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AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 11:25 AM
i was wondering if you math ppl that are experienced with this game can give me a statistical breakdown of he helpfulness of #defense dice (vs) the helpfulness of the # of life the character has.

I've seen a lot of ppl are upset with the Deathwalkers since they have only one life, but the 9D dice help, i was just wondering the average number of attacks he can take before dying, and the same for other characters (with less defense but more life).

I know this is pretty open to choosing which chars and how much life and defense etc, but gimme whatever you can please. :)
I guess try to take a char with the same # range and attack dice and similar point values.

netherspirit
May 24th, 2006, 11:30 AM
I remember reading about this, and I think its more beneficial to have an additional defense die than an additioanl life.

Seed
May 24th, 2006, 11:30 AM
Life is way better than health in my opinion, but I'm no pro :P

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 11:34 AM
life better than health? arent they the same?

AbducteeLeader
May 24th, 2006, 11:42 AM
I would say that a balance between the two stats is best, too little life and your completely at the mercy of the dice, one bad roll and bam, figure dead, too little defense and then you can't defend from even the weakest of attacks, and so your easier to peck to death, personally, I'f I had to split the dice between nine in some way, I'd probably go 5 def 4 life, or something in the middle like that.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 11:44 AM
^ so you're saying that 1life = 1.25D? approximately

shakey_snake
May 24th, 2006, 11:46 AM
Life is much more flexable because of being able to take a disengagement swipe and being able to be healed by Kelda or the Glyph of Kelda.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 11:50 AM
but how much more is life than D (lookin for a number) :twisted:

AbducteeLeader
May 24th, 2006, 11:52 AM
^ so you're saying that 1life = 1.25D? approximately

Not at all, that is just what I would perfer if I had to choose between life or defense with 9 dice, I think defense is much better then life, but that there has to be a balance, otherwise luck will play too much of a roll. I would much rather have a figure that has 99 defense and one life, then a figure with 99 life and 1 defense(While this comparison is a bit extreme, I'm about to explain this.)

It seems to me that having more life gives linear benefits to the figure, you increasing how many hits they can take before they die, seems ok, but now think about this... the more defense a figure has, the more likely they are to roll shields, and hence block attacks, having something like 99 defense means on average you can block a 33 skull attack roll, and the lower the attack, the more likely you are to block it, you'd almost have to TRY to not get shields once you get up to a certain number of di. Also, however high your defense is, means you can block an attack that high possibly MULTIPLE times, while with life, you can take an attack one less then your life, but after that your dead. I hope that clarifies my position on the matter.

shakey_snake
May 24th, 2006, 11:56 AM
Heroscape Matchup Calculator Saylind vs Finn (http://server.boardgamestuff.com:8000/cgi-bin/hst2t?l1=5&a1=3&d1=3&l2=4&a2=3&d2=4)


Saylind (5L 3d 3a) wins 49% of the time.
Finn (4L 4d 3a) wins 51% of the time.


It's about like having a medium pair vs. 2 overcards. 8)

It's a coin flip.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 12:00 PM
i agree, just trying to see if someone knows statistically how much more beneficial one is than the other (based on how many avg attacks that char can take from diff #attack guys) I'm trying to see if i can figure out how to do it. You'd have to find the %chance for the guy to roll < # and the attacker to roll > or = to #, for each number, and then you'd get the avg # of hits on the character per roll. Then you take the life divided by avg #hits/roll, and you can now know the avg number of times you will get attacked with a character with X attack dice before you die.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 12:05 PM
awesome, thanks snake, i'm going to play with that thing for a while :D

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 12:07 PM
deathwalker vs finn = deathwalker 62% of time (assuming they are adjacent and on level ground)

hrmmmm, and it seems....
3life 5D = 48% against 4L4D
5life 3D = 49% against 4L4D

in that case at least, its better to have life than D, but its better to have them even (if Life+D is same for both chars, and same attack)

shakey_snake
May 24th, 2006, 12:09 PM
awesome, thanks snake, i'm going to play with that thing for a while :D

:google:

AbducteeLeader
May 24th, 2006, 12:09 PM
Hmm, I almost forgot to say something, if you want to talk on averages, statistically I unit that has defense will be able to block attacks from a roll made with 2/rds the attack die as the number of defense you roll, and on average should block an attack 1/3rd the listed defense, but is can do this idefinately so long as the units life does not drop to zero, then we have life, which basically can take a hit equal to it's numerical stat minus 1 before the card is dead. In this way, having high defense is *ussually* better against many small attacks then high life, while inversly high life is better at taking single large attacks.

I actually think something like this has kind of been touched on before, but count really remember, I hope this helps.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 12:15 PM
^ yeah, that makes sense, the small attacks, want high D, high attacks want high life. that helps thanks.

shakey_snake
May 24th, 2006, 12:30 PM
you might also check out Mathguy's matchup calculator (http://math.lfc.edu/~yuen/heroscape/matchup.pl)

It's much more powerful

TheRealQ
May 24th, 2006, 12:46 PM
Sorry, I didn't get here sooner. I was sleeping. UG hit the point but might not have answered your question directly. Here is the math:

3 defence on average absorbs 1 point of damage
1 life absorbs 1 point of damage
therefore 1 life is equivalent to 3 defense

using life to absorb prevents you from counting the last point of life
so when comparing life and defense only count the life points >1

considering an average attack of 4 dice (i don't know this i am just best guessing) you receive an average of 2 hits
therefore a full coverage defense would be 6, as that on average blocks the 2 hits

When considering overall health of a figure you need to consider life >1 and the difference (be it greater or lesser) of defense from 6

example 4D 3L, on an average attack 2/3 pt of hits will penetrate defenses, the characters life reserve is 2 and will be absorbed in 3 such attacks, the 4th attack may prove fatal

the mathematics are only a part of consideration though, you still have to know what your opponent is bringing to the table

TheRealQ
May 24th, 2006, 12:51 PM
you might also check out Mathguy's matchup calculator (http://math.lfc.edu/~yuen/heroscape/matchup.pl)

It's much more powerful

Thanks for the link. I will put this to good use.

AmishBurrito
May 24th, 2006, 01:05 PM
i dont think you can state that 3d=1life, i get that one shield absorbs a damage and that 3 D dice ~ 1 shield, but it matters how strong the opponent attacks are. According to the 3D=1L, its equal to have a guy with 1 life and 6D as a guy with 3 life and 0D,

They would not be equal, one type may be better against an attacker with 1A, and the other better against an attacker with 3A

6A= avg 3 skulls, thats average death with a guy 3L, 0D, but if 3 skulls are rolled, the 6D,1L guy would have more than 0% chance to live.

you also have to factor in when the guy rolls 2 skulls or 1, or 4, etc
it may come out to 1L=3D, but i don't think it's that simple

MBSowards
May 24th, 2006, 01:06 PM
I'm pretty new to the game, but with 3 or less defense I think that you need some extra life, but I'm pretty comfortable with 4 defense dice and less lives.

DoesntCompute
May 24th, 2006, 01:53 PM
Defense is more important than life until you have enough defense dice to have the greatest chance of blocking the most likely amount of skulls you will face. Once you have that much defense, having more life is better than having more defense dice.

Defense Successes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 - Shields rolled
# 1 .33 ( at least )
2 .56 .11
o 3 .70 .26 .04
f 4 .80 .41 .11 .01
5 .87 .54 .21 .05 .00
d 6 .91 .65 .32 .10 .02 .00
i 7 .94 .74 .43 .17 .05 .01 .00
c 8 .96 .80 .53 .26 .09 .02 .00 .00
e 9 .97 .86 .62 .35 .14 .04 .01 .00 .00


Attack Successes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 - Skulls rolled
# 1 .50 ( at least )
2 .75 .25
o 3 .88 .50 .13
f 4 .94 .69 .31 .06
5 .97 .81 .50 .19 .03
d 6 .98 .89 .66 .34 .11 .02
i 7 .99 .94 .77 .50 .23 .06 .01
c 8 1.0 .96 .86 .64 .36 .14 .04 .00
e 9 1.0 .98 .91 .75 .50 .25 .09 .02 .00


The most common # of attack dice is probably 3 so you want to be able to consistantly be able to block 2 skulls. You would need to have 5 defense dice to have a greater than 50% chance of blocking 2 skulls.

TheRealQ
May 24th, 2006, 02:37 PM
i dont think you can state that 3d=1life, i get that one shield absorbs a damage and that 3 D dice ~ 1 shield, but it matters how strong the opponent attacks are. According to the 3D=1L, its equal to have a guy with 1 life and 6D as a guy with 3 life and 0D,

They would not be equal, one type may be better against an attacker with 1A, and the other better against an attacker with 3A

6A= avg 3 skulls, thats average death with a guy 3L, 0D, but if 3 skulls are rolled, the 6D,1L guy would have more than 0% chance to live.

you also have to factor in when the guy rolls 2 skulls or 1, or 4, etc
it may come out to 1L=3D, but i don't think it's that simple

the mathematics are only a part of consideration though, you still have to know what your opponent is bringing to the table

Ahem, I was only explaining the math. I did not say equals; I said equivalent. And I explained that in factorization I did not use a base module of 1Life/1Def but 2Life/6Def. Please read my post rather than pick at it, I was simply answering the original question to the best of my availabilities. If you defer from my input then provide an alternate solution. We are trying to provide an answer, not create more questions.

Jason
May 24th, 2006, 04:11 PM
"I would much rather have a figure that has 99 defense and one life, then a figure with 99 life and 1 defense"

I disagree, I'd rather have 99 life and 1 defense. Figures like Dan/MBS/Murphy/ etc can all bypass def unless the fig is Large/Huge. Even if large/Huge the Dw7k can still inflict 2 wounds that can't be defended against, the Hounds can also auto inflict a wound. Additionally, the 99 life unit could be fully healed by Kelda (that would be funny), AND could have it's defense boosted by Raelin, Thogrim, etc. A 1 life figure though can never have that modified during the game

Taeblewalker
May 24th, 2006, 04:59 PM
I agree with the general 1 Life is equivalent to 3 Defense idea. However, Life has a HUGE advantage in the following situations:

Counterstrike - Samurai and Charros
Falling damage - when rolling one or three dice
Leaving Engagement
Lava Field damage
Marro Plague
Deathwalker 7000
Any future units with the ability to do extra damage like Marro Plague or Coward's Reward
Any custom rules for scenarios, such as taking one wound in a violent stream (I believe the Forgotten Forest set has a rule like this) and Ice Storm in the Tundra Scenarios
House scenarios, such as ones I have used where Mitunsol functions like a trap that does one unblockable attack die only to the figure who landed on it
Deadeye Dan's Ullar Enhanced Rifle Special Attack
Me-Burq-Sa's Paralyzing Stare

Can you think of others?

-Taeblewalker

AbducteeLeader
May 24th, 2006, 05:31 PM
I agree with the general 1 Life is equivalent to 3 Defense idea. However, Life has a HUGE advantage in the following situations:

Counterstrike - Samurai and Charros
Falling damage - when rolling one or three dice
Leaving Engagement
Lava Field damage
Marro Plague
Deathwalker 7000
Any future units with the ability to do extra damage like Marro Plague or Coward's Reward
Any custom rules for scenarios, such as taking one wound in a violent stream (I believe the Forgotten Forest set has a rule like this) and Ice Storm in the Tundra Scenarios
House scenarios, such as ones I have used where Mitunsol functions like a trap that does one unblockable attack die only to the figure who landed on it
Deadeye Dan's Ullar Enhanced Rifle Special Attack
Me-Burq-Sa's Paralyzing Stare

Can you think of others?

-Taeblewalker

While this is true, there are abilities that also completely ignore Life, and ones that make having high or at least some defense a near nessacity, such as all the insta-kill moves, Dw8k's rapid fire, it really all comes down to the situation, considering the same can be said for attack dice(stealth dodge anyone?) There is no one end all be all stat, theres just too many counters to everything.

AbducteeLeader
May 24th, 2006, 05:32 PM
Quick thing also, for skills like couunterstrike, I would say that just makes defense more valueble also if you have, since the mroe defense you have the more your chances of causing a wound.

bobofett
May 24th, 2006, 05:37 PM
I believe that math should stay at the job or in school. Statistics are a pain in the @$$ and they sholud be :johnwoo2:

Taeblewalker
May 24th, 2006, 09:24 PM
While this is true, there are abilities that also completely ignore Life, and ones that make having high or at least some defense a near nessacity, such as all the insta-kill moves, Dw8k's rapid fire, it really all comes down to the situation, considering the same can be said for attack dice(stealth dodge anyone?) There is no one end all be all stat, theres just too many counters to everything.[quote]

I'm not sure what you mean about Defense vs. insta-kill. All of those either force unblockable attack dice or require a d20 roll, against which defense dice are useless.

However, abilities like Stealth Dodge definitely work in favor of Defense over life, especially since all the figures that have it (DW7K and Kravs) have only one life! Adding one more life to any of these figures would probably not be so helpful as adding another Defense Die.

And of course, rolling more defense for Counterstrike can be better, both defensively and offensively, than giving the Samurai Life 2.

Taeblewalker

Teruck
May 26th, 2006, 01:21 PM
if you go to an extreme on the calculator it gives a much different answer
unit A
1life
3 attack
8defence

Unit B
8 life
3 attack
1 defence

the unit B with the 8 life will win 62.5% of the time

gorillanator
May 26th, 2006, 01:30 PM
I think extra life is better than an extra defense.

I did the matchup between Agent Carr and Sgt. Drake and Sgt. Drake wins a little more often than Carr, but it also said that if Carr went first he would win, but if Drake went first he would win.

TheRealQ
May 26th, 2006, 02:11 PM
I think extra life is better than an extra defense.

I did the matchup between Agent Carr and Sgt. Drake and Sgt. Drake wins a little more often than Carr, but it also said that if Carr went first he would win, but if Drake went first he would win.

Interesting, then it is also important to note that first attack is sometimes determined by Movement. Both of these figures has the same movement value but in other match-ups the figure with the highest movement value can stand outside of the opponents movement range then charge up and draw first blood.

TheRealQ
May 26th, 2006, 02:19 PM
Sorry, not trying to Jack the thread just had a thought pop in my head and had to post it.

Back to topic. I haven't been able to successfully use the combat calculator so haven't been able to test my theory. If someone gets the chance could you run a combat between a character with 2L/4A/9D, one with 3L/4A/6D, one with 4L/4A/3D, and one with 5L/4A/0D. Curious of the results and may change my theory accordingly.

shakey_snake
May 26th, 2006, 05:13 PM
I haven't been able to successfully use the combat calculator so haven't been able to test my theory. If someone gets the chance could you run a combat between a character with 2L/4A/9D, one with 3L/4A/6D, one with 4L/4A/3D, and one with 5L/4A/0D. Curious of the results and may change my theory accordingly.They will. 1 life is worth 3 defense die only if the character is going to be attacked once. A 2L 9D characer is way more valuable than 5L/ 0D

Fallen Templar
May 26th, 2006, 05:16 PM
When their is no balance between Def. and Life you get the DW9000 :wink:

feekonea
May 26th, 2006, 05:28 PM
I'd rather have life as long as my d dice is at least 3,or id rather have more d dice as long as my life is at least 2.

jcb231
May 27th, 2006, 02:36 AM
What about a figure with high life (like 9 or 10) and low defense (zero or 1)....would that be a workable concept?

bobofett
May 27th, 2006, 02:41 AM
I think i'd go with charos 9 life 5 defense. and he can stay in a fight even if he got hit with a direct attack by jotun.(although he would not last much longer after that) :shock: :shock: :shock:

bobofett
May 27th, 2006, 02:43 AM
You need some resistance against an attack or else you will be hit with direct attacks evey time and you won't last too long.

jcb231
May 27th, 2006, 02:51 AM
You need some resistance against an attack or else you will be hit with direct attacks evey time and you won't last too long.

That's the point....like how Vipers aren't meant to last long. A figure with 9 life and 0 defense would have a real time limit on their usefullness.....they'd stick around and dish out some pain, but they'd have to heal or risk a quick exit. A figure like that could be powerful but not overwhelmingly point-costed I think.

Agent Minivann
May 27th, 2006, 05:15 AM
I think that it's best to have a balance between life and defense. If I had to choose one over the other it would be life. I've looked at that DW9K poster that nether made one too many times (and seen the same results one too many times).

Ultimately this is essentially a HS philosophy discussion. It's all good and fun, but the real game uses match ups. There are many potential match ups in any given battle. It's really about who has the greater ability in choosing which match ups happen that determines who wins and loses. Then there are the odd times when DW9K blanks on a single attack die and goes down in a blaze of unglory. All the talk here is essentially numbers, but if you can't get the right units to fight, then the question is moot. Then it becomes all about drafting an entire army that has pretty much the same stats so you have identicle odds no matter how poor your strategy is. I say pick a proper variety and let your mad skills take advantage of your opponents weaknesses.

TheRealQ
May 27th, 2006, 06:15 AM
I'm looking back over my numbers and it appears to form a curve rather than a straight line. At numbers greater than 6 it quickly begins to become more and more valuable. It reaches a point that not only does it reduce the effectiveness of average and powerful attacks but it completely cancels out lesser attacks.

Look at DoesntComputes numbers. A 9 Def has a 62% chance of 3 or more shields. This means an attack of 3 dice has only a 11.26% or .13(1-.62)+((.50-.13)(1-.86))+((.88-.50)(1-.97)) chance to penetrate a 9 defense. An attack of 2 only has a 5% or .25(1-.86)+.50(1-.97) chance to penetrate. This is less than half the chance where without the numbers you might expect it to be affective 2/3 of the chance.

Amazing. This has me thinking now. I am going to take these numbers and build a couple spead sheets over the next couple days at which time I will post my specific findings. That is unless I get banned before now and then. :wink: