North Korea Nuclear Test

[Chimpy]

Has anyone been paying attention to the North Korea nuclear test updates? It seems that the relative peace in the orient is about to leave. Here is a news link: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...est/index.html

[Venom]

yeah, i saw that and was gonna post it, but figured someone else would. WW3 is getting alot closer than ever.

[Mr. Underhill]

Yeah, I saw a newsflash this morning about the apparent testing of a nuclear device by N. Korea.

Pak Myong-guk, an official at the North's embassy in Australia who described his title as minister, said: "It is not provocative, it is just the corresponding measure for defence, for us to defend ourselves. It is the really essential process for nuclear deterrent."

Source: Al Jazeera

It's a hard thing to condem when other lots of other countries have been testing nuclear weapons. France tested theirs in the south pacific - not even anywhere remotely near their own coutnry! The United Kingdom tested theirs in Australia.

I'm not condoning the actions of North Korea - no one needs nuclear weapons, but it's hard for countries who have stockpiles of weapons to pontificate to the North Koreans on this matter.

A sad day, none-the-less.

Jamie

[Euryon]

The reason we can pontificate is because of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, from which North Korea withdrew a couple years back (which is an act of aggression in itself).

N. Korea signed the treaty, and then broke it. This is the only functional argument that is held against Iran aswell (all else really is pontification).

However, on a practical side. War in the Middle East is dodgy and difficult because of lots of support against it amongst arabic populations worldwide, a sense of injustice (with the WMD lies/mistakes), vast amounts of insurgency, and so on.

N. Korea's staunchest ally, China, made a very explicit slap-on-the-wrists following the test this morning. If N.Korea want to party, the UN will almost certainly give the green light straight away. The people of N.Korea are almost certainly not truly happy living in the fantasy world of Communist Korea - every nightmare about a communist dystopia is *allegedly* true there.

It wouldnt be WW3, also, because it's almost impossible for N.Korea to possess any truly high-yield weapons actually capable of reaching anywhere other than S.Korea or China - even then it would probably be dropped by plane, and you know every air force in the world is gonna be on high alert to intercept anything remotely naughty leaving Korea over the next couple years.

However, it is very bad for international diplomacy as it does give the terrorist factions something to sing and dance about - but in over-all trouble scale, I very much doubt we'd see a land war of significance. The people are unlikely to become insurgents or guerillas - maybe a small cohort of the army might remain loyal, even under overwhelming opposition; but I think war with N Korea would be a true liberation (at first, at least) as opposed to a Vietnam situation we see in the Middle East.

The best way to beat the modern day Ism's, it seems, is to let them stay in power for a while till the people don't have the heart anymore, then wipe 'em out.

[Mr. Underhill]

Originally Posted by Euryon

The reason we can pontificate is because of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, from which North Korea withdrew a couple years back (which is an act of aggression in itself).

Devil's Advocate Warning

To their credit, the North Koreans signed the treaty and then withdrew. Whilst other parties to the treaty (including the U.S.) pay lip-service to the agreement and simply breach it in underhanded ways.

Off the topic:
As for Iran, IMHO they should be given the benefit of the doubt as far as developing nuclear energy.


J

[Euryon]

Fair point, Mr.Advocate

I disagree about benefit of the doubt. If it's poorly founded, the worlds in big trouble. However, many of the compromise offers already made (Russia hosting/controlling nuclear power stations etc) seem more than reasonable if Iran really does just want nuclear power.
Also, if its so desperate for large amounts of non-fossil fuel, as a rich trade nation, it could easily invest in sustainable energies - wether GM ethanol or "green" energy. Much better long term investment, and would have a positive diplomatic impact, and probably give them far more international clout.

[Mr. Underhill]

Originally Posted by Euryon

I disagree about benefit of the doubt. If it's poorly founded, the worlds in big trouble.

Can't argue with that.

Personally, I'd much rather not use nuclear or fossil fuels at all. I heard on the radio the other day that (?) Brazil have a viable sugar cane industry that supports 100% ethanol vehicles.

Getting back on topic:
It'll be interesting to see the developments in the coming days/weeks in respect to international response to the N. Korean nuclear test. I don't see the WW3 being much more than a scare-mongering tactic by certain sections of the right. I mean, N. Korea has had nukes for some time now, so this is nothing new.


J

[Venom]

Ok, but what about this? Iran is now an ally of Venezuela, who is ally with Cuba. They all hate the U.S. You remember when Chavez, President of Venezuela, called Bush "The Devil" at the UN, the reaction of everyone there? I'm not gonna get any more political about this, but many countries are starting to despise us more than ever.

[Grungebob]

Originally Posted by Venom

Ok, but what about this? Iran is now an ally of Venezuela, who is ally with Cuba. They all hate the U.S. You remember when Chavez, President of Venezuela, called Bush "The Devil" at the UN, the reaction of everyone there? I'm not gonna get any more political about this, but many countries are starting to despise us more than ever.

Well, in the case of Venezuela they have much reason to hate bush. The failed political coup of April 11th 2002 that was embarrassingly and openly backed by the US and Bush is the MAIN cause.

[Mr. Underhill]

Originally Posted by Venom

You remember when Chavez, President of Venezuela, called Bush "The Devil" at the UN.

What? You mean he's not?

I also don't want to get political here either. I'm not a fan of U.S. foreign policy, and I try to keep my political views to myself in this forum - not just because the majority of active users are from the U.S., but also because it's not my area of expertise. I do, however, enjoy a good debate. And, I also enjoy hearing alternative views and ideas which are in opposition to my own - I like to be challenged - and more often than not I also find myself learning things I never new before.

J

[Euryon]

Calling Venezuela, Iran and Cuba allies is tenuous. They have affiliation and trade deals, and Chavez has said he backs Iran "all the way"; but a lot of this really is anti-Bush rhetoric.

Chavez is also in for some trying times on home soil - his majority has always been easy due to bickering amongst rivals, who have now conceded and allow a single opponent to Chavez; maybe (probably) not enough to topple him, but enough to give him pause for thought instead of running around thinking he owns Venezuela. He's eccentric and not politically savvy, but he's a pretty decent leftie, as far as they go.

The most likely trouble for the US in the immediate future (next 20 years) is massvie economic deterioratoin. What the Middle east and South American countries, especially all the OPEC nations, will do is stifle, undermine and out produce America; many nations (ME and SA) have already changed their global currency from the US Dollar to the Euro, which is having massive impact on the imp/exp economy of the US, not to mention the strength of the dollar.

The US will be forced, eventually, to revert to being isolationist again - unless its foreign policy changes in the second and third world countries. An isolationist America will end up being good for Americans - unless Immigration continues at its current rate, which is probably going to exaspate the problem of right-wing politicians being favoured more often than not.

You need another FDR very, very soon.

[Mr. Underhill]

Originally Posted by Venom

Iran is now an ally of Venezuela, who is ally with Cuba. They all hate the U.S.

• 1953: U.S. supports a coup in Iran
• 1965: U.S. supports a coup in Indonesia
• 1973 :U.S. supports a coup in Chile
• 1979-1989: U.S. supports Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the training of the Mujahideen (including Osama bin Laden) in the war against the U.S.S.R
• 1979-1990: U.S. supports the Contras in Nicaragua
• 1980-1988: U.S. is allied with Saddam and Iraq in the war against Iran
• 1985: U.S. arranges weapons for Iran (via Israel)

This is only a selection of some U.S. foreign policy. It's not surprising that some other governments and populations hate the U.S.

I've always wondered how the U.S. can have bases and a military prison in Cuba, but not be on good terms with Cuba. How's that? My apologies for being an ignorat Aussie.


J