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  #721  
Old October 26th, 2022, 02:30 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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Originally Posted by rudyvalentine View Post
I have never considered Heroscape to be a comparable game system to these other hobby miniatures games mentioned here, but this is certainly a new age. I just donít believe itís going to translate to attracting a similar gamer with its streamlined rule set and theme.

So itís going to cost as much as all the other miniatures games now and itís not going to have the same accessibility that it did in the past in being mass market priced and available in a toy aisle next to monopoly and trivial pursuit.

Thatís ok I guess, gaming has certainly evolved in the last 15 years. But I still feel they may have misread their audience for this. They wanted to make something special and thatís going to be expensive. But they could have also had something more in line with itís cheaper roots thatís still fully playable and gets people into the system. Those terrain boards in Arena of the Planeswalkers were great for setting up a quick battlefield. Add some plastic terrain and a wall or two and youíve got a perfectly serviceable battlefield. Throw in enough units to make a couple armies and price it to try to get some more people on board.

X-Wingís starter set it pretty slim but it gives just enough to play the game and once you play and see the potential the system has with new ships and abilities youíre ready to go spend some more money.

That's interesting, I suppose a cheaper set could have included some boards like from AOTP to keep the cost down, and if someone wants a full set of terrain then they could get the vanguard edition, or a terrain tier (that certainly should have been offered).



I agree with them that they needed to price a set around $250 in order to provide something that feels substantial, but that doesn't mean they couldn't offer a smaller set that everyone just understands is only meant as an entry point

Me when I roll zero shields with Deathwalker 9000:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6-teNJoMrX4
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  #722  
Old October 26th, 2022, 02:31 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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Originally Posted by brak88 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by My Darling Panzer View Post
So is there anything drastic in the works that they're planning (like adding tiers, marketing with influencers, etc.)? Because if not, reaching even the min backers isn't looking too bright
Nothing stated beyond making a video with "some people cooler than us." Whatever that means.
Yeah I heard about that along with Bat's mentioning of the 23 points in that video interview. I think the momentum has been lost as we haven't heard anything this week. I'm quite surprised that nothing seemingly more was planned to continue to drive excitement, and it needs to ramp up. They certainly did very well IMHO with the drawing reveals for weeks.
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  #723  
Old October 26th, 2022, 04:16 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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Originally Posted by My Darling Panzer View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by brak88 View Post
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Originally Posted by My Darling Panzer View Post
So is there anything drastic in the works that they're planning (like adding tiers, marketing with influencers, etc.)? Because if not, reaching even the min backers isn't looking too bright
Nothing stated beyond making a video with "some people cooler than us." Whatever that means.
Yeah I heard about that along with Bat's mentioning of the 23 points in that video interview. I think the momentum has been lost as we haven't heard anything this week. I'm quite surprised that nothing seemingly more was planned to continue to drive excitement, and it needs to ramp up. They certainly did very well IMHO with the drawing reveals for weeks.

Yeah I think they should have continued daily reveals all throughout the Haslab to keep people checking back in for new information. That would help keep the excitement higher. Showing a new card or two each day all throughout the Haslab, plus designs for future figures and terrain, would have been smart

Me when I roll zero shields with Deathwalker 9000:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6-teNJoMrX4
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  #724  
Old October 26th, 2022, 04:25 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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  #725  
Old October 26th, 2022, 05:45 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

So just to clarify on the OP:

-After the first few days a linear fit predicted AoA WILL FUND
-The OP stated this prediction
-Recently, the linear trend predicted AoA WILL NOT FUND
-OP was changed to reflect this
-Trendline was changed from a linear fit to a polynomial fit, which predicts AoA WILL FUND
-The OP has not yet been changed to reflect this

I'm not a data scientist. I appreciate the discussion and the people putting these skills forward. But it seems like these predictions are pretty whimsical.
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  #726  
Old October 26th, 2022, 05:48 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryguy266 View Post
So just to clarify on the OP:

-After the first few days a linear fit predicted AoA WILL FUND
-The OP stated this prediction
-Recently, the linear trend predicted AoA WILL NOT FUND
-OP was changed to reflect this
-Trendline was changed from a linear fit to a polynomial fit, which predicts AoA WILL FUND
-The OP has not yet been changed to reflect this

I'm not a data scientist. I appreciate the discussion and the people putting these skills forward. But it seems like these predictions are pretty whimsical.
Trying to predict the future with math is often whimsical (particularly when you have incomplete/bad data).

An accurate predictive model would be one that is "trained" on other projects to generate an idea of which projects succeed and which fail. No such model exists--there has only been *one* other boardgame on HasLab and in addition to it being different from this campaign in myriad ways, we also don't have the data for how backer counts changed over time. So there's no way to build a truly accurate model. Just various degrees of inaccurate models. A polynomial model is probably more accurate than a linear one. Maybe.

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  #727  
Old October 26th, 2022, 06:32 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

From this reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Heroquest/c..._to_go_pledge/

Here are the numbers for the first 42 days of the HeroQuest campaign. It ended up at $3,721,000 at the end of day 45.

"The overall breakdown for the Haslab crowdfunding daily numbers are as follows:

Day 1: $1,000,000 (actually hit 1 million 30min before 24 hours)

Day 2: $267,000 in Sales

Day 3: $151,000 in Sales

Day 4: $102,000 in Sales

Day 5: $65,000 in Sales

Day 6: $52,500 in Sales

Day 7: $39,698 in Sales

Day 8: $43,647 in Sales

Day 9: $38,097 in Sales

Day 10: $34,048 in Sales

Day 11: $26,248 in Sales

Day 12: $24,049 in Sales

Day 13: $21,848 in Sales

Day 14: $20,448 in Sales

Day 15: $15,799 in Sales

Day 16: $19,899 in Sales

Day 17: $134,741 in Sales

Day 18: $25,445 in Sales

Day 19: $19,599 in Sales

Day 20: $17,949 in Sales

Day 21: $15,399 in Sales

Day 22: $14,049 in Sales

Day 23: $198,837 in Sales Total sales as of Day 23: $2,347,191

Day 24: (day missed)

Day 25: (day missed)

Day 26: (total for 24, 25 and 26 = $53,809) to total at $2,401,000

Day 27: $17,836 in Sales Total of $2,418,836 as of 7pm GMT-4

Day 28: $14,899 in sales Total of $2,433,735 as of 7pm GMT-4

Day 29: $63,646 in sales Total of $2,497,381 as of 8:15PM

Day 30: $46,297 in sales Total of $2,543,678 as of 8:25PM

Day 31: $18,049 in sales Total of $2,561,727 as of 8:25PM

Day 32: $17,848 in sales Total of $2,579,575 as of 8:25PM GMT -4

Day 33: $12,950 in sales Total of $2,592,525 as of 8:25PM

Day 34: $16,646 in sales Total of $2,609,171 as of 8:25PM

Day 35: $20,801 in sales Total of $2,629,972 as of 8:25PM

Day 36: $28,648 in sales Total of $2,658,620 as of 8:25PM

Day 37: $97,943 in sales Total of $2,756,563 as of 8:25PM

Day 38: $36,447 in sales Total of $2,793,010 as of 8:49pm

Day 39: $30,398 in sales total of $2,823,408 as of 8:25PM

Day 40: $46,197 in sales total of $2,869,605 Pledged as of 8:25PM

Day 41: $76,495 in sales total of $2,946,100 pledged as of 8:25PM

Day 42: $109,343K in Sales total of $3,055,443 pledged as of 8:30PM"
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  #728  
Old October 26th, 2022, 06:44 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hogg View Post
From this reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Heroquest/c..._to_go_pledge/

Here are the numbers for the first 42 days of the HeroQuest campaign. It ended up at $3,721,000 at the end of day 45.

"The overall breakdown for the Haslab crowdfunding daily numbers are as follows:

Day 1: $1,000,000 (actually hit 1 million 30min before 24 hours)

Day 2: $267,000 in Sales

Day 3: $151,000 in Sales

Day 4: $102,000 in Sales

Day 5: $65,000 in Sales

Day 6: $52,500 in Sales

Day 7: $39,698 in Sales

Day 8: $43,647 in Sales

Day 9: $38,097 in Sales

Day 10: $34,048 in Sales

Day 11: $26,248 in Sales

Day 12: $24,049 in Sales

Day 13: $21,848 in Sales

Day 14: $20,448 in Sales

Day 15: $15,799 in Sales

Day 16: $19,899 in Sales

Day 17: $134,741 in Sales

Day 18: $25,445 in Sales

Day 19: $19,599 in Sales

Day 20: $17,949 in Sales

Day 21: $15,399 in Sales

Day 22: $14,049 in Sales

Day 23: $198,837 in Sales Total sales as of Day 23: $2,347,191

Day 24: (day missed)

Day 25: (day missed)

Day 26: (total for 24, 25 and 26 = $53,809) to total at $2,401,000

Day 27: $17,836 in Sales Total of $2,418,836 as of 7pm GMT-4

Day 28: $14,899 in sales Total of $2,433,735 as of 7pm GMT-4

Day 29: $63,646 in sales Total of $2,497,381 as of 8:15PM

Day 30: $46,297 in sales Total of $2,543,678 as of 8:25PM

Day 31: $18,049 in sales Total of $2,561,727 as of 8:25PM

Day 32: $17,848 in sales Total of $2,579,575 as of 8:25PM GMT -4

Day 33: $12,950 in sales Total of $2,592,525 as of 8:25PM

Day 34: $16,646 in sales Total of $2,609,171 as of 8:25PM

Day 35: $20,801 in sales Total of $2,629,972 as of 8:25PM

Day 36: $28,648 in sales Total of $2,658,620 as of 8:25PM

Day 37: $97,943 in sales Total of $2,756,563 as of 8:25PM

Day 38: $36,447 in sales Total of $2,793,010 as of 8:49pm

Day 39: $30,398 in sales total of $2,823,408 as of 8:25PM

Day 40: $46,197 in sales total of $2,869,605 Pledged as of 8:25PM

Day 41: $76,495 in sales total of $2,946,100 pledged as of 8:25PM

Day 42: $109,343K in Sales total of $3,055,443 pledged as of 8:30PM"
Thanks for sharing

Do we know what happened on day 23?

Me when I roll zero shields with Deathwalker 9000:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6-teNJoMrX4
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  #729  
Old October 26th, 2022, 07:51 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Anyone know what happened on day one? We got like $350k that day. A third of the backing with twice the goal. I think that’s why folks started dismaying right away.

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  #730  
Old October 26th, 2022, 07:56 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmBatman View Post
Anyone know what happened on day one? We got like $350k that day. A third of the backing with twice the goal. I think thatís why folks started dismaying right away.
Double the goal of heroquest was crazy to me
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  #731  
Old October 26th, 2022, 09:29 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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RUNA DID NOTHING WRONG

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Last edited by Shurrig; October 26th, 2022 at 11:47 PM.
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  #732  
Old October 27th, 2022, 02:58 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

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Originally Posted by IAmBatman View Post
Anyone know what happened on day one? We got like $350k that day. A third of the backing with twice the goal. I think thatís why folks started dismaying right away.
US & Canada release only with an all in approach and total opposite of original game concept (accesible: cheap & prepainted).
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