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  #1  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:18 AM
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Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Alright everybody!

Since we're all stressing about whether AoA will fund, check out this tracker I made and will be updating over the next 45 days. So far it's a simple linear regression, and we'll see how I update as things progress.

Based on the current trend, AoA SHOULD NOT FUND.



Please act like rapid Wall Street traders interpreting trends below.

Last edited by S1R_ART0R1US; November 3rd, 2022 at 01:43 AM. Reason: Trends will not hit backer point. Adding count daily, updating prediction weekly.
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  #2  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:39 AM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

At this rate, which I'm skeptical it will stay at, it'll fund in roughly 275 hours! If my math is correct..
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  #3  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:41 AM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

If you look at other ks you likely have a polynomial function, where it starts high and ends high, with the apex of the parabola at a lull in the mid point. Linar is very optimistic.


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Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:45 AM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by lucasd21 View Post
At this rate, which I'm skeptical it will stay at, it'll fund in roughly 275 hours! If my math is correct..
Seems right, added a days predictor to the chart title.
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  #5  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 11:20 AM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by wriggz View Post
If you look at other ks you likely have a polynomial function, where it starts high and ends high, with the apex of the parabola at a lull in the mid point. Linar is very optimistic.
Go look at Kicktraq for a typical "wide-U" shape on any boardgame KickStarter. A big spike the first day, that descends into a wide valley for the majority of the time, then a (hopefully) ascending rise in the last few days, like this project I know nothing about.

But HasLab is NOT Kickstarter, and this is a Bad Thing--it's a self-contained bubble, and I think we here need to be reaching out to other venues, posting more there than here for the next seven weeks. Kickstarter projects advertise to other Kickstarter projects, HasLab is 95% toys. BGG's Age of Annihilation page, for example. Info there is very sparse. Would casual BGG members there know anything about all the info here, or on the Discords? Not a chance. We 'Scapers need to get out of our own bubbles, post in other bubbles, advertise with smart posts & expand the backer pool.

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  #6  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 11:38 AM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by UtahScott View Post
Go look at Kicktraq for a typical "wide-U" shape on any boardgame KickStarter. A big spike the first day, that descends into a wide valley for the majority of the time, then a (hopefully) ascending rise in the last few days, like this project I know nothing about.

But HasLab is NOT Kickstarter, and this is a Bad Thing--it's a self-contained bubble, and I think we here need to be reaching out to other venues, posting more there than here for the next seven weeks. Kickstarter projects advertise to other Kickstarter projects, HasLab is 95% toys. BGG's Age of Annihilation page, for example. Info there is very sparse. Would casual BGG members there know anything about all the info here, or on the Discords? Not a chance. We 'Scapers need to get out of our own bubbles, post in other bubbles, advertise with smart posts & expand the backer pool.
UtahScott is absolutely right. We have to pick up the marketing mantle if we want this to succeed, especially with stretch goals.

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  #7  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 05:51 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Other than here, where else do you guys gather? Facebook group or discord? For heroscape topics I mean.
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  #8  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 06:10 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

I occasionally post on Facebook but I'm not on there very often. I go through phases when it comes to discord. It's very hard to keep up with the conversation there.

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  #9  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:28 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

I posted a plea on one of the biggest Facebook board game groups... and it's getting savaged by response after response of "they're not painted!" and "it costs too much!"
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  #10  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:46 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Finrod View Post
I posted a plea on one of the biggest Facebook board game groups... and it's getting savaged by response after response of "they're not painted!" and "it costs too much!"
What games are they comparing it to that are painted these days??

Are they saying it is more than they want to spend on one game, or that it's not enough content for the price? The first is understandable and subjective, the second is just wrong.

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  #11  
Old October 2nd, 2022, 10:54 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

Neither. It's just too much.

Oh wait. One person compared it to Marvel Zombies.... ignoring the terrain, of course.

Also "the art is horrid" and Hasbro is stupid for not putting it on Kickstarter or Gamefound.

Some of the most negativity I've ever seen in that group.
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  #12  
Old October 3rd, 2022, 12:02 PM
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Re: Age of Annihilation - Backer Trend and Discussion

I think the major thing at this point is seeing how endorsements from big people in board gaming YouTube will increase things. It just worries me seeing many people on here and the Facebook group saying they're buying multiple copies of an all unique set and willing to ship to other people and what the numbers are currently. I know it's early, and this does seem like something that could raise slowly as other people done out about it or perhaps change their minds and pledge.

I also believe that this won't lead to future expansions unless it hits 16,000. I know that's a whole other battle itself. The battle of all time indeed. I don't see Hasbro willing to do another run if this doesn't hit all the stretch goals. Especially if new players would really need the full master set of tiles offered to then build a want for expansions and for them to have a board to play on. I don't think Hasbro will offer basically a set of just an ROTV amount of basic tiles, which is the necessarily backbone to play. They just seem reluctant to sell just the terrain, for whatever reason.

I went into this thinking this would probably be a one and done release. I'm happy to see so much offered. I'm hoping they'll just give backers the SOTM units at 8,000 regardless. It's really not that much of an extra bonus for what is average for crowdfund campaign bonuses.

But the battle of all time is currently being fought, and the war isn't over yet.

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