him down with Improved Cyberclaw, the lack of Chilling Touch and relatively low base attack of 3 against a melee defense of 7 could very well keep him tied down for almost the entire game, stopping Cyprien from feeding or doing anymore damage.

Of course, then you'd have to take Major X17, though, and good luck catching an 8 move Stealth Flying vampire with that lumbering SoulBorg.

Yeah, I love everything about this strategy except the part where I have to include Major X17 in my army

[Astroking112]

Originally Posted by Tiamat

Yeah, I love everything about this strategy except the part where I have to include Major X17 in my army

For sure. It's great in theory to completely tie up Cyprien for the rest of the game, but I doubt that Major X17 will ever be able to reach him in the first place.

[NecroBlade]

Originally Posted by Astroking112

For sure. It's great in theory to completely tie up Cyprien for the rest of the game, but I doubt that Major X17 will ever be able to reach him in the first place.

Ride of the Valkyries intensifies

[OEAO]

Nice work! I'm always interested in seeing more math in HeroScape.

I don't love Q10 against Cyprien, because Cyprien can just opt out of the engagement and murder the rest of your army. The best way to deal with Cyp is massed commons to deal damage faster than he can either heal or deal his own damage.

[Tiamat]

Originally Posted by OrcElfArmyOne

Nice work! I'm always interested in seeing more math in HeroScape.

I don't love Q10 against Cyprien, because Cyprien can just opt out of the engagement and murder the rest of your army. The best way to deal with Cyp is massed commons to deal damage faster than he can either heal or deal his own damage.

This is good advice. I've read several articles on this forum that list Q10 and other Soulborgs as good counters to Cyprien. Of course, they are immune to Chilling Touch, so they don't have to worry so much about being attacked by Cyprien, but that really doesn't make them good counters. I like your advice, and this will be my approach the next time I run into him.

[Tornado]

Fun math. Run Morsbane next time.

[Tiamat]

Originally Posted by Tornado

Fun math. Run Morsbane next time.

I've yet to try running Morsbane. But I've been toying with the idea of running him in combination with Myrddin, who I just recently acquired. That could be a good counter, and might be able to wreak some real havoc if played properly.

[Astroking112]

Today I learned that Major X17 is Medium 5, not Large 6. Taking him and Theracus only costs 140, so you even save 10 points by tying up Cyprien for the rest of the game!

I don't know why there hasn't been a strategy article over this yet.

[NecroBlade]

Originally Posted by Astroking112

Today I learned that Major X17 is Medium 5, not Large 6. Taking him and Theracus only costs 140, so you even save 10 points by tying up Cyprien for the rest of the game!

I don't know why there hasn't been a strategy article over this yet.

I mean, this is one of the first comments in X17's Strategy Article thread.

[Astroking112]

Originally Posted by NecroBlade

I mean, this is one of the first comments in X17's Strategy Article thread.

I guess that I should read the Startegy Articles beforehand next time.