Heroscapers - Diplomacy

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevindola (Post 2167138)

I will be happy to hear criticism about how off base I was about that conclusion of victory chances, but as I said in an earlier post. I sent my opinions to France about why I didn't think I was in such dire straights through the course of the game, and I did not receive a rebuttal.

Here are the majority of the Austria/French talks regarding Russia throughout the game. As early as Fall 1903 I was harping about how Russia was in the better position and looked poised to solo.

Spoiler Alert!

Quote:

Originally Posted by France 1903

On that topic, Russia looks poised to win this game outright. He will be growing faster than you can--as things stand right now I'm not sure how you think you will hold up if Russia began to attack you. I'm not saying he is going to yet, but I don't see how he doesn't soon. He'll grow a bit more in the north by gaining a few centers and building up to 12-13 overall and then come strike out at you for the remainder. Perhaps you have a plan, but let me at least offer....

Quote:

Originally Posted by France 1904

So let me start with what I currently see: --Russia is in the dominant position to win and it doesn't particularly seem close. --Italy continues to prove they are a fickle and unreliable ally now that they've "turned" on me. Perhaps this was really their plan all along, but they originally seemed allied with you, then they seemed to switch and work with me, now they seem like they are friendly towards you again. None of it makes sense and it doesn't seem like they are a power one would want to be reliant on for an ally. --England is in trouble in the north--Russia will be able to advance, and that's not even factoring in the trouble Germany can cause with his fleets. --France is in the position where there's not much to gain--perhaps TUN, but then Italy's fleets will be trouble. France/England may be able to hold onto some of the German mainland but it's tough. Basically growth is pretty limited. Germany/Turkey are not long for this world. They likely will be eliminated this season, or in Germany's case may have a lone fleet capturing a center somewhere. This leaves you in remarkable control over how the game ends, but the question is what path leads to you actually winning? That is up to you, but I have a hard time understanding how working with Russia will lead to you winning unless you can get Russia to make significant concessions to you and fast so you get tied in supply centers. I think it somewhat unlikely Russia will do this, since I'm pretty sure they do not see a need to do so and instead likely think they can just defeat you if they want. To that end, England and I have been in discussions and have agreed that we'd be very happy to work with you. The goal would be for the three of us to start fighting back against Russia. You and I would coordinate to remove Italy as well. This plan is honestly great for both of us--we have lots to gain in Italy, and there is plenty to gain in Russia if we can start pushing them back. You're best positioned to make gains in all of those places from my perspective. I'll fare well. I suspect England will be rather limited. From there, I am not sure how the end of the game will play out. I will be direct and honest as is my main requirement of my allies--I do not even know how I would play it. I do usually try to aim for a solo win if I think it is there, but I'm also very happy to accept draws against other skilled players who have earned my respect. Thus far only Italy and Germany have really rubbed me the wrong way during this game--Germany was far too uncommunicative for me and never really opened up with what his goals or concerns were. Italy has rubbed me the wrong way as they seem to be constantly shifting back and forth in their alliance, are not being open, and do not seem interested in actually working to make an alliance work. England has largely the same ethos I do in this game, and that involves making sure both members of an alliance are constantly happy with the arrangement. We would do the same for you, if you'd do the same for us. Our goals would be mutual growth, with the idea that we could all gain centers working together, and we'd work together with the plan to more or less grow to the same number of centers as each other. If all of this sounds interesting to you, we will gladly welcome you and can discuss plans. Obviously we'd have to be careful as I'm not sure quite when you are willing to tip your hand. I suspect we can at least disguise our triple alliance this spring, and then in the fall we could make a bigger move perhaps. I believe there is a way for both of us to really tear through Italy within the next two years such that we'd gain a lot of centers. It should also be relatively easy to take out Germany. Let me know what you think and what your loose goals would be for the next several years and we can continue discussions about how our units should actually move this season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Austria 1904

Russia worries me, and yet they have shown restraint in attacking me. This does not automatically mean trustworthiness, as the contest is also about opportunity. I recognize these things, and understand with an agreeable Austria that Russia has been allowed to swell relative to the growth of other world powers. I certainly won't promise anything today. Things are too fluid and I am not in a position to make any lasting strike against Russia regardless this spring. What I can agree with you with is that I don't trust nor particularly like working with Italy, and would be content with movements that start the process of an agreeable split of their territories between ourselves. I will say I am not sure how aggressive towards them I would choose to be this year, but Russia's movements might dictate that for myself too. To put a succinct summary, I feel more comfortable with my security currently with Turkey on its last breath and France stymied in the south by Italy's quantities of fleets. Therefore, my next short term goal is to find a way to extricate Italy from my home, and then properly defend myself against Russian betrayal. With, yes, expansion into the Italian peninsula my next target as opposed to leaving Italy and moving directly against Russia or stretching myself too thin past Munich. (If Italy was more consistent, I might consider alternate moves, but I don't see that happening in this war)

Quote:

Originally Posted by France 1904

With all that being said, I'm not sure if you are still beholden to working with Russia to the end or if you're up for working against him. England and I understand we will lose unless you turn against him or vice versa. My analysis says Russia has no need to break the alliance as he will beat you to 18 centers--he is surely going to grow faster in the north, and with some of those builds, he can give you some hell in the Balkans if he decided to. I don't see how you beat him to 18 unless you stab him, and so that is where England and I hope to jump in. Let me know what your thoughts currently are. I don't blame you if you want to at least try to stick with Russia and get enough concessions out of him to even the fight. I can at least honor and respect that choice as I can see how a rational actor might think that is his best path to actually winning the game, even if it isn't the route I would take.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1904 Austria

Regardless, here is where we find ourselves. You have your own eyes, and you can see that Russia has conceded CON to me, although possibly temporarily. I can also see that Russia is poised for great expansion in the north, through Berlin, and then likely easy gains in Denmark and KIE. All while I face a much harder path in the south, outside of Venice, should I choose to engage in that advance. I am not in a position this season to do anything more than hope Russia allows me to hold CON at least in terms of directly taking Russian centers. I suspect we could decide on a course of action against Italy and what to do with Munich if that is indeed how I would choose to play this season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by France 1905

I hear you've also been enticing England to start attacking me in the hope of slowing down Russia to allow you to potentially win. For what it is worth, I have tried repeatedly to warn you that Russia was a real threat to solo win over you, and I still see the situation the same. While you've played very well, I legitimately think you let Russia grow too fast and too strong in the north while you languished in the south. If I have a say in the matter, I am likely to continue fighting against you and let Russia/England overtake me in the north. I don't really know what else to say. Mostly my heart just hasn't been in this game for about the past week when it was clear I no longer had any shot of turning you to helping England or I. Instead I await my eventual demise it would seem. And when I continue to analyze how else I could have played this game, I mostly arrive at the sad conclusion that I think I mostly made the right moves, I just failed to sway Italy enough diplomatically. (Or perhaps do enough to warn Turkey or sway Russia/yourself earlier). Ah well I suppose it best this game is won or lost in diplomatic relations and I simply have to look forward to the next game where I potentially will find myself surrounded by more predictable neighbors

Quote:

Originally Posted by Austria 1905

As for Russia, I have not been overly ecstatic with their gains in the North. They have come surprisingly fast. I did not anticipate them taking KIE when they did, and now I find myself more at their mercy then I would have liked. However, I am a new player to this game and until actual board movements of betrayal teach me the lesson of reducing a long term ally's growth or suffer the consequences, I will likely continue to play in this manner. And I will also attribute to some lack of long term planning. I could understand the short term damage value of allying with E/F against R, but had a difficult time seeing if I would end up better in the long run with all my resources switched against an angry Russia. Regardless, I do have great reason to fear Russia's intentions. I hope it does not come to fruition and I can share when the war is done....

Quote:

Originally Posted by France 1906

And no worries. Sensing the long term way things will play out can be extremely difficult. It's particularly impossible to trust my word that Russia was going to overtake you since that was the only thing I could really argue to get you to switch to my side anyhow. So to figure out that was the honest truth from my assessment of the board position and past experience....hard to separate that from a savvy opponent trying to get you to make a mistake. In the end I mostly regret that you and I never really were able to work together as I think we could have made great allies. Instead the way the game unfolded we had to be respectful enemies. For what it is worth, I anticipate Russia goes for the solo win. I have little advice on how you can stop him from doing that if that is his goal besides potentially trying to turn on him now when I and England still have a little fight left. Still I'm not sure if that's something you want to try to do, or else just hope Russia is the sort of player who values his word more and truly would rather take the draw than the solo win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1906 Austria

As for Russia, I still think you are/were trying to adjust my thinking to believing I am in more danger than I am. Believe me, I see the plays Russia can take to gain a few more centers, but I don't see him ever having been at the point where he can assure victory if he doesn't knock me out and instead he is facing a determined England/France/Austria (formerly Italy) alliance. That waived build has been a constant threat of multiple home center ground armies and he knows the floodgates would be open in the south if suddenly I gave up on my naval war.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1907 France

Fair enough on Italy. I still think him a fool then if he thought he stood a chance working wiwth you. What possible incentive did you have to actually not stabbing him in the back and taking his centers? I mean I'm sure Italy's fear is that I'd be doing the same thing, but the issue is I actually needed his help. I couldn't afford to do that, as England and I still didn't have enough force to beat the Russia/Austria alliance without someone else joining us. Alas, you did a good job though to apparently convince him to work with you and you expertly manipulated him so that he provided you a lot of benefit. Ultimately that is what winning this game takes, and my arguments weren't enough to sway Italy and so I'll lose. I also haven't swayed you, and that's fine. I still believe you're going to lose unless Russia really does want to draw and makes sure you draw with him. It seems he really may want that, and so it will work out for you. But if there was a bit more ruthless of a player behind Russia, I still believe it's pretty likely that Russia can get the solo win. But we'll see how it plays out. i still struggle to see how you're going to gain many centers compared to Russia's soon to be windfall of three English home centers. From there it seems the win would be well within his reach if he wanted it since I will not be able to defend my northern centers against his overwhelming force.

Now as for your assertion that you sent me a rebuttal about why you ddin't think you were in dire straights, I can only assume you're talking about your message I labeled Austria 1906 above?

If so, c'mon. It was 1906 which was after about 2-3 seasons where I made concerted efforts to sway you and work with you and you constantly rebuffed me. You talked a big game about the moves we could make but always, and I mean always, stuck tight to Russia and served to cause issues for me. I felt I was getting strung along.

Then in that very same message you admit you mostly simply don't trust me. You think my talk about Russia beating you primarily is me trying to manipulate you. You'll have to forgive me for this next part, but GAHHHHHH. Coupled with your metagame talks a bit earlier, this is part of the reason I sometimes do hate playing CoN's--people think I'm constantly manipulating them to my own ends to the point where they seem to never want to trust me just because I have built up such a reputation as a great manipulator. Sure, I do think I'm pretty good at tricking people in CoN and playing as a puppet. But I'm also a skilled player who can really see what is going on as a warrior, yet often warriors allies in Con ignore me because of reputation It would seem that in this game, you essentially did the same thing where you were so afraid I was manipulating you that you essentially ignored my constant warnings as someone crying wolf rather than me actually pointing out the probable outcome of the game.

Ultimately, whatever. I'll admit in our first game we played I did wind up crying wolf over a juggernaut (although I was legitimately fearful of that myself, but whatever). You have limited experience and were working off of what you had. It's alright.

But please understand it's very rough for me to hear that I wasn't doing enough to warn you or explain to you that Russia was going to win. I repeatedly and consistently were warning you that Russia was in the better spot compared to you and that you would likely lose to him or draw. All of your press never made me feel like you actually thought you could win, you entirely were playing for the draw with Russia by the end and largely were just hoping he wouldn't stab you. Then you flat out admit you don't trust my words as you think I'm just manipulating you....

I mean what possible motive do I have at that point in the game to continue trying to work with you? I had accepted my loss and was ready and glad when it came.