Quote:
Originally Posted by rym
I'm not a math guy like some of you here, but wouldn't Zeta's 4 defense help out against a 3 attack? Especially in the second case where Zeta has the height advantage over Q9? I mean, that's 5 defense right there. Certainly he would live long enough to at least get a second, and possibly, a third shot, right?
|
Great point. I was just assuming before. Let's find out!
If neither one has glyphs or Height advantage:
If Q9 attacks with his regular 4 attack:
Zetacron takes 0-2 wounds with the following probabilities:
2(or more) wounds: 27.78%
1 wound: 27.78%
0 wounds: 44.44%
More likely, Q9 uses his special (3 attack, 3 times):
For each shot, Zetacron takes 0-2 wounds with the following probabilities:
2(or more) wounds: 14.81%
1 wound: 25.93%
0 wounds: 59.26%
After three shots, Zeta's wound probabilities look like this:
2(or more) wounds: 51.88%
1 wound: 27.31%
0 wounds: 20.81%
Wow. That's better than I thought it would be. About half the time, Zeta is around for a second shot...(Or, even if Q9 engages first, Zeta will have a chance to fire back.)
edited to add: The 'expected' number of wounds on Q9 after taking two Deadly shots is 1.18. (Worth 53.1 points). Doesn't make up his points, even if he gets to fire the first shot.
-----------
If Zetacron has an extra defense die:
If Q9 attacks with his regular 4 attack:
Zetacron takes 0-2 wounds with the following probabilities:
2(or more) wounds: 21.40%
1 wound: 24.90%
0 wounds: 53.70%
More likely, Q9 uses his special (3 attack, 3 times):
For each shot, Zetacron takes 0-2 wounds with the following probabilities:
2(or more) wounds: 10.70%
1 wound: 21.40%
0 wounds: 67.90%
After three shots, Zeta's wound probabilities look like this:
2(or more) wounds: 39.09%
1 wound: 29.60%
0 wounds: 31.31%
Wow. So he's got a 60.9% chance of surviving 3 full queglix shots. And nearly a third of the time, Q9 won't lay a single bullet on him. I'm surprised. I was looking at that 2 life and thinking he had no chance, but the high defense makes a big enough difference.
edited to add: The 'expected' number of wounds on Q9 after taking two Deadly shots is 2.44. That's worth 109.8 points. But this is assuming Zetacron has height both times. (Or a glyph or whatever.)
Thanks for asking, rym!