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You start by admitting that having two elections in five cycles have a disconnect between the winner and the candidate that got the most total votes, and then go on to say a bunch of stuff that would continue to perpetrate that problem. Either the solution is to go with who gets the most total votes, or else you are okay with sometimes having a person elected who gets less total votes, but gets more of the "important" votes. |
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The reason for the electoral college is to reflect the will of an area even if that area has lower turnout than expected. Switching to electoral college by county or splitting electoral votes continues that practice. It will greatly decrease the emphasis on getting the last 1% of the vote that swings elections now. |
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Did Trump win because of the Electoral College? Because Hillary is a fairly weak campaigner? Because Hillary has been the target of, essentially, a 25 year long campaign of negativity that has made her (fairly or unfairly) widely perceived as corrupt and untrustworthy? Because a huge number of people feel alienated by the political system and the direction of the country? Because Hillary picked a vice presidential candidate that did not help her prospects in any meaningful way? I'd argue yes to all of those, and I think the consensus opinion agrees with me, except perhaps about last one. But the proximate cause, the nearest and most easily reversed, was the late news cycle. There were a very large number of undecideds, and they broke for Trump. Those people heard lots about the e-mail stories in the last week and a half, and very little about the many many many negative Trump stories out there. Quote:
The story basically moved the numbers by about 3% in Trump's favor. After Comey said "my bad, actually nothing there", 1% of those 3% dropped back, but it was still a 2% swing from the story by election day. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by about 1% each. Give her those states (and ME-2, which was similarly close) and she wins 279-269. An electoral college squeaker, to be sure, but we're having a very different conversation today. FWIW, I think this was the first "October surprise" that actually had an impact in my lifetime... maybe ever? |
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I strongly disagree that undecideds swung the election. This article has a lot of good stats in it. One that particularly stuck out to me:
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Aaaand, we're off.
We're entering some dark days. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this type of thing is as bad as it gets. |
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Your conclusions seem off here. First off, you cite an exit poll that has an error range of at least 3 percentage points. You really have no clue here if those numbers are accurate enough to help explain how Trump made up about 3 percentage points. Next, you aren't actually told what the stated percentage of Republicans or Democrats is, therefore you can't make the conclusion that more Democrats voted Trump than Republicans voted Clinton. It likely is true, as typically numbers are pretty close for those who identify as Democrats or Republicans, but that data isn't available to you here. Either way, the very article you quoted has this to say: Quote:
Overall, I think it's clear that undecided broke for Trump and swung the election. Thus far there isn't good evidence to suggest otherwise. |
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Again, as I said to Rich, there's plenty of correct narratives for things that caused Trump to win, because he won a very narrow victory and changing any of a number of conditions would change that. My point is just that the last one of those things to fall into place, the most proximate to the election, was the late news cycle and the impact it had on undecideds. |
Re: Decision 2016
This is the problem when you force a narrative too much. Of course there is the possibility the exit poll was off slightly, but it could be off in either direction. The point is that there was not a substantial Republican revolt against Trump, and the Democrats had a similarly sized one against Clinton that the media basically ignored. I don't think in a year or even in a week we will be talking about the news cycle swing against Clinton being the reason she lost. Undecided voters broke for Trump, but the news cycle swing wasn't why
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http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls...ps-voted-2012/ Democrats voted for Romney at a 7 percent rate, Republicans voted for Obama at a 6 percent rate according to the stats there. As always, error margins of a few percentage points. This years results look pretty much identical. It's just not a story when 90+% of a party votes for that party's nominee. For awhile it looked like Republican's would not vote at those rates for Trump. Some polls suggested it. Clearly that did not happen, although nobody really thought it would towards the end, as during the course of the campaign Republican's came to fall in line with Trump. Dok's posts lay out many reasons for what it could have been, and points out that the most proximate would have been the last cycle of news. It certainly would seem to be a part of how Trump managed to pick up most of those undecided voters. So I don't see what narrative is being forced here then. |
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I guess I just think that the campaign, the way the DNC ran things as a whole were the major reasons for this loss. Clinton received far fewer votes than Obama did in both of his runs (59 million to 65 and 69 million), against a historically bad candidate. This was not a battle of swaying undecided voters. The democrats failed to create a campaign that energized their base.
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It will be interesting to see how history interprets this election. |
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There is more truth in 1984 than you would want to think. |
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However, most people you (and I) describe are not the ones that were holding out late in the campaign. |
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Okay. That's fair to say. I guess I am speaking about this election from a sense of how it could have gone differently, and you're saying why it went the way it did. It should not have been close enough to come down to undecided voters. There are lots of things to reflect on
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As I have already shown, Democrats voted for their candidate at rates over 90+%. If Clinton had done better among the independents and undecideds, she would easily be the president now. So I do not see how you can claim this wasn't a battle of undecided voters. Late ballots still have to be counted, as well as get total voting numbers. We have no clue how turnout was for certain yet, and so quoting absolute vote numbers means quite little. Not to mention Obama won independents and undecideds by handy margins. If Clinton had also done so, she would have similar total vote numbers and a victory. Therefore, it seems clear you are simply making up the story you want regardless of what evidence there is otherwise. If you continue to be like that, and facts do not mean anything, I shall just drop this and let you think what you will. EDIT: Alright I see your latest post now--indeed you could be correct. If Democrats had managed to get an even better turnout, they could have managed better. If Hillary had been able to be better liked, she would probably have fared better. There are many things that could have happened. But the undecided voters breaking late for Trump is certainly one of the many things that did not go the Democrat's way this election. |
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If you divide up the electors so that the winner in each Congressional district gets an elector, with the overall winner getting the remaining two, that just does the same thing -- in 1992, there were 102 districts where the opposition party had a real chance; by 2012, the number was down to 35. Candidates aren't going to bother campaigning in a state where their best outcome is shifting electoral totals by two or three. Quote:
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~Aldin, curious cat |
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Because the left is so well behaved themselves....<sarcasm> Can we not just agree that there are people who are total jack wagons on both sides, people who do not respect other's property, personal well being, or even their feelings. The vast MAJORITY of Americans are not like these people, do not like these people, and hate when they pull stuff like this so lets just condemn their bad behavior without assigning some sort of left/right/center label ok? - Raider30 |
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Kids will be kids, and this isn't the same level as swastikas, but we shouldn't discount the reality here. Trump's election has validated a certain flavor of nativism that makes this sort of behavior a lot closer to the mainstream than it was before. |
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Don't tell me it was like other campaigns that way, and don't tell yourself that either, please. Please, please, *please* just acknowledge that his relationship with white supremacist groups was a real thing, and that you pray - as I do - that they have no influence over his administration. They liked him; he won; they feel empowered. Let that be the end of it, though heaven knows that is scary enough. |
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http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...a_blanket.html My point is for every tit you can find someone else can find a corresponding tat. It's not new and it certainly didn't start with Trump. I utterly hate it and those who choose to express themselves in that manner. Apologies for any misspelled words or if the link doesn't work. Typing on an iPhone kind of sucks. - Raider30 |
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I pray that white supremacists have NO influence on anyone, that their ignorant beliefs will shrivel and die along with their hatred. But as I said to Dok, for every tit one side brings up there is a corresponding tat. And it all should stop. Apologies for not relinking the article trying to type on an iPhone and it's awful. - Raider30 |
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- Raider30 |
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In France there is more farmers and they have less acres each (even if we are definitely going more and more towards the american way). And even if there is definitely cultural differences I don't htink the gap is as wide as in America. Culture is not about what your parents or grandparents are it's about what you are, where you live and grow. An afro-american and a skinhead living in the same neighbourhood for years will have more in common (in a cultural way) with each other than with some guy from the countryside, even if they claim not to and hate each other. |
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Raider30, white supremacist groups were celebrating Trump's candidacy and have now been celebrating his election. I do not think you can find anything comparable on the left.
Yes, there are bad people everywhere. But only one candidate, in my lifetime, from either party has ever been the standardbearer for some of them. edit: Raider, look again at my post. I never said he was responsible for any of them. But there is a connection to him, at least from the perspective of the vandals, and that makes it unique, and especially unsettling. |
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I guess I'm curious to know, from your point of view, especially given the nature of your job, at what point does someone become responsible for the actions of other people? I'm probably being slightly overly defensive about all this because frankly it just seems like there's a lot of piling on right now, not just here but everywhere. But these forums are, to borrow some lingo from the kids, a 'safe space' and so I'm indulging myself with a little Q and A with you. - Raider30 |
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Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad.
A word can come in all shapes and sizes, and have varying degrees of meaning. Just because the word can be used to describe the actions of people on both the left and right does not mean the two are equally guilty. (Neo-Nazism is the big bold one, in case that's not obvious.) That sort of false equivalency is a big part of what happened last night. |
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Please understand I am in now way condoning the behavior, much less the thoughts these idiots have. I have a hard time blaming one person for another's actions while it seems others get a pass based on left, right , or center. - Raider30 |
Re: Decision 2016
When did you see a hate crime from BLM invoking the name of a President or the President Elect?
Regardless, I don't concede that BLM is a hate group. But that's a different discussion for a different time. It is not crazy talk (or hate talk) to try to implement their goals. You may not like their goals and I may not like them (all) either, and I get that police are needlessly villified, but it's a long jump from their stated goals to swastika-painting neo-Nazi. |
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Raider30 |
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I wasn't saying anything other than what I said. I think you've already agreed with the above, so there is really no need for us to argue about this point. |
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Your overly general characterization of people shot by police as "innocent citizens" indicates to me that this is sensitive subject with you and perhaps you and I should simply agree to disagree, or if you want you can PM me. Either way it was not my intent to push your buttons or otherwise cause you to be upset. If that was the case then I am sorry. The context of mentioning BLM was in response to the notion that some people are responsible for others actions. Not to form an equivalency between their ideas and those of a neo-nazi, however, the thought occurs to me that there are similarities in the way both groups wrongly label entire categories of people. Regards, - Raider30 |
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- Raider30 |
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I am on the side of defending police far, far more often than I am on the side of defending BLM, but I don't see them as (always) opposed. It's a tricky conversation, but it's possible. |
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https://gma.yahoo.com/5-missteps-may...opstories.html# Another article on the same topic: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...cid=spartandhp Michael Moore's explanation for the Trump victory. http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news...cid=spartandhp "Donald Trump came to the Detroit Economic Club, and stood there in front of the Ford Motor executives, and said, 'If you close these factories as you're planning to do in Detroit and build them in Mexico, I'm going to put a 35 percent tariff on those cars when you send them back, and nobody is going to buy them.' It was an amazing thing to see. No politician, Republican or Democrat, had ever said anything like that to these executives. And it was music to the ears of people in Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Brexit states. ... Whether Trump means it or not is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting. And it's why every beaten-down, nameless, forgotten working stiff, who used to be part of what was called the middle class, loves Trump. He is the human Molotov cocktail that they've been waiting for. The human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them. And on Nov. 8, Election Day, although they've lost their jobs, although they've been foreclosed on by the bank, next came the divorce and now the wife and kids are gone, the car's been repo'd, they haven't had a real vacation in years, they're stuck with the sh--ty Obamacare bronze plan, where you can't even get a f---ing Percocet. They've essentially lost everything they had, except one thing. The one thing that doesn't cost them a cent and is guaranteed to them by the American Constitution: the right to vote. They might be penniless, they might be homeless, they might be f---ed over and f---ed up, it doesn't matter. Because it's equalized on that day: a millionaire has the same number of votes as the person without a job, one. " |
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Moore's most impressive feat was essentially calling the final electoral map... in July.
Spoiler Alert!
But anyway, I basically agree with the points you're making but I'm unsure if you're making them as a counterpoint to what I've said or as an additional explanation. As I said to vegie, all of these things can be simultaneously true. Trump appealed to a certain slice of the electorate in a unique way, and that was critical to his victory. But this does not change the fact that his critical wins in WI/MI/PA were very close, and the decisions of late breaking undecideds was critical in all three. And it seems fairly clear that those late undecideds were influenced by the news cycle of the last two weeks of the campaign, which was unambiguously anti-Clinton. If the news cycle of the last 10 days is more about Trump, or just neutral, then the break of undecideds is less extreme, and that probably makes the ~1% difference that swings all three of those states. |
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I mean, I still believe low Clinton turnout is the most important factor. Just based on the reaction in the country, I think more people would have wanted Clinton, if you polled every single person. But Trump energized his smaller base, and Clinton took hers for granted. Clinton drastically underperformed in total votes relative to Obama, and Trump did about the same relative to McCain and Romney. While the other factors of late undecideds swinging Trump certainly gave Trump the win, the biggest takeaway should be that the Democratic strategy did not work. They didn't have a message, they didn't have an inspiring candidate (even though she could have been the first female president, which is a pretty inspiring thing!), and they were too confident that the other side would self-destruct. It never should have come down to undecideds, and it never should have come down to the final news cycle. They made safe choices (like, as you mentioned, Kaine) because they thought they could. Even if you want to argue that Clinton could have won this election with the strategy she took, she wouldn't have won it decisively. Personally, I'm going to look at the actual outcome, to see that my personal feelings of disconnect with the Democratic party are shared by many others. I really hope that they learn from this, and have honest primaries and an honest message in the future.
This election had a pair of pretty bad defeats for the concept of families controlling the presidency. A Bush and Clinton ran with unprecedented infrastructure and support from their establishment, and lost to Donald Trump. People clearly do not want their leaders chosen based on their family name. |
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Sorry for the slight derail, everyone. |
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