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  #1  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 03:53 PM
cosmosis cosmosis is offline
 
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Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Same?

So we were playing a team game the other night, and the other team was coordinating their moves by talking about which units to attack what and how the one attack die from the Omnicron's attack was the same as attacking with 2 dice from a non-deadly shot character (I forget what it was, I think it was a 10th Regiment of Foot that could not use either of its wait then fire or bayonet attack). It made sense at the time that the two attacks were the same, but then I thought about it some more and realized that they were a bit different, and wanted to share this with those who did not already think of this on their own.

So the purpose of this post is to discuss how deadly shot/strike compares with a normal attack with twice the amount of dice. It would be easier to illustrate my thoughts with more extreme numbers, specifically minimums.

Anyway, here goes.

So let's deal with 1 dice deadly and 2 dice regular:

Now, it is pretty obvious that both these attacks average 1 hit, so they must be the same, right?

Well let's take a closer look at the numbers:

With 1 dice deadly, there's 2 possible outcomes:

0 Skulls - 0 hits: 1/2 = 50%
1 skull - 2 hits: 1/2 = 50%
The average is 1 hit, though the actual possible outcomes are more towards the extreme ends.

With 2 dice regular, there's 3 possible outcomes:

0 skulls - 0 hits: 1/4 = 25%
1 skull - 1 hit: 1/2 = 50%
2 skulls - 2 hits: 1/4 = 25%
Again, the average is 1 hit, though there is middling allowed.

So what?
Well, let's talk specifically against Hatamoto Taro's Adjacent Tough 1 and the Gorillinators' Tough abilities. With them always getting a guaranteed 1 shield, you need to roll 2 hits to even have a chance at getting through, so for a deadly shot/strike that's 50%, whereas an "equivalent" regular has 25%.

So deadly shot/strike is always better than regular, right? I mean especially with all the possibilities of height/Taelord/Finn & Gilbert (Minions only) giving an effective +2 rather than +1, right?

Well, let's take another look from the opposite angle to see if this is true.

Let's say our guys are going up against Venoc Vipers, with their amazing 0 defense...
Here, the Deadly Shot/Strike only has a 50% chance of killing, whereas the "equivalent" regular has a better 75%!

So what's the moral of the story?
Well, basically the deadly shot/strike will give more extreme values and are better used when you need to do more damage, but has a higher chance of doing less damage. The "equivalent" regular does damage closer to the expected average. So this is nice to keep in mind when dealing with different defenses. I would say, if facing higher/guaranteed defense, go with the deadly, but for lower defense go with regular. Of course the stakes are raised even higher when counterstrike/evil eye defense comes into effect, so be sure you have an idea of what the possible and percentage of outcomes will be!

I think this should be true for higher dice amounts than 1 deadly vs. 2 regular. Hmm, I really hope I did the numbers right, enjoy!

PS Since we're on the matter of dice rolling, be sure to remember to roll only 1 attack dice each time when attacking the Krav from range using Major Q9's Queglix Gun! (You can figure out why on your own!)

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Last edited by cosmosis; July 23rd, 2008 at 04:16 PM. Reason: Thanks Rifier_Ace for the counterstrike reminder!
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  #2  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:03 PM
Rifier_Ace Rifier_Ace is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Yeah, you are getting the gist of it. That is just about how it works. For me when I am rolling one die for deadly shot, I favor it when I am going up against units with three or more defense. When rolling two or more attack for deadly shot/strike. I favor it over a normal of four in all cases except when rolling against a unit with counterstrike. Nice little article.
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  #3  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:14 PM
cosmosis cosmosis is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rifier_Ace View Post
Yeah, you are getting the gist of it. That is just about how it works. For me when I am rolling one die for deadly shot, I favor it when I am going up against units with three or more defense. When rolling two or more attack for deadly shot/strike. I favor it over a normal of four in all cases except when rolling against a unit with counterstrike. Nice little article.
Oh wow. I forgot about counterstrike. I'll definitely add a bit about that in my article for now and probably make it nicer later.

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  #4  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:16 PM
Onacara Onacara is offline
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

As far as probability goes I believe you have the same chance of rolling all 3 outcomes with 2 dice.

Now if you are talking to the probability of inflicting any wounds then you do have a greater probability of doing it with 2 dice as oppossed to 1 since your odds would go from 1 in 2 chance to a 2 in 3 chance.
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:25 PM
cosmosis cosmosis is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onacara View Post
As far as probability goes I believe you have the same chance of rolling all 3 outcomes with 2 dice.

Now if you are talking to the probability of inflicting any wounds then you do have a greater probability of doing it with 2 dice as oppossed to 1 since your odds would go from 1 in 2 chance to a 2 in 3 chance.
Well with three dice, the 4 possible outcomes are:
1) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 0 skulls
2) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 1 skull
3) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 1 skull
4) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 2 skulls

This, I'm pretty sure, I have got right!

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  #6  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:25 PM
Rifier_Ace Rifier_Ace is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

I also should have added that when I was comparing one die with deadly shot. I was comparing it to a normal two die attack.

Also for anyone who was wondering. The probability of rolling with deadly strike with two dice is:
1. Rolling two skulls on two dice is 25%. Equaling four skulls w/ deadly strike.
2. Rolling one skull on two dice is 50%. Equaling two skulls w/ deadly strike.
3. Rolling no skulls on two dice is 25%.

The probabilities for rolling four dice w/o deadly strike is:
1. Rolling four skulls on four dice is 12.5%.
2. Rolling three skulls on four dice is 25%.
3. Rolling two skulls on four dice is 50%.
4 Rolling one skull on four dice is 25%.
5. Rolling no skulls on four dice is 12.5%.

So deadly strike produces more extreme results. While rolling normal dice produces a wider array of results. That produce more balanced results.

Last edited by Rifier_Ace; July 23rd, 2008 at 04:37 PM.
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:36 PM
Onacara Onacara is offline
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmosis View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onacara View Post
As far as probability goes I believe you have the same chance of rolling all 3 outcomes with 2 dice.

Now if you are talking to the probability of inflicting any wounds then you do have a greater probability of doing it with 2 dice as oppossed to 1 since your odds would go from 1 in 2 chance to a 2 in 3 chance.
Well with three dice, the 4 possible outcomes are:
1) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 0 skulls
2) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 1 skull
3) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 1 skull
4) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 2 skulls

This, I'm pretty sure, I have got right!

You are right but the probability of rolling the outcome per die is the same if you do not specify the dice as being separate. Each die gives you a 50% chance of rolling a skull. So there are only 3 final outcomes.

no skulls
1 skull
2 skulls
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  #8  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 04:42 PM
cosmosis cosmosis is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onacara View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmosis View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onacara View Post
As far as probability goes I believe you have the same chance of rolling all 3 outcomes with 2 dice.

Now if you are talking to the probability of inflicting any wounds then you do have a greater probability of doing it with 2 dice as oppossed to 1 since your odds would go from 1 in 2 chance to a 2 in 3 chance.
Well with three dice, the 4 possible outcomes are:
1) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 0 skulls
2) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: No Skull = 1 skull
3) Dice 1: No Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 1 skull
4) Dice 1: Skull, Dice 2: Skull = 2 skulls

This, I'm pretty sure, I have got right!

You are right but the probability of rolling the outcome per die is the same if you do not specify the dice as being separate. Each die gives you a 50% chance of rolling a skull. So there are only 3 final outcomes.

no skulls
1 skull
2 skulls
Ah, but you DO specify them as being separate, since they are in fact two different dice. Imagine one is a Jandar valkyrie dice and the other an Utgar one.

It is true that there are 3 final outcomes, but the 1 skull outcome has 2 ways to occur, so it is 50% and the other two are 25%.

Each dice has a 50% outcome is true, but you must multiply probabilities of 50% times 50% for both to be true (in this case both skulls or both no skulls).

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  #9  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 05:17 PM
Dualahorn Dualahorn is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Deadly shot is more dangerous when you have height advantage. Zetecron on height is very deadly.
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 07:36 PM
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Sisyphus Sisyphus is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

You can go the my probability tables in my sig to compare the affects of double strike vs. rolling 2x attack dice among other things.
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  #11  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 09:50 PM
cosmosis cosmosis is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dualahorn View Post
Deadly shot is more dangerous when you have height advantage. Zetecron on height is very deadly.
Yup, because it's an effective +2 for height (and any other attack die bonus). I did mention that somewhere in my first post, but I'd rather the focus of this post be on when neither has height advantage, since it is pretty obvious that height advantage'd deadly shot/strike is superior to height advantage'd regular.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisyphus View Post
You can go the my probability tables in my sig to compare the affects of double strike vs. rolling 2x attack dice among other things.
Ah, your tables are very nice. What about things like Shields of Jandar vs. Double Strike?

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Old July 23rd, 2008, 10:29 PM
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Sisyphus Sisyphus is offline
 
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Re: Deadly Shot/Strike vs. Regular Attack w/ double dice. Sa

Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmosis View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sisyphus View Post
You can go the my probability tables in my sig to compare the affects of double strike vs. rolling 2x attack dice among other things.
Ah, your tables are very nice. What about things like Shields of Jandar vs. Double Strike?
Some people can never be satisfied. In such a match up each shield counts as two blocks and each skull counts as two hits so it is the same as if neither Shields of Jandar nor Double Strike are in effect. So a Minion attacking a Sentinel is the same as an attack 2 figure attacking a defense 4 figure.
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