Hard to rewatch some of those defense rolls
In retrospect I think deploying Q9 to Wannok on the last turn was a mistake. If I send him up the center, I can just tank a 3v8, very unlikely to kill him, and then run Q9 at the Rifleman to launch a Quiglex back for 3 3v3s for the win either after winning initiative or after surviving another 3v8 if I lose intitiative. Let's do a little bit of math to learn more together:
Send Q9 to Wannok Path:
Survive 4v7 (87.7% chance)
(Chris misread the table here I think during the video, it's 3.1% to get 3 wounds 4v7, 12.3% to get 2 wounds)
Avoid 1 on Wannok (95% chance)
.877 * .95
= 83.3% chance to win
Send Q9 to Height, Queglix for Win Path:
Survive 3v8 (96.9% chance)
3 Queglix 3v3s (each Queglix is 50.9% to kill, 3 Queglixes is 88.1% to get at least one 3v3 kill)
.969 * .881 = .851
at least 85.1% chance to win, assuming I win initiative. The math is a little more complicated here, odds go down a bit if I lose initiative, but my logic doesn't account for the futile back and forth scenario, where Q9 fails the 3 3v3s and the the Rifleman comes back and fails his 3v7 (maybe 4v7?) and Q9 gets another shot at his 3 3v3s, which can happen if I win OR lose initiative. You need a simulator to do this right, or to break out sigma notation, neither of which I want to do. My intuition is it's somewhere around 90% chance to win with this route, so assuming that estimate is correct, I sacrificed ~7% chance to win by sending Q9 to Wannok. Regardless, I'm very confident it's higher than the 83.3% I had.
Really I was just tired which is why I did it. I had threaded a pretty difficult needle to get back into the lead there in those final rounds; if you had told me 20 minutes before I could roll a D20 and if I rolled higher than 1-4 I win the game, I probably would have taken it, so a simple 83.3% chance leaving it all up to the dice for the win felt fine to me after such a dramatic comeback. My OM1 and OM2 on Ashra was maybe one of my bravest moves I've done in Heroscape, I just felt like it was my only real chance to win to throw attacks of 4 at Knights.
One of my favorite games I've played even though I lost so it's great to have a recording of it.