Consistency vs. Variance in Ability

[The_X_Marker]

Originally Posted by happyjosiah

This is a serious logical error. Chilling touch has a 40% chance, yes. But that does not translate to "4 in every 10 games" unless Cyprien only rolls for Chilling Touch once per game! With his stealth flying, he can gain the high ground in almost every attack, probably deal at least a wound, and have a 40% chance to deal another. And every time he deals a wound, he heals!

Already established Cyprien is a high variance unit that can be played consistently, however, I'm surprised at myself for not catching my error there. Oh well, shouldn't post after a late night out, I guess.

Originally Posted by MegaSilver

Or you could just have him [DED] costed at 30 points. He would certainly see more play. Points also has a great play in usefulness; if a unit has a good point value it is sometimes worth the risk to put them in there, even if they don't necessarily perform well that game, they would still most likely be worth near their points.

Originally Posted by happyjosiah

You say "only on point cost" as if it's such a minor thing, but we are talking about a difference of 115 points! That is the real reason for their different power rankings.

I completely forgot the importance of point values in my entire thought process, as well.

Points definitely do matter, Isamu will win out over many other units, consistent, or not, because of his point value!

Originally Posted by Rÿchean

In addition to the other replies the phrase "in a tournament setting" should not be overlooked.

Very true. As tournaments are a big thing, the standard tournament setting does play a part in the units chosen.

Originally Posted by Rÿchean

Units that are considered consistent usually show that consistency over a 4-5 round event; units with high variance usually show that over 4-5 rounds. Since most events require you to win all the games you play to become the overall winner, high variance units lose out. Over the course of 4-5 games they will usually fail you at some point, and that failure often means a loss which prohibits you from being the overall winner.

Also very true, the lack of consistency in a tournament could cost the tournament. High variance is more of a casual thing, it seems.

Originally Posted by Rÿchean

Lastly, power rankings are someone's opinion. I have never fully agreed with the rankings, and I never will. Yes, they do have some value but I have always felt the rankings by spider and now jexik carry far too much weight around here. (don't kid yourself into thinking it is the community's opinion and that the discussion creates a consensus, it doesn't; if it did DED would have a slightly higher rating but spider/jexik feel strongly about their assessment of DED and have been unswayed by the debate.)

I partially agree with the power rankings. They are mostly true, as far as competition goes, and hold up to theoryscaping. However, if the power rankings weren't made, I also feel that anyone could still rank units of power, and would still come up with the current A rated armies.

However, the question still stands: In your opinion, what makes a higher variance unit more competitive? Is it simply one factor, such as the stats or points, or is it many factors?

[Jexik]

I don't think it's all variance.

Fen Hydra, Q9, Nilfheim, Isamu, (pretty much any Hero really) are all high variance units.

What makes Cyprien good is how he can lock down games in some cases, and outright win with a lucky roll in others. What reduces his tournament viability isn't his variance in the d20, but his variable utility in a double blind environment where you can just run into a bad match-up where he's less useful against important enemy units.

What made Venocs bad for awhile was that they had 0 defense and no range.

Gorillinators are low variance, but also not the best deal for the price.

I wrote too much about this awhile ago...

[dok]

I don't think I'd agree that Q9 is high-variance. Sure, he can whiff and die quickly, but he's not particularly prone to that. It's also basically impossible to put Q9 in a position where he can't attack in a useful way, unlike most other unique units.

This may sound weird coming from me, but for this reason, I actually don't think Q9 benefits as much from deathreavers as several other units do. Obviously, it's a strong combo, because hey, Q9 and deathreavers, but Braxas/Nilfheim/Airborne/et al get a greater benefit from that screen.

[happyjosiah]

Originally Posted by dok

This may sound weird coming from me, but for this reason, I actually don't think Q9 benefits as much from deathreavers as several other units do. Obviously, it's a strong combo, because hey, Q9 and deathreavers, but Braxas/Nilfheim/Airborne/et al get a greater benefit from that screen.

I agree. Part of what makes Q9 so brutal is that he actual can survive a few melee figures getting to him, unlike most other powerful ranged units.

[infectedsloth]

Originally Posted by The_X_Marker

However, the question still stands: In your opinion, what makes a higher variance unit more competitive? Is it simply one factor, such as the stats or points, or is it many factors?

I believe there are four factors that determine if a figure with a high variance power can be competitive in a tournament environment, they include stats and points like you said, but I also include there other powers and synergies benefits they receive. Those four factors must then be analyzed not as separate entity but collectively to determine the order marker worth of that figure if that power failed in a given turn. A figure like deadeye Dans order marker worth if he fails at sharpshooting is almost nothing, whereas Ne-Gok-Sa worth is much greater if he fails to mind shackle because for the most part he has higher stats and he has bonding with the Romans.

When analyzing figures without a high variance power things get more tricky. I think the best way to determine that type of figures value is to use your own personal experiences as well as other and the card attributes to determine how well and poor that figure can conceivable perform in a double blind competitive environment. After that you must approximate the percentages of a poor of good performance occurring, with that information you can create a rough point value for a unit. If your new point value is above the stated point value then that figure will generally performer well competitively. I do not assert that I do this exactly on a conscious level but I do do it on a subconscious level and I don't think I'm alone.

All that being said I generally try to avoid analyzing figures individually, because Heroscape is not fought in a one on one gladiatorialesque(word?) combat. Which leads me to the 5th variable that I did not think of earlier, and that is ease in which figures with without any synergies benefit the unit. When making an army with a high variance unit the goal should always be decreasing the potential of a poor performance and increasing there potential for a good performance. The Airborne Elites are a good example, they are one of the highest variance squad figures in the game but combined with rats there variance is decreased greatly and there potential is also increased, which should be the goal of all armies using high variance figures.

Great article X, it really made me think.

[kolakoski]

Well met!

With the addition of Elaria and, especially, Myrddin to the "official" canon, another level of complexity is added to the question. For instance (quoting from a blog comment):

"Kaemon in for Runa.

Black Elarians
210 Drow x 3
130 Kee-Mo-Shi
120 Kaemon
90 Myrddin
60 Elaria
10 Isamu
750, 14 spaces

I played a couple of turns with them, and realized that the best OM efficiency I could create would be to have the Drow and Elaria operate in unison, have Kee-Mo-Shi and Myrddin do the same nearby, with Kaemon and Isamu for cleanup/backup. Runa was redundant with Kee-Mo-Shi in this build."

It could be argued that a more competitive way to go about it would be to play Kee-Mo-Shi/Myrddin or Drow/Elaria, and fill in with the usual A-A+ ranged suspects. Even so, in this scenario, they have lots of opportunities to shine.

In this army:

Myrddin's Imperials
200 Arashara
200 Romans x 4
100 Marcus
100 Mindflayer
90 Myrddin
50 Me-Burq-Sa
10 Isamu
750, 23 spaces

Myrddin has a myriad of units to support, with much easier OM management. Again, it could be argued that replacing Myrddin/Mindflayer with Ne-Gok-Sa/Syvarris (or Mindflayer/Isamu for the AE, unavailable in this scenario due to no flying) would be more competitive.

My question: At what point does a consistent number of game breaking opportunities trump general consistency?

[Jexik]

Originally Posted by dok

I don't think I'd agree that Q9 is high-variance. Sure, he can whiff and die quickly, but he's not particularly prone to that. It's also basically impossible to put Q9 in a position where he can't attack in a useful way, unlike most other unique units.

He's either worth 200 points or he's worth 500 points of B figures. That's a big margin.

If he were to cost 270 points, he'd be more of an appropriate gamble.

[Aldin]

I think that a unit is only truly high variance when it has a power that you wouldn't necessarily expect to function at least once per game. Is Braxas high variance? Not really. You can count on her nailing a couple of squaddies per OM and a hero over the course of the game should she survive long enough. Her weakness is large and huge figures (and that 3 defense).

Is Deadeye Dan high variance? Absolutely! Who knows if he'll take down a single figure in a typical game? Cyprien wounds consistently with his d20 power in addition to having otherwise useful abilities. NeGokSa is a damage sump and a threat even if he never gets in a single mindshackle roll. KeMoShi, on the other hand is too fragile to get enough d20 attempts to know what she can do in a typical game.

That's why large quantities of Venoc Vipers make them good. You've taken a high variance question of whether or not they'll get enough frenzies and made the answer "yes" simply by ensuring enough d20 rolls. So in a way, the real question is how do I give high variance abilities enough opportunities to function to make them consistent?

~Aldin, smoothing the curve

[kolakoski]

Originally Posted by kolakoski

Well met!

With the addition of Elaria and, especially, Myrddin to the "official" canon, another level of complexity is added to the question. For instance (quoting from a blog comment):

"Kaemon in for Runa.

Black Elarians
210 Drow x 3
130 Kee-Mo-Shi
120 Kaemon
90 Myrddin
60 Elaria
10 Isamu
750, 14 spaces

I played a couple of turns with them, and realized that the best OM efficiency I could create would be to have the Drow and Elaria operate in unison, have Kee-Mo-Shi and Myrddin do the same nearby, with Kaemon and Isamu for cleanup/backup. Runa was redundant with Kee-Mo-Shi in this build."

It could be argued that a more competitive way to go about it would be to play Kee-Mo-Shi/Myrddin or Drow/Elaria, and fill in with the usual A-A+ ranged suspects. Even so, in this scenario, they have lots of opportunities to shine.

In this army:

Myrddin's Imperials
200 Arashara
200 Romans x 4
100 Marcus
100 Mindflayer
90 Myrddin
50 Me-Burq-Sa
10 Isamu
750, 23 spaces

Myrddin has a myriad of units to support, with much easier OM management. Again, it could be argued that replacing Myrddin/Mindflayer with Ne-Gok-Sa/Syvarris (or Mindflayer/Isamu for the AE, unavailable in this scenario due to no flying) would be more competitive.

My question: At what point does a consistent number of game breaking opportunities trump general consistency?

Originally Posted by Aldin

So in a way, the real question is how do I give high variance abilities enough opportunities to function to make them consistent?

~Aldin, smoothing the curve

Well met!

Isn't that what I said?

~kolakoski, whose curve was already smooth

[infectedsloth]

Originally Posted by kolakoski

My question: At what point does a consistent number of game breaking opportunities trump general consistency?

When that figure can successfully use it's power enough to get his points back consistently, the hard part is figuring out which unit can get there points back consistently or the course of many games not just one or two.

[Agent Minivann]

Originally Posted by Aldin

Is Deadeye Dan high variance? Absolutely! Who knows if he'll take down a single figure in a typical game?

Depends on which special is being used. A single attack die with no defense is going to kill a squaddie half the time it is used, and it has that obscene range to go with it. There are a lot of (all) baseball players who would love to get a hit 50% of the time. Sharpshooter is indeed a high variance power, but his Ullar Enhanced Rifle Special Attack is pretty reliable.