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  #49  
Old August 13th, 2009, 10:18 PM
Bonecrusher Bonecrusher is offline
 
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

I am wrong.

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Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 12:15 AM.
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  #50  
Old August 13th, 2009, 10:32 PM
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

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Originally Posted by Bonecrusher View Post
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Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (50%) (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (35%) (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure (12.5%)?
0.021875%.
So, the outcome is roughly one in five thousand?


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  #51  
Old August 13th, 2009, 10:42 PM
Bonecrusher Bonecrusher is offline
 
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Still way wrong.

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Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 12:15 AM.
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  #52  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:12 PM
Warlord Alpha Warlord Alpha is offline
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonecrusher View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (50%) (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (35%) (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure (12.5%)?
0.021875%.
So, the outcome is roughly one in five thousand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonecrusher View Post
Actually it is exactly 7 out of every 32000. But yes, roughly.

However, assuming we take initiative out of the mix, that leaves you with 0.04375, quite a bit better. However, you also have 3 Retchets, not just one. So, that makes 3 attempts to roll 3 skulls 37.5%. So, that means you have a 0.13125% chance, without initiative. Halve that number with initiative. Thats not quite nearly as bad as 0.021875%. You are 6 times as likely to summon the Retchets and Lethal Sting somebody assuming initiative doesn't matter and with 3 Retchets than with initiative not guaranteed and with only one Retchet.
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  #53  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:21 PM
Bonecrusher Bonecrusher is offline
 
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

By Sisyphus and padlock's math below, I got this.

5.776367188%

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Last edited by Bonecrusher; August 14th, 2009 at 06:50 AM.
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  #54  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:22 PM
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure?
5.776%, so approximately the chance of rolling a 20 on the D20.

P(I) = Probability of winning initiative = 0.5
P(S) = Probability of summon = 7/20 = 0.35
P(A) = Probability of rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 0.5^ 3 = 0.125
P(~A) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875
P(~B) = Probability of not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts = P(~A)^3 = 0.875^3 = 343/512
P(B) = Probability of not not rolling 3 skulls on 3 attack die in 3 attempts (i.e. probability of rolling 3 skulls at least once) = 1 - P(~B) = 1 - 343/512 = 169/512

P(I)*P(S)*P(B) = Probability of winning initiative, then successfully summoning, and then lethal stinging at least one figure in three attempts = 0.05776 = 5.776%.

Last edited by Sisyphus; August 13th, 2009 at 11:32 PM.
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  #55  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:24 PM
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure?
Get initiative = .5
Roll 14 or higher = .35
roll 3 skulls for 1 retchet = .5^3 = .125
roll 3 skulls with at least 1 of the 3 retchets = 1- (1 - .125) ^3) = .33

Total = .5 * .35 * .33 = .05775 or 5.775%
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  #56  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:26 PM
Warlord Alpha Warlord Alpha is offline
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

nevermind, I seem to have failed. See what summer has done to me?

Last edited by Warlord Alpha; August 13th, 2009 at 11:39 PM.
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  #57  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:43 PM
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Sisyphus Sisyphus is offline
 
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Quote:
Originally Posted by padlock View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure?
Get initiative = .5
Roll 14 or higher = .35
roll 3 skulls for 1 retchet = .5^3 = .125
roll 3 skulls with at least 1 of the 3 retchets = 1- (1 - .125) ^3) = .33

Total = .5 * .35 * .33 = .05775 or 5.775%
You've got to work quick around here.
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  #58  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:56 PM
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CheddarLimbo CheddarLimbo is offline
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

In the situation I am citing getting initiative was relevant. The first turn Summon/Lethal sting allowed my opponent to destroy a figure that had my 1 & 2 OM's on it. If I'd gone first I would have taken a turn with the figure in question. It may have even been out of range of the Retchets at that point...but maybe not. It was a narrow map, so there weren't a lot of place they could not get to.


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  #59  
Old August 13th, 2009, 11:57 PM
padlock padlock is offline
 
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisyphus View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by padlock View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheddarLimbo View Post
Could someone help me calculate the odds of an outcome?

What is the probability someone will (a) get initiative (b) roll a 14 or higher to summon Retchets with Iskra, and the (c) roll all skulls on a 3 die attack to Lethal Sting a figure?
Get initiative = .5
Roll 14 or higher = .35
roll 3 skulls for 1 retchet = .5^3 = .125
roll 3 skulls with at least 1 of the 3 retchets = 1- (1 - .125) ^3) = .33

Total = .5 * .35 * .33 = .05775 or 5.775%
You've got to work quick around here.
No fair. You edited your post to show your work only after I posted mine

I'll get you next time!
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  #60  
Old August 14th, 2009, 12:01 AM
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CheddarLimbo CheddarLimbo is offline
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Re: Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)

So, wait. Now I'm confused. Which is it? One in 5,000 or 1 in 20?


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