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Heroscape Strategy Articles Heroscape Strategy Articles with discussions. Including Order Markers, Units, Game Play, etc. |
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#49
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
I am wrong.
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Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 12:15 AM. |
#50
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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#51
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
Still way wrong.
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Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 12:15 AM. |
#52
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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However, assuming we take initiative out of the mix, that leaves you with 0.04375, quite a bit better. However, you also have 3 Retchets, not just one. So, that makes 3 attempts to roll 3 skulls 37.5%. So, that means you have a 0.13125% chance, without initiative. Halve that number with initiative. Thats not quite nearly as bad as 0.021875%. You are 6 times as likely to summon the Retchets and Lethal Sting somebody assuming initiative doesn't matter and with 3 Retchets than with initiative not guaranteed and with only one Retchet. |
#53
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
By Sisyphus and padlock's math below, I got this.
5.776367188% Quote:
Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 06:50 AM. |
#54
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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P(I) = Probability of winning initiative = 0.5 P(S) = Probability of summon = 7/20 = 0.35 P(A) = Probability of rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 0.5^ 3 = 0.125 P(~A) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 P(~B) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts = P(~A)^3 = 0.875^3 = 343/512 P(B) = Probability of not not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts (i.e. probability of rolling 3 skulls at least once) = 1 - P(~B) = 1 - 343/512 = 169/512 P(I)*P(S)*P(B) = Probability of winning initiative, then successfully summoning, and then lethal stinging at least one figure in three attempts = 0.05776 = 5.776%. Sisyphus' Probability Tables Tournament Director: Makes running a tournament easy. Latest Battle Report: Florida Frenzy 2 Last edited by Sisyphus; August 13th, 2009 at 11:32 PM. |
#55
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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Roll 14 or higher = .35 roll 3 skulls for 1 retchet = .5^3 = .125 roll 3 skulls with at least 1 of the 3 retchets = 1- (1 - .125) ^3) = .33 Total = .5 * .35 * .33 = .05775 or 5.775% |
#57
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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Sisyphus' Probability Tables Tournament Director: Makes running a tournament easy. Latest Battle Report: Florida Frenzy 2 |
#58
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
In the situation I am citing getting initiative was relevant. The first turn Summon/Lethal sting allowed my opponent to destroy a figure that had my 1 & 2 OM's on it. If I'd gone first I would have taken a turn with the figure in question. It may have even been out of range of the Retchets at that point...but maybe not. It was a narrow map, so there weren't a lot of place they could not get to.
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#59
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
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I'll get you next time! |
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