Sports: NCAA Basketball

[vegietarian18]

Deadline is this Thursday 3/14 at 11am Central time, before the games tip off.

[vegietarian18]

Tagging everyone who played last time who hasn't submitted yet. New players are welcome too. Submissions due Thursday morning before games start.

@Dysole @kevindola @Tornado @dok @superfrog

[superfrog]

Spoiler Alert!

11 Michigan 40
13 South Dakota State 20
13 Vermont 20
12 Indiana 30
5 Iowa 110
4 UCLA 120
11 Virginia Tech 40
8 North Carolina 50
10 Davidson 40
3 Tennessee 130
10 Loyola (IL) 40
3 Purdue 130
3 Texas Tech 130
8 San Diego State 50
9 Texas Christian 50

[vegietarian18]

Here's everyone's picks:

Chris Perkins

Spoiler Alert!

2 Duke 190
5 UConn 110
5 Saint Mary's 110
5 Iowa 110
6 LSU 100
6 Alabama 100
7 Murray State 80
10 Loyola Chicago 40
10 Miami 40
11 Michigan 40
12 UAB 30
11 Virginia Tech 40
15 Delaware 10

vegietarian18

Spoiler Alert!

Chattanooga 20
San Francisco 40
Miami (FL) 40
Texas Tech 130
Tennessee 130
Loyola (IL) 40
Purdue 130
Davidson 40
North Carolina 50
Iowa 110
Virginia Tech 40
Indiana/Wyoming 30
UCLA 120
Vermont 20
South Dakota State 20
Michigan 40

Yodaking 1

Spoiler Alert!

1 Seed Arizona = 250 points
3 Seed Wisconsin = 130 points
3 Seed Tex Tech = 130 points
3 Seed Purdue = 130 points
3 Seed TENN = 130 points

4 Seed Arkansas = 120 points
5 Seed Iowa = 110 points

Yodaking 2

Spoiler Alert!

15 Jax. St. = 10
13 S. DAK. ST = 20
13 Vermont = 20
13 Akron = 20
12 N. Mex. St. = 30
12 WYO/IND = 30
11 VTECH = 40
11 RUTG/ND = 40
11 Iowa St. = 40
10 Layola CHI = 40
10 Miami = 40
8 UNC = 50
7 Murry ST = 80
7 Mich ST = 80
6 COL ST = 100
5 HOU = 110
1 Gonzaga = 250

kevindola

Spoiler Alert!

40 #11 Michigan
40 #11 V Tech
30 #12 Indiana
250 #1 Kansas
190 #2 Villanova
130 #3 Texas Tech
130 #3 Purdue
40 #10 Loyola
40 #10 Miami
20 #13 Vermont
20 #13 Akron
20 #13 Chattanooga
20 #13 South Dakota State
30 #12 New Mexico State

Dysole

Spoiler Alert!

Wright State 16 10
Saint Peter's 15 10
Norfolk St. 16 10
J'ville State 15 10
Georgia St. 16 10
Delaware 15 10
CSU-Full. 15 10
Vermont 13 20
S. Dakota St. 13 20
Montana St. 14 20
Colgate 14 20
Chatt. 13 20
Akron 13 20
UAB 12 30
Richmond 12 30
Indiana 12 30
Virginia Tech 11 40
San Fran. 10 40
Notre Dame 11 40
Michigan 11 40
Miami 10 40
Loyola (IL) 10 40
Iowa State 11 40
Davidson 10 40
UNC 8 50
TCU 9 50
Seton Hall 8 50
SDSU 8 50
Memphis 9 50
Marquette 9 50
Creighton 9 50
Boise State 8 50

superfrog

Spoiler Alert!

11 Michigan 40
13 South Dakota State 20
13 Vermont 20
12 Indiana 30
5 Iowa 110
4 UCLA 120
11 Virginia Tech 40
8 North Carolina 50
10 Davidson 40
3 Tennessee 130
10 Loyola (IL) 40
3 Purdue 130
3 Texas Tech 130
8 San Diego State 50
9 Texas Christian 50

vegie dad

Spoiler Alert!

Iowa 110
Houston 110
Vermont 20
Auburn 190
Kentucky 190
UCLA 120
Gonzaga 250
Cal State Fullerton 10

vegie mom

Spoiler Alert!

Texas Tech- 130
Purdue- 130
UNC- 50
Kansas-250
Iowa Hawkeyes- 110
Illinois- 120
Wisconsin-130
Loyola- 40
Miami- 40

Scoring update in the spreadsheet HERE. Feel free to update with games as they happen.

Everyone brought more teams than they did last year except for Dysole. Dysole's upset squad is off to an early lead.

In second, superfrog and I are locked in an early game nailbiter as we control 900 points of the same teams. Our final 100 differs, with superfrog selecting SDSU and TCU, while I selected Miami, San Fransisco, and Chattanooga. Both San Fransisco and SDSU have already fallen, making the battle between me and superfrog come down to TCU vs. Miami and Chattanooga, which will most likely be decided this weekend.

vegie dad may be already eliminated after early defeats for Iowa and Kentucky. They were popular picks but he was the only to have both.

[vegietarian18]

Standings update:

Dysole 15
Yodaking 2 14
vegietarian18 13
kevindola 13
vegie mom 12
superfrog 12
Yodaking 10
Chris Perkins 8
vegie dad 7

There's a pretty tight battle going on at the top. Dysole holds the lead, but is running out of unique underdogs to build it with. Yodaking 2 trails Dysole by only 1 point, and has 3 of Dysole's 5 remaining underdogs, alongside Houston and Gonzaga, so he just needs Houston and Gonzaga to outperform Michigan and Saint Peter's to take control of the pool.

Kevindola and I are right behind Yodaking 2 with 13 points each. We don't have a ton of overlap with Dysole or YK outside of Miami and Michigan, but we do with each other, as we each brought Purdue and Texas Tech. If Texas Tech and Purdue do well, Kevin and I have a shot at reclaiming the lead. Kevin has other shots to win though, as he has his a lot of remaining points in powerhouses Kansas and Villanova, while I have mine in North Carolina and UCLA, who play each other next week.

Vegie Mom is right behind with 12 points, but likely needs an extremely specific scenario to win. She is another Purdue and Texas Tech picker, but has Kansas and UNC. She needs both Kansas and UNC to do well to pass me and kevin on separate routes.

superfrog also has 12 points, but he's permanently at least 1 point behind me as we share all remaining teams but he does not have Miami, so he cannot win.

Yodaking 1 has 10 points and probably some shots to win, with a decently unique remaining pool of Arizona, Texas Tech, Purdue, and Arkansas. He needs Dysole's underdogs to stop scoring fast though, as the existing 5 point gap could prove to be a lot.

Chris Perkins and vegie dad have 7 and 8 points, and I believe they are eliminated because they don't have enough unique points remaining to pass various people.

[Dysole]

Yeah I'm thinking the all upset strategy or closer to it is something that is gonna put you decently high up in the standings, but you're almost never going to win. We'll see if I deviate from it next year; since I don't pay attention to actual teams and just go off my spreadsheet numbers and don't think about it too hard odds are that might not be the case.

~Dysole, admittedly doing well for paying basically zero attention to NCAA basketball

[vegietarian18]

I think that's a fair assessment of the upset strategy. You reduce the variance of your score by quite a bit by having so many teams. Other strategies take more risk and may pick a few high cost teams that do poorly, but the odds of at least one person getting lucky and outperforming you is high. The underdogs have a fairly standard number of wins, probably somewhere around 15. They can skew either way by a few, but it's hard for them to roll high in the way other builds can. Yodaking's strategy of all underdogs and then the number one overall seed was very interesting.

[Yodaking]

Thanks again for letting me run 2 team ideas, I'm really interested in seeing how each one plays out. This year in particular I felt like their weren't any real dominate teams at the top and it could lead to some lower seed making a deep run. So I wanted to try and take a bunch of lower seeded teams I felt had a chance at getting a few wins. I included one favorite with that roster in hopes that one team made the finals and gave me a bunch of points to pad my point total. But that strategy runs the risk of having most of your team eliminated on the first weekend too. So I wanted to approach the 'no dominate top seeds' idea in a different way and take a bunch of 3-5 seeds as they are that next tier of teams that could take advantage of weakness at the top 2 spots for a final four run. Got a little lucky with some of my underdogs so that team is looking like it has a chance. The other team took a hit with one 5 and a pair of 3 seeds exiting earlier than I expected. I could still end up with two teams in the finals though from that team, so it has a chance as well.

[vegietarian18]

Update:
Dysole 18
Yodaking 2 17
kevindola 16
vegietarian18 15
vegie mom 15
superfrog 13
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 10
vegie dad 8

I believe it's a 4 man race now. Only Dysole, Yodaking 2, kevindola, and vegie mom have paths to victory. All four have Miami, so Miami's performance is irrelevant to all four of them.

Saint Peter's continuing their run keeps Dysole in the driver's seat. Dysole still holds a one game lead. Yodaking 2 is close behind, trailing by only 1 game, but lost Gonzaga since the last update. Yoda and Dysole both have Miami and North Carolina, so the Dysole vs. Yodaking battle all comes down to if Houston can win at least one more game than Saint Peter's.

Kevindola is two games behind Dysole. Kevindola has no UNC and no Saint Peter's, so Dysole is guaranteed at least one point on kevindola via the Midwest regional final. Kevindola does have Villanova and Kansas, but time for points is running out. kevindola needs Villanova and Kansas combined to win 3 more games than the winner of UNC/Saint Peter's wins. Kansas and Villanova only have the potential to win 4 more games total, so he needs them to go 3/4 for Saint Peter's/UNC to be eliminated as soon as possible.

vegie mom has a very thin path to victory, but it exists. She shares UNC and Miami with Dysole, and has Kansas. If Kansas wins the title and Saint Peter's loses to UNC, she'll make up the three points on Dysole and score 1 on kevin. She has alternate specific scenarios surrounding the result of the Villanova/Houston game, which will make either kevin or Yodaking more of a threat.

[Yodaking]

I'm cheering for St. Pete's to win it all now, so I guess I'm rooting for Dysole. Would be a great story if it happens.

[vegietarian18]

With Houston's defeat, Yodaking was eliminated from first place contention as he cannot score any points that Dysole cannot. Scenarios are now very small. Kevindola is guaranteed at least one more point, by having both Kansas and Villanova.

Dysole 19
Yodaking 2 18
kevindola 18
vegie mom 17
vegietarian18 16
superfrog 14
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 11
vegie dad 8

If Kansas beats North Carolina in championship game, vegie mom wins.

If North Carolina wins the championship game, regardless of opponent, Dysole wins.

In all other scenarios, kevindola wins.

[vegietarian18]

Dysole 20
vegie mom 19
Yodaking 2 19
kevindola 19
vegietarian18 17
superfrog 15
Yodaking 11
Chris Perkins 11
vegie dad 8

Standing update. Only two scenarios remain. If Kansas wins, vegie mom gains her 20th point, winning tiebreaker over Dysole via having the national champion, and tiebreaker over kevindola via having national runner-up. If UNC wins, Dysole hangs on with a 1 point win.