November 7th, 2015, 08:36 AM
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A Man of Taste
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Join Date: August 3, 2011
Location: USA - TX - Austin (SW)
Posts: 28,810
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Re: I'm Back
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dysole
Here's what Shimmer does to Mammoth. Okay so to recap from the Mammoth thread. The number of skulls counted given that you rolled s skulls on d die is (1/2)^d*dCs*(2/3)^(d-s). Now how many blanks did you roll once you've rolled s skulls? That's not really important. What we want is to know how many times you roll exactly one blank when you roll s skulls. So you roll d-s non-skulls. There is a 2/3 probability that you rolled a shield and a 1/3 probability you rolled a blank. So the odds of rolling exactly one blank given s skulls is (1/3)*(2/3)^(d-s-1)*(d-s). Those are the rolls that Shimmer helps Mammoth out on.
Without Shimmer, Mammoth's base attack expects you to count about 3.16 skulls. With Shimmer he bumps up to 3.50 skulls.
With a +1 bonus, he expects 3.71 skulls normally. With Shimmer he bumps up to 4.25 skulls.
With a +2 bonus, he expects 4.21 skulls normally. With Shimmer, he bumps up to 4.96 skulls.
So typically Shimmer is worth from about 0.7-1.5 extra dice for Mammoth.
~Dysole, mathematically
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That doesn't seem game breaking? If we add a distance restriction do you have any concerns?
Would I want it to be everything I love...sure...but that's just not realistic so I'm going to focus on finding things that will make me unhappy and work on fixing those.
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