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  #85  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 09:01 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

And that is EXACTLY what I was saying, Greyowl. Marginal, not absolute. Adding extra attack dice is always better than adding defense dice, but it's not a sure thing.

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  #86  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 09:29 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kroc View Post
But returning to GreyOwl's rather strongly worded post, I still think the "absolute" advantage is wrong. Sure, if you use 3 or more dice then you get have a better than 50% chance of getting 1 wound, isn't that kind of wasting attack dice??
First off, I apologize if my post was too strongly worded. It wasn't my intent to insult or attack anyone.

And I'm not sure what you mean by "wasting attack dice". What else are you going to do with those dice?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kroc View Post
As I pointed out in a previous post, no matter how small the probability of one attack dice succeeding if you use a million A versus a million D then you will successfully wound your opponent. Yes, I know that 3 is less than a million, but the basic point is that if you roll enough dice attack always wins.
This is where I think two different things are being compared.

The first thing is the probability of succeeding (causing at least one wound). As you roll more and more dice (both attack and defense dice being equal), you're correct the probability of causing at least one wound goes up, but the amount of increase as you increase the dice is shrinking. Now whether that increase is "marginal" or not depends on what you consider marginal, I suppose. Going from 1 to 2 dice, the increase is from 33% to 44.44%. I wouldn't consider an increase of 11.44% that marginal. Looking at something more realistic, going from 4 dice to 5 dice, the difference is roughly a 4.5% increase in your chances of causing that wound, which is just slightly less than the advantage gained by adding +1 to a d20 roll. Is that marginal? It's hard to say.

The second thing being compared is the value of adding an extra attack die. For this, which I thought was the point of the original topic (I may be wrong), I think the label of "marginal" holds less true. For example (this is the 4th row in the table I posted earlier), for 1 dice (attack and defense), adding a single attack die improves your chances by 76.76%. Definitely not marginal. Now that improvement drops as you add more dice, of course. So looking at a more realistic case of say 3 or 4 attack dice, the benefit of rolling a single extra attack die is an increase in odds of 28.63% and 22.28%, respectively. I personally wouldn't consider that increase marginal, but it all depends on one's perspective. Even when you get to the Marvelscape levels of say 6 attacks dice, adding an extra die gains you 15.51%. For me, that's still significant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperflyTNT View Post
And that is EXACTLY what I was saying, Greyowl. Marginal, not absolute. Adding extra attack dice is always better than adding defense dice, but it's not a sure thing.
No, obviously it's never a sure thing. You can have a 0.1% chance of killing a figure and still succeed, though not often. But like I said before, in most of the cases the advantage offered doesn't seem marginal to me, but since marginal is a subjective term everyone will interpret it differently.
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  #87  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 10:00 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

We're both engineers, and at the end of the day in my experience if you have 200 engineers look at the same problem there will be 200 different solutions that none will agree on!

No harm, no foul, right? I'm looking at this "Myth" as posted by Kroc...
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigManInTurkey
I don't know how many times I have heard (and maybe even said myself) that offense has an advantage in this game because there are three skulls and only two shields. People usually says that this makes it easier to wound someone than defend against a wound. This is not true.
...and I'm seeing the logic. It is a simple observation that if someone is throwing 3 attack dice against someone with 3 defense dice, there is not a large benefit to having the extra skull on the dice. Even using the Sissy's Probability tables you can see that it's not a huge benefit. Marginal, yes, but huge, no. That's my point in all of this. I, like Kroc, have seen people playing armies thinking that that one extra die against 3-defense squaddies will be all the difference in the world, and get creamed by their overconfidence in that one extra skull. It's just my thoughts on it, that's all.

No matter how you slice it, at least to me, it always comes down to having a 50/50 shot on getting a skull on an individual die and a 1 in 3 shot of hitting a shield on an individual die. At the end, it's all luck.

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  #88  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 10:14 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperflyTNT View Post
I, like Kroc, have seen people playing armies thinking that that one extra die against 3-defense squaddies will be all the difference in the world, and get creamed by their overconfidence in that one extra skull.
I don't doubt that at all. To me, that shows their misunderstanding of probabilities. Even if the increase gained by that extra die is significant, that's only the case over a large number of games when averaged out. Their very specific game may be one of the cases where it didn't help at all. That doesn't mean it's never worth it, but it doesn't mean it will always work either.

So picking a figure with +1 attack may not help you win this game much, but it should increase your total number of wins over many games by some amount. Whether that amount is significant or not depends on so many other factors, it's not worth even attempting to calculate.


And yes, no harm no foul. We're just talking math, nothing personal...
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  #89  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 10:20 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

But there's something that probabilities of dice don't consider - army makeup. What about Minions, Sentinels, and "ignore all wounds"? What about one-shield defense?

In all, there's so many possibilites that change the outcome of the battle as a whole and skew the probability factors that it all comes down to LUCK.

Heroscape, first and foremost, is a game about mitigating bad dice rolls by good army builds, good strategies, and ultimately how many effective moves/attacks per round you can have.

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  #90  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 11:32 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperflyTNT View Post
But there's something that probabilities of dice don't consider - army makeup. What about Minions, Sentinels, and "ignore all wounds"? What about one-shield defense?

In all, there's so many possibilites that change the outcome of the battle as a whole and skew the probability factors that it all comes down to LUCK.

Heroscape, first and foremost, is a game about mitigating bad dice rolls by good army builds, good strategies, and ultimately how many effective moves/attacks per round you can have.
Exactly. Those are the other factors I referred to that weren't even worth trying to calculate. And in the end, it's very difficult to overcome a good and/or bad player, regardless of how everything else works out.
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  #91  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 11:50 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

What I take from this discussion is that at 3 attack vs. 3 defense, possibly the most common match-up in the game, the skulls to shields ratio isn't overwhelmingly in favor of skulls (51% is essentially a coin-toss, in my mind). In other words, if you want to have a significantly higher probability of getting skulls than the other person does of getting shields, you're going to have work for it.
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  #92  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 03:32 PM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elginb View Post
What I take from this discussion is that at 3 attack vs. 3 defense, possibly the most common match-up in the game, the skulls to shields ratio isn't overwhelmingly in favor of skulls (51% is essentially a coin-toss, in my mind). In other words, if you want to have a significantly higher probability of getting skulls than the other person does of getting shields, you're going to have work for it.
Honestly, probability factors really shouldn't be too much of a consideration in actual gameplay. It's more of an interesting study when discussing unit balance or explaining specific matchups. It explains more why the game plays the way it does than suggesting how one should play it.

Once the figures are on the table there's often little you can do to change the odds to any significant degree. Only a scant few units have tactical attack options that should factor into your decisions (most significantly the Stingers). For most units, maximizing your attack opportunities while minimizing the opponent's is the most crucial aspect of strategy.

One of the most common mistakes I've seen is players assuming a statical advantage will produce a real result. You should NEVER expect a specific outcome on a dice roll with less than an 80% in my experience, and even then you should know what you're going to do when, not if that 20% arises. I'm always a little surprised just how often players are surprised by the results of a 30% chance. Near 1:3 is not at all an unlikely occurrence, particularly if played more than one
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  #93  
Old August 3rd, 2009, 08:28 PM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

An even worse mistake is what I'll call the 'Star Trek Paradigm,' that every time you face impossible odds you're somehow going to beat them: "Captain, the engines canna take the strain." Well, they usually canna--maybe once a lifetime. Usually your starship just blows up! That's the fatal attraction of Bolt of Witherwood too--luckily, Atlaga has other good features. And that's why I'm still waiting for D20 longshots like Sudema to be redeemed in future Waves!
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  #94  
Old August 4th, 2009, 01:01 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

The misconception because in a one die vs one die case, to get a wound there is only one possible case. One skull and no shield.

To get no wounds there are three possible cases. One skull and one shield, no skull and one shield, and no skull and no shield.

There are better odds of getting a skull, but there are also better possibilities in having no wounds.
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  #95  
Old August 4th, 2009, 06:52 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyOwl View Post
The second thing being compared is the value of adding an extra attack die. For this, which I thought was the point of the original topic (I may be wrong), I think the label of "marginal" holds less true.
Well that's what I get for using economics jargon with an engineer. A "marginal" change does not have to be a small change. For those of you with some math background margin is just another word for derivative. I am not saying the change is small or large, but as GreyOwl is saying it is the benefit of adding an extra attack dice where attack dice dominates defense dice.

And if I had understood all along that the myth was based on margins I would have never started this thread. Wish you had told me this, GreyOwl.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
... Once the figures are on the table there's often little you can do to change the odds to any significant degree. ...
Not true! Even though I agree with the spirit of your post almost 100%. The point is that getting an extra attack dice generally is worth more than getting an extra defense dice. So if you have to choose between getting an arrow grut on a hill or a minion choose your arrow grut every time.

That said, you are absolutely right in general. Height does not determine the game, but playing the odds right does.
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  #96  
Old August 4th, 2009, 08:39 AM
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Re: The great myth of Skulls versus Shields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kroc View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
... Once the figures are on the table there's often little you can do to change the odds to any significant degree. ...
Not true! Even though I agree with the spirit of your post almost 100%. The point is that getting an extra attack dice generally is worth more than getting an extra defense dice. So if you have to choose between getting an arrow grut on a hill or a minion choose your arrow grut every time.
Kroc, I agree with the spirit of your post, but that's not so great an example. A Minion is not only worth more points than an Arrow Grut (and is therefore more worth protecting with an extra defense die), but an extra attack die for a Minion is worth way more than for that Arrow Grut.
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