100% Theoryscape

[ElvenEnvy]

The Repulsors and Atlaga are the only units I see with a chance to make it to the Winner's Circle. I could maybe see the Protectors, the Caupans, and Brave Arrow being at the top 20.

The Repulsors kill Soulbourge heavy armies (Q9, Trons, Reavers) and do well against most other armies.
Atlaga's Kyrie enhancement and Bolt will probably make some builds with the MoU, PoU, and Sentinals.
The Protector play like flying stingers, who've done well, and their Arbalest can destroy heroes.
I've been told the Steamroller beats the Knights most times so that tells me they will be better than the current top melee army and therefor take their spot in the top.
Brave Arrow is purely my speculation. I think between the MTR builds and people using him as a filler (some say the best 50 points in the game) he'll make it there.

I don't have a prediction for who will win, but I'd like to see somebody new to the top scene.

[IAmBatman]

Originally Posted by ElvenEnvy

I've been told the Steamroller beats the Knights most times so that tells me they will be better than the current top melee army and therefor take their spot in the top.

Here's the problem with that line of thinking, IMO. I think that Steamroller beats Knights one-on-one, but Knights does better against most of the rest of the field than Steamroller does.

[ElvenEnvy]

Originally Posted by IAmBatman

Here's the problem with that line of thinking, IMO. I think that Steamroller beats Knights one-on-one, but Knights does better against most of the rest of the field than Steamroller does.

That line of thinking does have a problem; but I think the Steamroller does well a tad less than the Knights against the armies they do well against, and they struggle just a tad less against the armies the Knights struggle against (Crixus does better against Range than most Human Champs and Spartacus is a beatstick).
I think that it comes down to the steamroller beating the Knights one-on-one to decide who's better. This is just 100% Theoryscape though.

[IAmBatman]

Very true. One of these days I'm going to have to playtest something and post results here just to spite the intent of this thread.

[Sarpedon]

Greetings, everyone.

Summer (in North America) officially starts on the 21st of June. We're almost there. That number reminds me of the d20 in Heroscape. The d20 in Heroscape is used by many units to a greater or lesser degree and they are considered competitive or not partly, but not mostly, on the basis of the rolls needed to trigger the ability: we already know this.

Of all the non-Marvel units that can make use of the d20, I think the Marro Stingers are the most popular/competitive. Strangely enough, good players seldom resort to using Stinger Drain. Most will use it only to get through high defenses: it's usually far better to get an extra attack die by shooting from heights. What are the characteristics of a good d20 ability? Here's what I think...

* Reliable: You usually won't get many opportunities to use it, so you want at least a 20-25% chance of success each time. Here we should mention the Nakita Agents. Their Smoke Powder is statistically pretty reliable, but only when they get to use it (only against normal attacks).

* Optional: Some units, unlike the Marro Stingers, are completely useless without their d20 ability/attack. Runa is perhaps the best example. It's just too risky to rely on the d20 (if it has low odds), especially if the unit is expensive. If Runa's special ability doesn't come through for her against a significant hero/unique squad member before she is destroyed, she will have been a waste.

* Practical: A unit with a d20 ability, such as Mindshackle, is great only if you can get adjacent to a unique unit. Most often, a good opponent will not give you the chance to use it at all. No matter how good the ability is, if you only get to use it once in a blue moon, it's usually not worth it. The Nakita's Smoke Powder is much the same: an opponent can circumvent it by using special (ranged) attacks.

* Low-risk/high reward: The Marro Stingers, again, are a good example. If Stinger Drain fails completely (5 > very unlikely), the results are not ruinous. If it succeeds, the benefits are far greater. Some units, like Braxas, have a high reward, but high-risk as well (she has to expose herself to ranged attacks in order to use her ability and she costs 210 points!). It would take several rounds for her to earn her keep unless she gets lucky against unique heroes.

These cover most of my ideas. The d20 is a fun part of the game and can be great against better opponents. Just make sure you don't (completely) rely on it at tournaments: you'll regret it far more often than not.

[nyys]

Braxas certainly didn't mind killing my Raelin in the first OM at my last tourney.

Very true though. A d20 army can be a lot of fun, though you'll definitely have a game or two where you'll miss every roll and be dominated, but you'll also have games where you can do no wrong and all your opponent can do it grin and bear it.

Unless you really don't care about your results, I wouldn't suggest bringing an all d20 army (or at least an unreliable d20) to a tourney, though there are definitely places for the D20ers in competitive play.

[clancampbell]

As nyys has said, Braxas can be a very dominant d20 user. Especially against squads. I played a game just last night using Braxas, it was fun making minions go bye-bye.
The d20 may not be reliable, but it can make your heart stop. How many times have you been against Ne-gok-sa, Cyprien, or Braxas, and prayed that they would fail their d20 roll that would nerf your hero.
I think the Tarn Vikings and Me-burq-sa could be some of the best units with a d20 abillity. Me-burq-sa's is an interesting power and if you miss it, he still has a good attack, and is well worth the points. The Tarn, as long as you don't count it, have a great d20 power.

[Aldin]

Originally Posted by Sarpedon

What are the characteristics of a good d20 ability? Here's what I think...

* Reliable: You usually won't get many opportunities to use it, so you want at least a 20-25% chance of success each time.

* Low-risk/high reward: The Marro Stingers, again, are a good example. If Stinger Drain fails completely (6 > very unlikely), the results are not ruinous.

Uh, Sarpedon?

~Aldin, unluckily

[nyys]

Originally Posted by clancampbell

The d20 may not be reliable, but it can make your heart stop. How many times have you been against Ne-gok-sa, Cyprien, or Braxas, and prayed that they would fail their d20 roll that would nerf your hero.

This is a great point and get lost a bit in the analysis. Granted you never build an army against being mindshackled (or any of the other low probability D20 powers), and even though you know it's very unlikely your opponent will succeed, just before that die is rolled we all say a little prayer to the Scape Gods that the 'impossible' won't happen. It really makes for a more exciting game.

[killercactus]

Originally Posted by Sarpedon

* Optional: Some units, unlike the Marro Stingers, are completely useless without their d20 ability/attack. Runa is perhaps the best example. It's just too risky to rely on the d20 (if it has low odds), especially if the unit is expensive. If Runa's special ability doesn't come through for her against a significant hero/unique squad member before she is destroyed, she will have been a waste.

This is not true (or at least, not always true, but any figure can be a waste). Runa can provide a very significant distraction that enables the Minions of Utgar to close distance (like engaging Q9 to keep fire off of the Minions until they get there). She's also outstanding at catching the Krav when they're annoying your Minions, or holding a glyph after your Minion kills the figure on it. Utgar's Orders is really a nice ability that she benefits from. Mitonsoul is just a bonus and a distraction for your opponent that sometimes wins you the game.

Sudema is far less useful without her D20 ability than Runa.

[/rant]

Originally Posted by Sarpedon

* Low-risk/high reward: The Marro Stingers, again, are a good example. If Stinger Drain fails completely (6 > very unlikely), the results are not ruinous.

The Stingers have to roll 4 or less to fail completely, which is even more unlikely. However, I'd argue that the results can be ruinous. There have been multiple times that the lost attacks from a failed Stinger Drain cost me the game.

[Aldin]

Originally Posted by nyys

...even though you know it's very unlikely your opponent will succeed, just before that die is rolled we all say a little prayer to the Scape Gods that the 'impossible' won't happen. It really makes for a more exciting game.

I once had a game come down to my Runa vs. my opponent's Concan, and yeah... the D20 roll every OM had us both on edge

~Aldin, who won... but without Mitonsoul kicking in

[Sarpedon]

Good catch, Aldin and Killercactus. I meant to write "5" instead of "6". I've corrected the error on the original post. To Aldin's point, when I say "reliable", I mean relatively reliable. A frenzy from the Venoc Vipers, for example, is far more reliable than a Mindshackle (unless it's heavily boosted). Runa and Sudema both need their d20 abilities to work for a player to reap full/worthwhile-value from them.

I agree that Runa is more useful than Sudema without it and that neither is entirely useless without their d20 ability, but then neither is Hatamoto Taro. However, the odds of success are very low. This is why you'll rarely (if ever) see them form part of an army that finishes first in a (highly) competitive tournament like Gen Con.

Finally, regarding the Stinger Drain as "ruinous", I think it rarely is. You can always cite an example to the contrary, but I'm, as usual, speaking generally. If you're in a situation where you think using Stinger Drain might be ruinous if it fails, then, man, by all means, don't use it! There is no substitute for smart play and there is no cure for it's opposite. I'm not suggesting that such was the case, but, if an ability is not used at the right time, it will usually be counter-productive. My point was that some units, such as Sudema, always have to go for broke to earn their keep. Since they fail more often than not, it's usually not wise to draft them for tournament play.