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February 13th, 2008, 12:08 PM
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Sisyphus' Probability Tables(updated April 8, 2008)
Here are some handy probability tables for those that are interested. Each table goes from 1 to 10 attack left to right and 0 to 10 defense top to bottom unless otherwise indicated.
Use this information with caution since "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Standard Figures Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
1 0.333 0.750 1.208 1.688 2.177 2.672 3.169 3.668 4.167 4.667
2 0.222 0.556 0.958 1.403 1.872 2.354 2.845 3.339 3.837 4.335
3 0.148 0.407 0.750 1.150 1.589 2.052 2.530 3.017 3.510 4.005
4 0.099 0.296 0.580 0.932 1.334 1.770 2.230 2.705 3.189 3.680
5 0.066 0.214 0.444 0.747 1.107 1.511 1.947 2.405 2.878 3.361
6 0.044 0.154 0.337 0.593 0.910 1.278 1.685 2.121 2.579 3.050
7 0.029 0.110 0.254 0.466 0.741 1.071 1.446 1.856 2.294 2.750
8 0.020 0.078 0.190 0.363 0.598 0.889 1.230 1.612 2.026 2.464
9 0.013 0.055 0.141 0.281 0.479 0.733 1.038 1.389 1.776 2.193
10 0.009 0.039 0.105 0.216 0.380 0.599 0.869 1.187 1.546 1.939
Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound. For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
1 0.333 0.583 0.750 0.854 0.917 0.953 0.974 0.986 0.992 0.996
2 0.222 0.444 0.625 0.757 0.847 0.906 0.944 0.967 0.980 0.989
3 0.148 0.333 0.509 0.655 0.766 0.846 0.901 0.938 0.961 0.976
4 0.099 0.247 0.407 0.556 0.679 0.776 0.848 0.899 0.934 0.958
5 0.066 0.181 0.321 0.463 0.592 0.700 0.786 0.851 0.898 0.932
6 0.044 0.132 0.250 0.380 0.507 0.622 0.718 0.795 0.855 0.899
7 0.029 0.095 0.192 0.308 0.429 0.544 0.647 0.734 0.804 0.859
8 0.020 0.068 0.146 0.246 0.358 0.470 0.576 0.670 0.749 0.813
9 0.013 0.049 0.111 0.195 0.295 0.401 0.506 0.603 0.689 0.762
10 0.009 0.035 0.083 0.153 0.241 0.339 0.440 0.538 0.628 0.707
Counter Strike(Samurai, Charos) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the average damage inflicted on the attacker due to an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.167 0.083 0.042 0.021 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000
2 0.389 0.222 0.125 0.069 0.038 0.021 0.011 0.006 0.003 0.002
3 0.648 0.407 0.250 0.150 0.089 0.052 0.030 0.017 0.010 0.005
4 0.932 0.630 0.414 0.265 0.167 0.103 0.063 0.038 0.023 0.013
5 1.233 0.881 0.611 0.414 0.274 0.178 0.114 0.072 0.045 0.027
6 1.544 1.154 0.837 0.593 0.410 0.278 0.185 0.121 0.079 0.050
7 1.863 1.443 1.088 0.799 0.574 0.404 0.279 0.190 0.127 0.084
8 2.186 1.745 1.357 1.030 0.765 0.556 0.397 0.278 0.192 0.131
9 2.513 2.055 1.641 1.281 0.979 0.733 0.538 0.389 0.276 0.193
10 2.842 2.372 1.938 1.550 1.214 0.932 0.703 0.521 0.380 0.273
Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack inflicting at least one wound on the attacker when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable hits). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the attacking figure due to counter strike.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.167 0.083 0.042 0.021 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000
2 0.333 0.194 0.111 0.063 0.035 0.019 0.010 0.006 0.003 0.002
3 0.481 0.315 0.199 0.123 0.074 0.044 0.026 0.015 0.009 0.005
4 0.605 0.432 0.296 0.197 0.127 0.081 0.050 0.031 0.019 0.011
5 0.704 0.539 0.395 0.279 0.192 0.128 0.084 0.054 0.034 0.021
6 0.781 0.632 0.490 0.365 0.264 0.186 0.128 0.086 0.057 0.037
7 0.839 0.711 0.577 0.450 0.340 0.250 0.179 0.125 0.086 0.058
8 0.883 0.776 0.654 0.531 0.417 0.318 0.237 0.172 0.123 0.086
9 0.915 0.828 0.720 0.605 0.492 0.389 0.299 0.225 0.166 0.120
10 0.939 0.869 0.777 0.672 0.563 0.459 0.364 0.282 0.214 0.159
Unleashed Fury(Anubian Wolves) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)
This table shows the average damage an Anubian Wolf will cause in an attack before Unleashed Fury is rolled.
d+ d++ a+ a+d+ a+d++
0 1.775 1.975 2.150 2.275 2.475 2.650
1 1.488 1.679 1.850 1.965 2.160 2.333
2 1.236 1.417 1.581 1.680 1.869 2.038
3 1.020 1.188 1.343 1.424 1.604 1.767
4 0.837 0.991 1.136 1.198 1.367 1.522
5 0.683 0.823 0.956 1.000 1.158 1.303
6 0.554 0.681 0.802 0.830 0.975 1.111
7 0.448 0.562 0.671 0.685 0.817 0.942
8 0.362 0.462 0.559 0.563 0.682 0.796
9 0.291 0.379 0.465 0.460 0.567 0.670
10 0.233 0.310 0.385 0.375 0.470 0.562
Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, etc)
This table shows the probability that an attack from an Anubian wolf will cause at least one wound before Unleashed Fury is rolled. For defending squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
d+ d++ a+ a+d+ a+d++
0 0.862 0.887 0.900 0.931 0.944 0.950
1 0.754 0.787 0.807 0.854 0.875 0.887
2 0.648 0.686 0.713 0.768 0.795 0.813
3 0.550 0.591 0.622 0.679 0.711 0.735
4 0.462 0.504 0.538 0.592 0.628 0.655
5 0.385 0.426 0.462 0.510 0.548 0.578
6 0.318 0.358 0.394 0.435 0.473 0.506
7 0.261 0.300 0.335 0.367 0.405 0.439
8 0.213 0.249 0.283 0.308 0.345 0.378
9 0.173 0.207 0.239 0.256 0.292 0.324
10 0.140 0.171 0.201 0.212 0.246 0.277
Stinger Drain(Marro Stingers) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)
This table shows the average damage a Marro Stinger causes in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled.
N d+ d++ Na+ a+ a+d+ a+d++
0 1.500 1.475 1.575 1.675 2.000 1.875 2.000 2.125
1 1.208 1.230 1.315 1.399 1.688 1.619 1.728 1.837
2 0.958 1.011 1.081 1.151 1.403 1.380 1.474 1.567
3 0.750 0.820 0.878 0.935 1.150 1.162 1.241 1.321
4 0.580 0.658 0.704 0.751 0.932 0.967 1.033 1.100
5 0.444 0.522 0.559 0.597 0.747 0.796 0.851 0.906
6 0.337 0.410 0.440 0.470 0.593 0.649 0.694 0.740
7 0.254 0.320 0.343 0.366 0.466 0.524 0.561 0.598
8 0.190 0.247 0.266 0.284 0.363 0.420 0.450 0.479
9 0.141 0.190 0.204 0.218 0.281 0.334 0.358 0.381
10 0.105 0.145 0.156 0.167 0.216 0.263 0.282 0.301
Wound Chance: Code:
Defense (d+ = +1 to D20 rolls, a+ = +1 attack bonus, N = without Stinger Drain)
This table shows the probability of a Marro Stinger causing at least one wound in an attack before Stinger Drain is rolled. For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
N d+ d++ Na+ a+ a+d+ a+d++
0 0.875 0.734 0.781 0.828 0.938 0.767 0.816 0.864
1 0.750 0.657 0.700 0.743 0.854 0.718 0.764 0.809
2 0.625 0.573 0.610 0.648 0.757 0.655 0.698 0.740
3 0.509 0.488 0.520 0.553 0.655 0.585 0.623 0.662
4 0.407 0.407 0.435 0.463 0.556 0.513 0.547 0.580
5 0.321 0.335 0.358 0.381 0.463 0.441 0.471 0.500
6 0.250 0.271 0.290 0.309 0.380 0.374 0.399 0.425
7 0.192 0.217 0.233 0.248 0.308 0.313 0.334 0.356
8 0.146 0.172 0.184 0.197 0.246 0.258 0.276 0.294
9 0.111 0.135 0.145 0.154 0.195 0.211 0.226 0.241
10 0.083 0.105 0.113 0.120 0.153 0.171 0.183 0.195
Double Strike(Minions of Utgar, Omnicron Snipers) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000
1 0.833 1.750 2.708 3.688 4.677 5.672 6.669 7.668 8.667 9.667
2 0.667 1.500 2.417 3.375 4.354 5.344 6.339 7.336 8.335 9.334
3 0.519 1.269 2.139 3.072 4.037 5.019 6.010 7.005 8.003 9.001
4 0.395 1.062 1.880 2.781 3.728 4.699 5.684 6.676 7.671 8.669
5 0.296 0.881 1.640 2.504 3.427 4.385 5.361 6.348 7.341 8.338
6 0.219 0.724 1.422 2.242 3.137 4.077 5.043 6.024 7.013 8.007
7 0.161 0.591 1.224 1.996 2.859 3.777 4.729 5.702 6.687 7.678
8 0.117 0.478 1.046 1.767 2.593 3.486 4.422 5.385 6.363 7.350
9 0.085 0.384 0.888 1.556 2.341 3.205 4.122 5.072 6.042 7.024
10 0.061 0.306 0.749 1.362 2.103 2.936 3.830 4.765 5.725 6.701
Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack made with double strike(where each skull rolled counts as two hits) causing at least one wound. For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
1 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
2 0.444 0.694 0.833 0.910 0.951 0.974 0.986 0.993 0.996 0.998
3 0.370 0.620 0.778 0.873 0.928 0.960 0.978 0.988 0.993 0.996
4 0.296 0.543 0.718 0.831 0.901 0.943 0.968 0.982 0.990 0.995
5 0.230 0.469 0.656 0.786 0.870 0.923 0.955 0.974 0.985 0.992
6 0.176 0.401 0.594 0.737 0.836 0.900 0.940 0.965 0.979 0.988
7 0.132 0.338 0.533 0.687 0.797 0.873 0.922 0.953 0.972 0.983
8 0.098 0.283 0.474 0.634 0.756 0.842 0.900 0.938 0.962 0.977
9 0.072 0.234 0.417 0.581 0.712 0.809 0.876 0.922 0.951 0.970
10 0.052 0.192 0.364 0.529 0.667 0.772 0.849 0.902 0.938 0.961
One Shield Defense(Crixus) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack defended by a figure with one shield defense(i.e. Crixus, if the defending figure rolls at least one shield, the most damage it can recieve is one wound).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
1 0.333 0.750 1.167 1.563 1.938 2.297 2.646 2.988 3.327 3.663
2 0.222 0.556 0.903 1.229 1.528 1.802 2.058 2.302 2.537 2.767
3 0.148 0.407 0.694 0.970 1.220 1.443 1.644 1.828 1.999 2.162
4 0.099 0.296 0.531 0.765 0.982 1.174 1.343 1.492 1.626 1.748
5 0.066 0.214 0.403 0.603 0.793 0.965 1.116 1.246 1.359 1.459
6 0.044 0.154 0.305 0.473 0.642 0.799 0.938 1.059 1.162 1.250
7 0.029 0.110 0.229 0.370 0.518 0.662 0.794 0.910 1.009 1.093
8 0.020 0.078 0.171 0.288 0.417 0.549 0.674 0.787 0.885 0.969
9 0.013 0.055 0.127 0.223 0.335 0.454 0.571 0.682 0.780 0.866
10 0.009 0.039 0.094 0.172 0.267 0.374 0.483 0.590 0.689 0.776
Gift of the Empress Aura(Einar Imperium/Empress Kiova) Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure rerolls all defense die that do not show shields(i.e. Einar Imperium in range of Empress Kiova's aura).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
1 0.222 0.472 0.667 0.799 0.882 0.932 0.962 0.979 0.988 0.994
2 0.099 0.272 0.458 0.621 0.747 0.837 0.898 0.937 0.962 0.978
3 0.044 0.148 0.293 0.448 0.590 0.709 0.800 0.866 0.913 0.944
4 0.020 0.078 0.177 0.304 0.439 0.567 0.679 0.769 0.838 0.890
5 0.009 0.040 0.103 0.197 0.310 0.432 0.549 0.654 0.742 0.813
6 0.004 0.020 0.058 0.122 0.210 0.314 0.425 0.534 0.633 0.719
7 0.002 0.010 0.032 0.074 0.137 0.220 0.316 0.419 0.520 0.615
8 0.001 0.005 0.017 0.043 0.087 0.149 0.227 0.317 0.413 0.509
9 0.000 0.002 0.009 0.025 0.053 0.097 0.158 0.233 0.318 0.408
10 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.014 0.032 0.062 0.107 0.165 0.237 0.317
Shields of Valor(Sentinels of Jandar) Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound in which the defending figure recieves two blocks for every shield rolled(i.e. Seninels of Jandar). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
1 0.333 0.500 0.625 0.729 0.813 0.875 0.919 0.949 0.969 0.981
2 0.222 0.333 0.444 0.556 0.656 0.741 0.810 0.863 0.904 0.933
3 0.148 0.222 0.315 0.417 0.516 0.608 0.688 0.757 0.815 0.861
4 0.099 0.148 0.222 0.309 0.398 0.486 0.569 0.646 0.714 0.773
5 0.066 0.099 0.156 0.226 0.302 0.382 0.461 0.538 0.611 0.677
6 0.044 0.066 0.110 0.165 0.227 0.295 0.367 0.440 0.512 0.580
7 0.029 0.044 0.077 0.119 0.169 0.226 0.288 0.354 0.422 0.489
8 0.020 0.029 0.054 0.085 0.124 0.171 0.223 0.281 0.342 0.405
9 0.013 0.020 0.037 0.061 0.091 0.128 0.172 0.221 0.274 0.332
10 0.009 0.013 0.026 0.043 0.066 0.095 0.131 0.171 0.218 0.268
Heroic Defense Aura(Hatamoto Taro with Samurai/Ashigaru) Average Damage: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the average amount of damage caused in an attack when the defending figure recieves Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar symbols count as shields).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000
1 0.250 0.625 1.063 1.531 2.016 2.508 3.004 3.502 4.001 4.500
2 0.125 0.375 0.719 1.125 1.570 2.039 2.521 3.012 3.506 4.003
3 0.063 0.219 0.469 0.797 1.184 1.611 2.066 2.539 3.023 3.513
4 0.031 0.125 0.297 0.547 0.865 1.238 1.652 2.096 2.559 3.036
5 0.016 0.070 0.184 0.365 0.615 0.927 1.290 1.693 2.126 2.581
6 0.008 0.039 0.111 0.238 0.427 0.677 0.983 1.338 1.732 2.156
7 0.004 0.021 0.066 0.152 0.290 0.483 0.733 1.036 1.384 1.770
8 0.002 0.012 0.039 0.096 0.193 0.338 0.536 0.786 1.085 1.427
9 0.001 0.006 0.023 0.059 0.126 0.232 0.384 0.585 0.835 1.131
10 0.000 0.003 0.013 0.036 0.081 0.156 0.270 0.427 0.631 0.881
Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Heroic Defense Aura(when Einar Symbols count as shields). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969 0.984 0.992 0.996 0.998 0.999
1 0.250 0.500 0.688 0.813 0.891 0.938 0.965 0.980 0.989 0.994
2 0.125 0.313 0.500 0.656 0.773 0.855 0.910 0.945 0.967 0.981
3 0.063 0.188 0.344 0.500 0.637 0.746 0.828 0.887 0.927 0.954
4 0.031 0.109 0.227 0.363 0.500 0.623 0.726 0.806 0.867 0.910
5 0.016 0.063 0.145 0.254 0.377 0.500 0.613 0.709 0.788 0.849
6 0.008 0.035 0.090 0.172 0.274 0.387 0.500 0.605 0.696 0.773
7 0.004 0.020 0.055 0.113 0.194 0.291 0.395 0.500 0.598 0.685
8 0.002 0.011 0.033 0.073 0.133 0.212 0.304 0.402 0.500 0.593
9 0.001 0.006 0.019 0.046 0.090 0.151 0.227 0.315 0.407 0.500
10 0.000 0.003 0.011 0.029 0.059 0.105 0.166 0.240 0.324 0.412
Tough(Gorillinators) Wound Chance: Code:
Attack/Defense
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound when the defending figure has Tough(when defending figure receives one automatic shield). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the defending figure.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 0.000 0.167 0.375 0.563 0.708 0.813 0.883 0.928 0.957 0.975
2 0.000 0.111 0.278 0.451 0.604 0.726 0.816 0.880 0.923 0.952
3 0.000 0.074 0.204 0.356 0.506 0.636 0.741 0.821 0.879 0.920
4 0.000 0.049 0.148 0.278 0.417 0.548 0.662 0.755 0.827 0.880
Poison Sting(Sujoah) Code:
This table shows the average damage caused by Sojoah's Poison Sting Special Attack and the probability that Sojoah's Poison Sting kills a figure by rolling a 20.
Average Damage Kill Chance
0 2.93750 0.09375
1 2.54167 0.08542
2 2.15972 0.07569
3 1.80556 0.06551
4 1.48765 0.05556
5 1.20988 0.04630
6 0.97257 0.03800
7 0.77366 0.03077
8 0.60966 0.02463
9 0.47635 0.01951
10 0.36932 0.01531
Counter Strike vs. Double Strike Wound Chance: Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike
(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as
unblockable hits). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying
the attacking figure due to counter strike.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.167 0.083 0.042 0.021 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000
2 0.278 0.139 0.069 0.035 0.017 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001
3 0.370 0.194 0.102 0.053 0.028 0.014 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001
4 0.457 0.256 0.142 0.078 0.042 0.023 0.012 0.007 0.004 0.002
5 0.539 0.323 0.189 0.108 0.061 0.034 0.019 0.010 0.006 0.003
6 0.616 0.392 0.241 0.144 0.084 0.048 0.028 0.016 0.009 0.005
7 0.685 0.461 0.296 0.183 0.111 0.066 0.038 0.022 0.013 0.007
8 0.746 0.528 0.353 0.227 0.141 0.086 0.052 0.031 0.018 0.010
9 0.798 0.591 0.411 0.273 0.176 0.110 0.068 0.041 0.024 0.014
10 0.842 0.649 0.468 0.321 0.213 0.137 0.086 0.053 0.033 0.020
Wound Chance(with Heroic Defense Aura): Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike
(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as
unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as
shields). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the
attacking figure due to counter strike.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.250 0.125 0.063 0.031 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000
2 0.375 0.188 0.094 0.047 0.023 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.001
3 0.500 0.281 0.156 0.086 0.047 0.025 0.014 0.007 0.004 0.002
4 0.625 0.391 0.234 0.137 0.078 0.044 0.024 0.013 0.007 0.004
5 0.734 0.500 0.320 0.197 0.118 0.069 0.040 0.023 0.013 0.007
6 0.820 0.602 0.410 0.267 0.167 0.103 0.062 0.036 0.021 0.012
7 0.883 0.691 0.500 0.342 0.225 0.144 0.089 0.055 0.033 0.019
8 0.926 0.768 0.586 0.421 0.289 0.192 0.124 0.078 0.048 0.029
9 0.954 0.830 0.665 0.500 0.358 0.247 0.165 0.107 0.068 0.043
10 0.972 0.878 0.734 0.576 0.429 0.306 0.212 0.142 0.093 0.060
Code:
This table shows the average damage caused to the attacker with double strike(when each skull rolled counts
as two hits) on an attack against a figure with counter strike(when excess shields count as unblockable
hits).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.167 0.083 0.042 0.021 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000
2 0.333 0.167 0.083 0.042 0.021 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.001
3 0.519 0.269 0.139 0.072 0.037 0.019 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.001
4 0.728 0.395 0.213 0.114 0.061 0.032 0.017 0.009 0.005 0.003
5 0.963 0.547 0.307 0.171 0.094 0.051 0.028 0.015 0.008 0.004
6 1.219 0.724 0.422 0.242 0.137 0.077 0.043 0.024 0.013 0.007
7 1.494 0.924 0.557 0.329 0.192 0.110 0.063 0.035 0.020 0.011
8 1.784 1.145 0.713 0.434 0.259 0.153 0.089 0.051 0.029 0.017
9 2.085 1.384 0.888 0.556 0.341 0.205 0.122 0.072 0.042 0.024
10 2.394 1.639 1.083 0.695 0.437 0.269 0.163 0.098 0.058 0.034
Code:
This table shows the probability of an attack causing at least one wound to the attacker with double strike
(when each skull rolled counts as two hits) when the defender has counter strike(when excess shields count as
unblockable hits) when the defending figure is boosted by Heroic Defense Aura(Einar symbols count as
shields). For squad figures and 1 life heroes it also shows the probability of an attack destroying the
attacking figure due to counter strike.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.250 0.125 0.063 0.031 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000
2 0.375 0.188 0.094 0.047 0.023 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.001
3 0.500 0.281 0.156 0.086 0.047 0.025 0.014 0.007 0.004 0.002
4 0.625 0.391 0.234 0.137 0.078 0.044 0.024 0.013 0.007 0.004
5 0.734 0.500 0.320 0.197 0.118 0.069 0.040 0.023 0.013 0.007
6 0.820 0.602 0.410 0.267 0.167 0.103 0.062 0.036 0.021 0.012
7 0.883 0.691 0.500 0.342 0.225 0.144 0.089 0.055 0.033 0.019
8 0.926 0.768 0.586 0.421 0.289 0.192 0.124 0.078 0.048 0.029
9 0.954 0.830 0.665 0.500 0.358 0.247 0.165 0.107 0.068 0.043
10 0.972 0.878 0.734 0.576 0.429 0.306 0.212 0.142 0.093 0.060
 Last edited by Sisyphus : March 10th, 2009 at 10:12 AM. Sisyphus' Probability Tables Tournament Director: Makes running a tournament easy. Latest Battle Report: Florida Frenzy 2 
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#2
February 13th, 2008, 01:51 PM
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This should be a sticky. It gets referenced in many threads.
I'm Mr. Barkypants, and I'm a mix of ol schoo and new schoo....
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#4
February 13th, 2008, 05:28 PM
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Awesome, awesome, sticky-worthy post.
One interesting takeaway I noticed is that when attack and defense dice are tied, the chance of at least one wound is tied at 3-3, in the attacker's favor at 4-4 and above, and in the defender's favor at 2-2 and below. That right there is going to change the way I play some squad figures, I think.
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#5
March 12th, 2008, 11:55 AM
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Sisyphus, great post. I wanted to save this thread from becoming buried by congratulating you for posting such helpful information.
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#6
March 12th, 2008, 01:49 PM
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I like it. Very helpful! Although I would continue to update it and maybe label your tables a little better so we know what column represents dice and what column represents damage inflicted.
AoCS Comic,AoCS: Finding of Steve, AoCS Holiday '08, AoCS: Holiday '09, AoCS: Conflict Brewing, Chedwick and Sven Comic Blog
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#7
March 12th, 2008, 05:40 PM
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I was just thinking about this thread today, and how I should bump it. Useful stuff. I think the biggest lesson for me at least is to remember that you still need one more Skull than shield to wound, and one more shield or more to get a counterstrike.
Since 4 Attack dice equal about as much skulls on average as 6 Defense gets in shields, you need one more attack die to have about a 50% chance to wound. I like comparing something to a coin toss, because 50% odds are the easiest for me to wrap my head around in a game. Against squad figures... 1 A, >50% chance of wounding 0 D and below. 2A, "" 1 D 3A, "" 3 D 4A, "" 4 D 5A, "" 6 D 6A, "" 7 D 7A, "" 9 D Quote:
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#8
March 12th, 2008, 05:50 PM
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How about we get it stickied!
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#9
March 28th, 2008, 10:22 PM
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I read the threads title as Syphilis problem tables. So, yeah, this thread is a bit different than I thought.....
My Signature
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#10
March 29th, 2008, 11:32 PM
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Ah, cool my thread is stickied. I generated some tables for Hatamoto Taro. I'll add them when I get back to the computer in which they are on.
Quote:
 Sisyphus' Probability Tables Tournament Director: Makes running a tournament easy. Latest Battle Report: Florida Frenzy 2
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#11
March 30th, 2008, 12:14 AM
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I'm glad to see this thread got stickied. I actually printed out a few of the probability tables when you first made this thread. It helped me realize why I could never put a wound on that stupid soulborg
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#12
March 30th, 2008, 12:15 AM
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Quote:
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