#4993
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Re: Sports: NFL
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#4994
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#4995
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The point, XDV, is that the larger your sample size is, the lower your luck-based variance winds up being. That means that given the sample size of an NFL or Heroscape game, the side that performs better will generally win. The closer the two sides are in capability, scheme and execution, the more play luck has in deciding the outcome. Which means, oddly, that in saying that your side was less lucky you tend to be admitting that the other side played at a level which was similar to the level your side played at. If your side plays better, it tends to win regardless. So the complaints are a bit strange because it means that the unlucky team is admitting that it performed at a level where it needed luck to win - at which point, obviously, it wouldn't be complaining about luck. ~Aldin, looking over a four leaf clover that he overlooked before He either fears his fate too much or his desserts are small That dares not put it to the touch to gain or lose it all ~James Graham |
#4996
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#4997
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"A good teacher is like a candle: it consumes itself to light the way for others." -Anonymous |
#4998
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And Tom Brady got really lucky that Houston couldn't stop him. |
#4999
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Re: Sports: NFL
Really excited about the Bears new head coach Marc Trestman He's been around for upwards of 20 years, and his offenses have done everything. The 49'ers led the league in scoring while he was there, Rich Gannon won the MVP while he was with the Raiders, they also got to the Super Bowl that year. He's won 2 Championships in the CFL, and been there 3 times out of 5 years. |
#5000
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Re: Sports: NFL
Every time I look at this thread now I laugh at XDV's comment that the DB "fell down." He didn't fall down, he got beaten down the field and misjudged a ball that was high in the air. He leapt unsuccessfully to get to it.
Fell down? Every time I see that I think of a banana peel on the field. |
#5001
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Re: Sports: NFL
Well it is inexcusable to let anyone get behind you in that situation. I'd say it was more a mistake of the defense than anything special that Flacco and his WR did.
Have you tried Hexscape? 3D Heroscape Multiplayer Battle program! Looking for a C3V/SOV miniature? Try one of these sites. |
#5002
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Re: Sports: NFL
Definitely a mistake on the DB's part and some good ole fashion luck for Flacco in that case. The pass is exactly how analysts are describing it, a desparate one (or just call it a bad pass, either way it wasn't good). Falcco simply chucked it. There was no perfect placement of the ball or threading the needle. He threw it up for grabs and was fortuante that his receiver made a great play on the ball coming back for it.
I don't be grudge him (Flacco) for it. You need some luck to win games. Just like when a RB fumbles the ball on his way into the endzone and one of his blockers happens to fall on it first. No skill there, just fortunate the ball fell into a teammates hands. -insert signature here- |
#5003
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Re: Sports: NFL
When the camera panned downfield on that throw and I saw where the defenders were, my instant reaction was "that should be a pick". If Moore just keeps running deeper instead of stopping 2 strides short and waiting, he has perfect position for the catch.
Generally, throwing down the sideline to a mediocre receiver bracketed with double coverage is a terrible decision. However, Flacco has to make that throw. It was a desperate moment in the game, and only an extremely risky play has any chance of delivering a win to the Ravens. A perfect throw would have been a few yards deeper (Jones had nearly come to a stop when he caught it), but given the circumstances it was a darn good throw. Both statistically and by the "eye test", it was one of the best games of Flacco's career. |
#5004
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Re: Sports: NFL
Sure there was luck. It was not an easy play for the safety to make - the ball was on an unusually high arc - and he failed memorably. Considering it was dropping almost straight down a pick against a well placed receiver would have been difficult. But a competent safety should have been able to defend the pass or tackle the receiver immediately.
I was just amused by the "fell down" line. That's all. |
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